Area Forecast Discussion
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831 FXUS62 KTAE 122016 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 316 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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With the surface high pressure to our west centered over Arkansas and Mississippi, we will have another night of cool and dry conditions. Clear skies and light winds will allow low temperatures reach the lower 30s. Widespread frost is expected again tonight. .Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]... A couple of distinct +PV anomalies make up a rather amplified, but somewhat zonally oriented eastern U.S. trough. The weaker of the anomalies over the Southern Plains this afternoon will become elongated and rather diffuse over the next couple of days as it falls into a strong zonal flow regime at the base of the parent trough. This will be inconsequential as the Southeast is moisture starved, with rain and probably even clouds, out of the question. At the surface, high pressure will prevail and continue to yield cool and dry northwesterly flow, with calm winds at night. Overnight lows will be in the lower to middle 30s both Saturday and Sunday night, with frost expected each night as well. Afternoon highs will moderate through the weekend and peak in the middle to upper 60s by Sunday. .Long Term [Monday Through Friday]... A brief period of high amplitude upper level ridging will spread over the Southeast late Sunday night through Monday before another +PV anomaly moving through the Middle Mississippi Valley returns the Southeast to a more zonal pattern under a resultant low- amplitude trough. With the main forcing from this anomaly forecast to remain well north of the region, we`ll likely not see any significant, or impactful precipitation. However, there may be just enough upper-level diffluence to support some light showers across the area on Tuesday. Thereafter, essentially zonal flow will continue aloft, with weak high pressure at the surface. Outside of Tuesday, no rain is expected, with afternoon highs and overnight lows near seasonal values.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Saturday] VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals with northerly winds around 5 knots.
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&& .Marine...
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Slightly elevated winds (but below headline levels) will continue through Saturday, until high pressure weakens across the northeast Gulf. Sunday through next week will feature light winds and low seas. With only a small chance for light rain on Tuesday.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Fair and dry weather will continue through this weekend, with cool mornings and mild afternoons. RH values were near or a little below locally critical values this Friday afternoon, and this is likely again on Saturday. However, other factors like ERC values and winds are not supportive of Red Flag criteria. Due to light winds and rather meager mixing heights, daytime dispersion values will be unusually low.
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&& .Hydrology...
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As mentioned above, there will be a slight chance for rain on Tuesday, though average amounts should remain below a quarter of an inch. Thus, area rivers and streams should remain in a rather steady state.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 31 65 33 67 37 / 0 0 0 0 0 Panama City 41 65 42 65 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dothan 36 62 36 64 38 / 0 0 0 0 10 Albany 31 63 34 66 36 / 0 0 0 0 10 Valdosta 32 65 33 67 37 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cross City 31 67 32 68 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 38 64 40 64 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...WESTON SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN LONG TERM...HARRIGAN AVIATION...WESTON MARINE...HARRIGAN FIRE WEATHER...WESTON HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN

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