Area Forecast Discussion
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998 FXUS62 KTAE 240101 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 901 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Isolated convection has almost diminished for the evening. After another sweltering day with some daily record high temperatures observed, it will be another muggy night with overnight lows generally in the mid to upper 70s. One more very hot day is expected on Sunday before a slight cooling trend to start the work week.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Monday] VFR conditions are forecast through the period. Cloud cover early this evening will quickly dissipate. There is a chance for some light fog closer to sunrise, but confidence was not high enough to include in any TAFs. Showers and thunderstorms may be on the increase from recent days, but timing should be later in the afternoon with a progression from the east to the west. No VCTS was included at DHN for this reason, as it may be impacted mainly after 00Z. However, VCTS was included at all other terminals in the afternoon hours.
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&& .Prev Discussion [158 PM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday night]... For much of Sunday, the powerful and hot upper ridge will maintain control over the region, with temperatures forecast to reach triple digits once again for many locations. However, by mid to late afternoon, a trough digging down the eastern seaboard will push a backdoor cold front into south central Georgia. Along with the front, expect to see a bit more cloud cover and increased rain chances, especially northwest of a line from Cross City to Albany. This should keep temperatures sub-100 in these areas. However, southwest of the front, the extreme heat will continue. Heat indices are once again forecast to reach at least 108 during the afternoon, so have issued a Heat Advisory for these areas. By Monday, northeasterly flow will increase as high pressure noses down the eastern seaboard. Expect to see a few storms early in the day over the southwestern portion of the forecast area. However, PoPs will be minimal elsewhere as a much drier low-level airmass moves in. The airmass will be `cooler` as well, with high temperatures only expected to reach the lower to mid 90s Monday afternoon. .Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]... Northeasterly flow will continue through Wednesday, keeping a dry airmass in place across the region. This will keep rain chances well below climatology and temperatures near or just above normal. Temperatures will begin to warm again by late in the week as the ridge rebuilds aloft. Moisture is not expected to increase significantly until at least next weekend, so rain chances will remain relatively low. .Marine... Westerly to northwesterly winds will continue over the coastal waters through Sunday before shifting to the northeast Sunday night into Monday as a backdoor front moves across the region. Winds may approach Small Craft Advisory criteria late on Monday before diminishing during the day on Tuesday. Winds and seas will decrease further by the middle of the week. .Fire Weather... Relative humidity levels will remain above critical thresholds for the next several days, precluding any hazardous fire weather conditions. .Hydrology... There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms this weekend, however no impacts are expected on river levels.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 76 100 77 94 72 / 10 30 30 20 10 Panama City 80 97 79 92 74 / 20 20 30 30 10 Dothan 75 98 75 92 70 / 10 40 30 20 0 Albany 76 97 74 91 70 / 10 50 30 10 0 Valdosta 73 99 74 92 69 / 10 50 30 10 10 Cross City 75 99 75 93 71 / 20 50 30 20 10 Apalachicola 79 96 79 92 75 / 20 20 30 30 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...Heat Advisory from Noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Sunday for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie- Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon- Liberty-Madison-South Walton-Washington. GA...Heat Advisory from Noon to 8 PM EDT Sunday for Brooks-Decatur- Early-Grady-Lowndes-Miller-Seminole-Thomas. AL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for Coffee-Dale- Geneva-Henry-Houston. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...DVD SHORT TERM...CAMP LONG TERM...CAMP AVIATION...LAMERS MARINE...CAMP FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT

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