Area Forecast Discussion
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893 FXUS62 KTAE 170658 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 258 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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With the upper level trof becoming well established over the region today, pushing the stalled out Sfc boundary through the area as a cold front, a gradual drying trend will begin from north to south across the CWA. This will result in dewpoints dropping into the mid to upper 60s to the north, and the upper 60s to lower 70s to the south this afternoon, with much drier air working into the entire region on Thursday. Rain chances will also be greatly reduced, with no additional showers or storms expected across the NW 2/3 of the CWA, and just 20-30% PoPs further to the SE. With plenty of sunshine over most of the region by this afternoon, high temps should range from 88 to 92 degrees. .Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]... The upper level trough with axis along or near the eastern seaboard will continue to deepen through the period with much drier air overspreading the region through Thursday. Another weak frontal boundary will push down from the north on Friday as well as an increase in deep layer moisture as an upper low begins to close off east of the NE FL/SE GA coast. Will reintroduce rain chances across the area on Friday with the best chance (30-40%) across the coastal waters and SE Big Bend. Despite the passage of the cold front earlier this week, max temps will continue at or just above seasonal levels. Lows both nights will be in the mid to upper 60s. .Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]... By Friday night, the mid level pattern begins to stagnate as models show an upper low cutting off just south of the southeast U.S coast as a weak ridge builds across the Mid Atlantic States. This type of pattern will keep partly to mostly skies in place through the weekend with moderate easterly flow. Low end rain chances can be expected, especially across the eastern portions of the region. Late Sunday and into Monday the pattern across the CONUS becomes highly amplified with a deepening trough across the Eastern US and a large ridge across the western states. As this pattern amplifies, the models diverge in whether a cold front will make its way into the Gulf Coast States and possibly beyond. The 16/12z Euro stalls the boundary across our region as the main mid and upper level support lifts out into New England whereas the 16/00z and 16/12z GFS had some degree of frontal passage late in the period. Climatology in late September would argue against a front clearing the forecast area, so will lean closer on a solution supported by the latest Euro for late in the period.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 06Z Thursday] [Through 12Z Thursday] The canopy of mid-upper level cloudiness is expected to keep TLH and ECP at VFR levels overnight, but decreasing clouds could allow DHN and ABY to drop to MVFR level Vis, with IFR-LIFR conditions possible at VLD towards morning. Once these restrictions are lifted by 14Z, VFR conditions with light winds are expected at all the terminals through the remainder of the period.
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&& .Marine...
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Relatively light winds and low seas are expected across the marine area through the remainder of the week. Winds will shift to easterly and increase to moderate levels on Saturday as high pressure builds down the Atlantic seaboard.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Despite the gradual influx of significantly drier air into the region, which will peak on Thursday afternoon, relative humidities and other fire weather parameters are not expected to approach Red Flag levels through the period.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Slow moving storms will continue to deliver locally heavy rainfall across the region through today. Localized rainfall amounts of 3 to 4 inches could cause minor flooding of low lying areas. This rainfall will cause some rises of the smaller creeks and streams, though all rivers should remain well below flood stage.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 91 69 92 68 89 / 20 10 10 10 20 Panama City 89 71 90 71 86 / 10 10 10 10 20 Dothan 91 66 89 65 89 / 10 10 0 10 20 Albany 91 66 89 66 88 / 10 10 10 10 20 Valdosta 90 67 92 66 88 / 10 10 10 10 20 Cross City 88 70 92 69 88 / 30 10 10 10 30 Apalachicola 88 74 89 73 85 / 20 10 10 10 20
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...GOULD SHORT TERM...BARRY LONG TERM...GODSEY AVIATION...GOULD MARINE...BARRY FIRE WEATHER...GOULD HYDROLOGY...WESTON

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