Area Forecast Discussion
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620 FXUS62 KTAE 202024 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 324 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2015 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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A shortwave moving through the northeast Gulf overnight generated an extensive upper-level cloud deck over the entire state of Florida, with scattered showers across south Florida along a resultant surface trough. A much more subtle shortwave has been able to generate another area of low pressure over the far western panhandle of Florida. Two weak surface troughs are noted extending east and south from this area of low pressure, and will be the focus for light to moderate rain overnight. As the aforementioned area of surface low pressure moves east overnight, some weak isentropic ascent over the east-west oriented trough could result in a few very light showers across the Tri-State region. The higher probability for rain will be along the north-south oriented trough where greater convergence exists due simply to the motion of the system. This could bring some slightly heavier and more widespread shower activity to areas south of interstate 10 in north Florida. QPF amounts should remain below a quarter of an inch in this region, and possibly only a trace elsewhere. Due to the extensive cloud cover and rain chances forecast, expect lows to barely dip into the 40s area-wide, with middle 50s expected along the immediate panhandle coast. .Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]... Zonal flow will be in place at the start of the period. An inverted surface trough will be in place just south of the forecast area and could touch off some isolated showers Wednesday morning. The balance of the day will be dry and mild with highs within a couple of degrees either side of 70. This pattern will hold Wednesday night with mild rain-free conditions and lows 8-10 degrees above normal. By Thursday, cyclogenesis will occur off the South Texas coast in response to an upper trough deepening over the Southern Plains. As this low tracks across the northern Gulf of Mexico, frontogenetic forcing will increase across the forecast area. Slight chance PoPs in the afternoon for our western zones will transition to likely for much of the forecast area by dawn Friday. .Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]... Most models bring the gulf low northeast across the forecast area Friday afternoon and evening. PoPs will be categorical. We could easily see 2-3 inches of rain from this system. However, thunder will be restricted to our southeastern zones closer to the low level instability. As the low moves off the Carolina Coast, drier and cooler air will arrive in its wake for the weekend. A clipper system will then dive southeast across the Carolinas on Monday, possibly bringing some isolated showers to the northeast gulf region.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Wednesday] A scattered VFR CU field will gradually fill in and lower from west to east through the remainder of the afternoon and overnight. All terminals are expected to fall under high-end MVFR ceiling restrictions overnight, with light rain possible. Ceilings will begin to clear from west to east around daybreak tomorrow, with all sites returning to VFR sometime tomorrow afternoon.
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&& .Marine...
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Winds will be light but shifting through the night as a trough moves east across the waters. East to northeast winds will increase to cautionary levels Thursday night. Expect more shifting winds on Friday as low pressure moves northeast across the marine area. As the low pulls northeast of the area, northwest winds in its wake will increase to advisory levels behind it for Friday night and Saturday.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Moisture levels will slowly increase throughout the week as a storm system approaches the region on Thursday night into Friday. After widespread rain across the region on Friday, drier air will begin to arrive late Saturday. With cooler temperatures expected late in the weekend, red flag conditions are not expected.
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&& .Hydrology...
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All area rivers are below flood stage and either steady or falling. A low pressure system could bring widespread 2-3 inch rainfall totals from Thursday night into Saturday morning. This would cause rises on area rivers.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 48 71 50 68 55 / 40 10 0 10 60 Panama City 53 67 52 64 55 / 50 10 0 20 70 Dothan 48 67 46 62 50 / 20 0 0 20 70 Albany 46 68 45 62 50 / 10 10 0 10 60 Valdosta 47 69 47 67 54 / 10 10 0 10 50 Cross City 49 72 50 72 56 / 30 10 0 10 40 Apalachicola 53 69 54 67 58 / 60 10 0 20 60
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN SHORT TERM...WOOL LONG TERM...WOOL AVIATION...HARRIGAN MARINE...WOOL FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...WOOL

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