Area Forecast Discussion
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107 FXUS62 KTAE 201324 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 930 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014 .Update...
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This morning`s KTAE sounding as expected is very moist with deep westerly flow. Convection associated with the northern fringe of MCS over the Gulf extends inland across the Florida panhandle. Raised PoPs through the morning for western 2/3rds of CWA based on radar coverage. This activity is spreading eastward. PoPs this afternoon have also been raised to likely across the board. .Aviation... [Through 12z Monday] IFR cigs with ocnl low visibilities have developed at TLH/DHN/ABY and expect these conditions to remain in place up til around sunrise when these restrictions should end quickly. Convection should near the western terminals just after sunrise and spread eastward. Focused thunderstorm TEMPO groups to capture expected most likely thunderstorm times at the terminals. IFR conditions are possible with the stronger storms. Should see things quiet down after 00z when thunderstorms diminish. .Previous discussion [413 am]... .Near Term [Through Today]... Another active day is expected across the region today. Area radars as of 0730z are showing convection developing over the waters south of the western Florida Panhandle as well as over interior southern Alabama. With the Eastern CONUS trough well established and shown in some models to actually amplify by the end of today, anticipate plenty of convective activity across the region by evening. With storms developing now to the west of the region, expect an early start across the western areas and then spreading eastward into the afternoon. Once again today, too much convection in western areas this morning could limit downstream development this afternoon in eastern areas. Convective activity will limit high temperatures to the mid and upper 80s again today.
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&& .Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]... Despite the weakening and gradual dissipation of the Sfc low pressure system in our region which will occur over the next 24 hours, the upper level low will essentially remain well entrenched. Therefore, the fairly wet and unsettled conditions similar to this weekend are expected to continue well into the upcoming work week. While no strong to severe thunderstorms are expected due to extensive cloud cover and lack of adequate destabilization, some additional heavy rainfall will be possible over the next few days. However, flooding is not expected to be much of a concern, as the area most likely to receive the larger rainfall amounts should gradually shift eastward with time as well. Once again, high temperatures will vary quite a bit from location to location and be highly dependent on breaks in the cloudiness to reach or exceed the 90 degree mark. Overnight lows should remain generally in the lower 70s at most locations, except for mid to a few upper 70s near the immediate coast. .Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Saturday]... The first two days of the long term will be near or above climatology in terms of rain chances while temperatures are expected to be below climatology. The increased chances for rain will be due to general long wave troughing over the Eastern CONUS and an upper low that is forecast to cut off from the mean 250mb flow and move southwest. As this low rotates around a fairly anomalous ridge over the Western US, rain chances will remain high through Wednesday. After Wednesday afternoon, models diverge slightly but both the Euro/GFS suggest a return to near normal climatological rain chances. For the end of the long term took an equal blend of HPC, Euro, and GFS guidance. && .Marine... A low pressure system now in the vicinity of our western coastal waters will keep winds and seas slightly elevated for one more day today, before this surface low dissipates tonight and Monday. This will result in the return of a weaker pressure pattern more typical for summertime, which should result in generally light winds and low seas for the remainder of the period. && .Fire Weather... Moist conditions for the next several days will prevent red flag criteria from being met. && .Hydrology... While additional rainfall concerns for any potential minor flooding or rises along some of our area rivers and streams in the Florida Panhandle (such as Mossy Head which could potentially reach minor flood stage today with around 2.5" of additional rainfall) will gradually decrease as the higher amounts begin to lessen and shift eastward next week, some locations in the Florida Panhandle will require some close monitoring today in case another batch of heavy rainfall strikes the region. Otherwise, only minor flooding of poor drainage and low lying areas will be possible once again today. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 87 74 88 73 91 / 60 50 60 30 50 Panama City 87 77 88 76 89 / 70 40 40 20 40 Dothan 88 73 90 73 92 / 70 30 40 20 50 Albany 89 73 89 73 92 / 70 40 60 20 50 Valdosta 88 73 88 71 92 / 70 50 70 30 60 Cross City 89 73 88 71 92 / 60 40 70 40 60 Apalachicola 87 78 87 76 88 / 60 50 50 30 50 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay- Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ UPDATE...BARRY NEAR TERM...GODSEY SHORT TERM...GOULD LONG TERM...BLOCK AVIATION...GODSEY MARINE...GOULD FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY HYDROLOGY...GOULD

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