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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
551
FXUS62 KTAE 141923
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
323 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2013


.NEAR TERM [Tonight]...
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Scattered convection will continue through the remainder of the
afternoon and into the evening hours, generally confined to the
southern third of the forecast area. Drier air has moved into the
northern two-thirds of the forecast area, limiting convection there.
A pulse severe storm or two cannot be ruled out through the early
evening hours across the Florida big bend where a strongly unstable
airmass resides with steep mid-level lapse rates and mid-level dry
air. Convection should begin to weaken after sunset.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday Night]...
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Surface trough right along the gulf coast is forecast to weaken
on Saturday as the upper trough slides east and ridging builds
aloft. With a drier airmass in place and minimal forcing, expect
only isolated afternoon convection with the seabreeze. High
temperatures should be a bit warmer on Saturday, especially to the
west closer to the ridge, where mid 90s are on tap away from the
coast.

The ridge is forecast to flatten on Sunday, with a modest
increase in deep layer moisture. This should allow for slightly
higher PoPs associated with the seabreeze. High temperatures will
remain in the lower to mid 90s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM [Monday through Thursday]...
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The tri-state area will be on the southern periphery of the
faster westerlies early next week with scattered afternoon/evening
convection expected. Depending on the timing of a shortwave passing
to the north and its associated surface boundary, rain chances may
be higher on Tuesday through Thursday (especially over the
northern zones). Temperatures are expected to remain near seasonal
norms.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...
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[Through 18z Saturday] Conditions should remain primarily VFR with
isolated to scattered convection occasionally affecting areas
around KECP, KTLH, and KVLD through the early evening hours before
diminishing. The best chance of seeing any convection at the
terminal out of those three sites is at KTLH.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
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Surface trough just north of the waters is keeping winds at
cautionary levels this afternoon. Winds should diminish through
the weekend as the surface trough weakens and the subtropical
ridge builds back over the northern Gulf. Winds and seas should
remain low through the middle of next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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River gauges are expected to remain below flood
stage for the next several days.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Tallahassee   93  73  92  71  91 / 40  20  20  10  30
Panama City   89  77  89  75  86 / 30  20  20  10  20
Dothan        94  72  94  72  93 / 10  10  10  10  20
Albany        93  71  93  69  92 / 20  10   0   0  20
Valdosta      93  70  92  67  91 / 40  30  10  10  20
Cross City    89  71  92  69  92 / 80  40  20  10  30
Apalachicola  87  76  87  75  85 / 40  20  20  10  20
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Camp
LONG TERM...Camp
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...DVD/Camp
FIRE WEATHER...DVD/Camp
HYDROLOGY...