Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 140108
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
908 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2014
...ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The forecast still looks like it is mostly on track with no
changes to the current watches or previous thinking below. One
addition is that we are more concerned for isolated tornadoes
across the Florida Panhandle given a mesoscale warm frontal
boundary stretching across the area (east wind at ECP). We have
already seen a few brief tornadoes (confirmed with dual-pol data),
but so far they have been in forested areas with no damage to
A strong frontal system will affect the area over the next 24 hours,
bringing with it a threat for severe storms and heavy rainfall. In
terms of severe weather, the main threat will come late tonight
through early Tuesday afternoon in the form of the squall line that
is currently back across the MS/LA area. Straight line winds will be
the main threat, but we cannot rule out a small chance of an
isolated tornado either with rather high low-level shear values in
place. SPC has the entire area outlooked in a slight risk for severe
storms. The flash flood threat will come from the potential for
training convection from south to north out ahead of the main squall
line. WPC has roughly the same area as the flash flood watch
outlooked for a moderate risk of excessive rainfall.
[Through 00Z Wednesday] Rain showers with isolated thunder are
already over the westernmost terminals. Overnight TS will become
more widespread as a cold front approaches from the west. MVFR
conditions are expected overnight and during the morning hours. IFR
conditions will likely be brief. A stronger line of TS will likely
develop in the morning and move through the area from west to east.
Some storms could be severe. Gusty winds are the primary threat with
.Prev Discussion [422 PM EDT]...
.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
There may be some lingering convection into early Tuesday night
across the eastern portions of the area just ahead of the front.
Otherwise, a drier and cooler airmass will be moving into the area
in the wake of the front.
.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
Dry weather is expected through the period with high pressure in
the wake of the strong cold front on Tuesday. Temperatures will
be within a few degrees of average for this time of year.
Winds and seas will continue to increase in response to a sharp
pressure difference between the approaching low pressure from the
west and high pressure over the western Atlantic. Winds and seas
should fall below advisory levels Tuesday evening as the pressure
pattern becomes weak behind the departing low.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday with
drying conditions for Wednesday. Red flag conditions are not
expected at least through the remainder of the week.
Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized amounts in excess
of 6 inches in a short period of time are possible across the flash
flood watch area through Tuesday afternoon. Elsewhere, around 1 to
2 inches of rain is expected. River levels are starting out
fairly low, so even though some decent rises are expected across
the western basins, main stem river flooding is not expected at
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 73 82 58 80 50 / 70 100 50 0 0
Panama City 75 81 60 79 57 / 100 100 10 0 0
Dothan 70 80 53 78 51 / 100 100 10 0 0
Albany 72 80 57 78 52 / 60 100 40 10 0
Valdosta 71 82 61 79 51 / 30 100 70 10 10
Cross City 71 84 68 81 52 / 30 80 70 10 10
Apalachicola 76 82 62 79 57 / 90 100 30 0 0
FL...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for Calhoun-Central
Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Gadsden-
Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Walton-
High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for Coastal Bay-
Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.
GA...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for Clay-Decatur-
AL...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for Coffee-Dale-
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for Apalachee Bay-
Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.