Area Forecast Discussion
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351 FXUS62 KTAE 220842 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 342 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2015 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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Zonal flow aloft will dominate the Southeast today, with a broad northern stream trough in the northeastern quadrant of the country, and an upper low cutting off over the Central Great Basin and west coast. At the surface, a regional subjective analysis depicts a cold front draped southwest to northeast from the southern Mississippi Valley into northern Alabama. Extending east-northeast from northern Alabama is a quasi-stationary boundary draped up the lee side of the Appalachians. The large area of light to moderate rain was being forced out ahead of the surface front, associated with a weak southern stream anomaly. Another area of light rain along near the Tri-State intersection is being forced in the near surface 290-295K window. As warming begins across the Southeast today, the slope of the isentropes will dampen and the aforementioned area of rain should come to an end by mid-afternoon. Though, not before spreading an area of light rain primarily along and west of the Apalachicola and Chattahoochee rivers. The larger area of precip across the Southeast this morning will lift northeast with the upper-level shortwave and the focus for the majority of rainfall across the Southeast will shift back to the surface front. The front is expected to just barely reach our southeast Alabama and extreme western Georgia counties late this afternoon as surface high pressure builds south. This will yield the best chance for rain later this afternoon along and northwest of a line from Ben Hill county to Walton county. Total rain accumulations through today shouldn`t top a half an inch across southeast Alabama, and a quarter of an inch elsewhere. With the sharp precip gradient, a similar temperature gradient is also expected. Low 70s should be anticipated in aforementioned areas impacted by rain, while middle to even upper 70s (across the Suwannee Valley) should be expected elsewhere. .Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]... The cold front mentioned above will push through the forecast area tonight into Monday. The best chance of rain will be across the northwest half of the area as the front will be weakening as it moves through. Model disagreements become apparent by Tuesday as the NAM and ECMWF spread additional light rain into the area with a weak upper level shortwave while the GFS is drier. The official forecast went with a compromise and shows 30-50% PoPs. With an increase in cloud cover expected on Tuesday, high temperatures will be held down somewhat with lower 50s expected across the north and mid 50s to near 60 across the southeast big bend. .Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]... A more significant system is possible on Wednesday with both the GFS and ECMWF indicating a fairly vigorous upper level shortwave with a surface low moving along the coast. With the 00z models in general agreement on the timing, PoPs were bumped up to 70% for Wednesday. This looks like a decent rainfall producer with a couple of inches possible across the area. With the surface low expected to track south of the area, the airmass currently looks too stable for thunderstorms across our area. After the Wednesday system, another system is possible for next weekend. Overall, high temperatures are expected to be a bit below average with lows near average.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12z Monday] MVFR to IFR ceilings should be expected in and around areas of rainfall through mid-morning. Thereafter, VFR ceilings should be expected at all terminals but DHN and ABY where MVFR will prevail with light to moderate rain.
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&& .Marine...
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Southerly winds will be subsiding today. However by late tonight into Monday, a cold front will move through the coastal waters, bringing an increase in northerly winds possibly to cautionary levels mainly west of Apalachicola. Winds are then expected to be light for Tuesday before increasing again on Wednesday to near advisory levels as an area of low pressure moves along the coast.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next several days.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Several rounds of rainfall are possible this week with the best chance for an areawide moderate to possibly heavy rainfall event expected on Wednesday. Total rainfall is generally expected to be in the 2-3 inch range with isolated higher totals possible. This will cause rises on area rivers and may bring a few of our sites back up to action stage. At this time, flooding is not expected, although if widespread rainfall amounts were to increase above 3 inches, then the Kinchafoonee Creek as well as the Ochlockonee and Aucilla Rivers could come close to minor flood stage.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 71 55 69 49 57 / 20 20 20 40 50 Panama City 65 57 63 48 54 / 70 20 20 40 50 Dothan 71 49 59 41 51 / 80 50 20 40 50 Albany 73 51 61 40 51 / 60 50 20 30 40 Valdosta 76 55 68 45 53 / 20 20 20 40 50 Cross City 76 54 72 50 60 / 20 10 20 30 50 Apalachicola 66 58 68 51 57 / 20 10 20 40 50
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...RIP CURRENT RISK through this evening for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM...DVD AVIATION...HARRIGAN MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...DVD

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