Area Forecast Discussion
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743 FXUS62 KTAE 160640 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 240 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]... With plenty of deep, tropical moisture already in place across the region (with widespread PWATs between 2" and 2.2") sct to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue to develop and move E-NE over the CWA with the heaviest rainfall expected near the coast over the FL Panhandle and across much of the FL Big Bend. This development will be caused by a steepening upper level trof to our NW which will finally push the stationary Sfc frontal boundary off to our SE as a cold front later tonight and Wednesday, finally putting an end to our stagnant pattern of unseasonably wet and humid conditions. Before that takes place, however, average rainfall amounts today are expected to range from 0.25" to 0.50" over the northern 1/4 of the CWA, to between 0.50" and 1" across the remainder of our AL, GA, and NW FL Panhandle zones, with fairly widespread 1" to 2" totals expected elsewhere. In fact, some portions of the southeastern Big Bend as well as coastal areas of Franklin and Gulf counties could see isolated storm totals of 2" to 4" or even 3" to 5", which could cause some minor flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas. .Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]... The upper level pattern will continue to amplify with the trough digging down the eastern seaboard. This will bring much drier air to the region as the deep layer moisture gets shunted southward. At the surface, the cold front will have pushed well to the south of our area by Thursday. PoPs will be tapered lower end chance northwest zones to good chance for the southeast Big Bend tonight. Then will keep slight to chance PoPs mainly over the southeast Big Bend for Wednesday with no mention of PoPs on Thursday. Despite the passage of a cold front, max temps will near to just above seasonal levels each day. Min temps will drop into the mid to upper 60s most inland areas Wednesday night. .Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]... Drier air in the wake of the upper level trough will dominate the first half of the period. Highs are expected to range from the mid 80s to near 90 with lows in the mid to upper 60s. Late in the period, another front may move in from the northwest with a slight increase in PoPs, but nothing significant is currently expected. && .Aviation... [Through 12Z Wednesday] Through the remainder of the overnight hours, VFR conditions are expected to hold at TLH, DHN, and ECP, with MVFR to possible IFR Cigs at ABY and VLD. However, ECP will be very near the showers and storms that are already plentiful over the northern Gulf of Mexico, and they may need amending before 12Z today. Thereafter, sct to nmrs showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop at all of the terminals from south to north today, with heavy rainfall likely reducing Vis and Cigs to MVFR and even IFR levels at ECP, TLH, and VLD, with MVFR reductions expected at DHN and ABY. This rainfall is expected to linger well into the evening hours at the southern and eastern terminals, with all areas expected to be free from convection by 06Z Wed. as the cold front pushes through. && .Marine... Slightly elevated seas today will subside into the 1 to 2 foot range tonight. Winds and seas will remain low through the remainder of the work week. Friday night into the weekend, a strong ridge of high pressure will build northeast of the area creating a pattern favorable for an increase in easterly winds and seas. && .Fire Weather... After one more very wet day across the region today, much drier air will push into the area from northwest to southeast on Wednesday and Thursday. However, this air mass will still not be dry enough to cause any fire weather concerns. && .Hydrology... Some locally heavy rain is possible tonight into Tuesday, especially near the coast with a stalled front in the area that will begin to move on Tuesday. General amounts of 1-3" are expected with isolated higher amounts expected. While this may cause some rises on our area rivers and streams, it is unlikely to bring any of them to flood stage, especially with the highest rainfall amounts expected closer to the coast. There is a possibility of some localized flash flooding through Tuesday if the heavier amounts fall over an urban area such as Panama City, but confidence is not quite high enough in this happening to put up a watch at this time. However, we will be monitoring trends closely for that possibility. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 88 70 92 68 91 / 70 50 20 10 0 Panama City 87 74 91 73 91 / 70 40 10 10 0 Dothan 90 68 91 65 90 / 50 30 10 0 0 Albany 89 70 92 65 90 / 50 30 10 10 0 Valdosta 87 69 91 65 90 / 70 50 20 10 0 Cross City 85 70 89 68 91 / 80 60 40 10 0 Apalachicola 85 74 89 72 90 / 70 50 20 10 0 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...GOULD SHORT TERM...BARRY LONG TERM...DVD AVIATION...GOULD MARINE...BARRY FIRE WEATHER...GOULD HYDROLOGY...DVD is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.