Area Forecast Discussion
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284 FXUS62 KTAE 162110 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 410 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Cold front will exit the southeastern Big Bend by late this afternoon with a cooler air mass filtering in overnight. Cold air advection will not be all that strong behind this front, as the bulk of the cooler air is shunted north of the area in a zonal upper pattern. Overnight lows will range from the mid 30s over the western zones, to the lower 40s for the southeast half of the CWA. .Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]... For Wednesday and Thursday, the Southeast will see a well- established surface high pressure ridge and zonal flow aloft. This should lead two a brief stretch of dry weather, light winds, plenty of sunshine, and near normal temperatures. .Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]... The global models are beginning to converge on a common solution for Friday and Saturday - a deamplifying ejecting wave aloft will contribute to the development of a weak surface low along the Gulf coast. There will likely be an area of rain with embedded storms as the wave and associated surface low move quickly ENE. With most global model guidance currently showing almost no height falls aloft with the deamplifying wave passing north of our area, we could see the coverage of rain decrease to the east. Given this, PoPs were kept in the "chance" range. There is also agreement on secondary cyclogenesis over the Gulf as another wave ejects east around Tuesday - so rain chances were included Monday-Tuesday as well at the end of the forecast period.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Wednesday] Cold front has pushed through all area terminal except KVLD. Expect some showers and MVFR CIGS through about 20Z at KVLD. Thereafter (and elsewhere), VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the forecast period. Gusty westerly winds (up to around 18kt) can be expected this afternoon before dropping off early this evening.
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&& .Marine...
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Winds around 15 knots will be possible tonight, before the winds diminish through Thursday Night. On Friday, the winds will increase again with the approach of a low-pressure system with SCEC level winds likely by later Friday Night or Saturday.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next several days.
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&& .Hydrology...
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No flooding issues are expected over the next several days.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 40 65 38 68 43 / 0 0 0 0 10 Panama City 45 61 46 65 50 / 0 0 0 0 10 Dothan 38 61 39 64 45 / 0 0 0 10 10 Albany 38 63 36 65 42 / 0 0 0 0 10 Valdosta 39 63 38 65 42 / 10 0 0 0 10 Cross City 43 66 38 68 42 / 10 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 45 62 46 65 50 / 0 0 0 0 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...CAMP SHORT TERM...LAMERS LONG TERM...LAMERS AVIATION...CAMP MARINE...LAMERS FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...DVD/LAMERS

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