Area Forecast Discussion
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715
FXUS62 KTAE 230254
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
954 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Lead shortwave is helping to enhance isentropic lift across the
region this evening, with a large area of light to moderate rain
marching north across the forecast area. Developing warm front
remain well south over the central Gulf. However, this boundary
will begin to lift north overnight, reaching the northern Gulf
Coast after sunrise. North of the front, the widespread rain will
continue, with occasional embedded thunderstorms. No major changes
need for the forecast with categorical PoPs largely in place
already. Rain may occasionally be heavy, but rather dry antecedent
conditions should limit overall flood threat.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Monday] Cigs will continue to fall through the
overnight hours as a large area of rain lifts north across the
region. Expect terminals to be close to or below IFR conditions
for most of the night. Cigs likely to lift during the morning,
from south to north, as a warm front lifts north. Thunderstorms
may then impact the terminals from west to east during the
afternoon and evening.

&&

.Prev Discussion [416 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

By dawn on Sunday, the aforementioned area of heavy rain and
isolated thunderstorms will be steadily moving north through the
region. At the same time, the aforementioned northern stream
anomaly will be quickly approaching. The core of this system will
likely pass just northwest of us, through central MS & AL, into
TN. However, due to the strength and size of this system 40-50kts
of deep layer shear will still be able to reach the Tri- State
region, coincident with with a recovering boundary layer yielding
around 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE and a strong LLJ. While there may be
some discrete convection ahead of the main squall line, the
greatest threat for more widespread severe coverage will occur
along along the expected squall line forecast to enter our
Panhandle and Alabama counties around mid afternoon. Both damaging
thunderstorm winds and tornadoes should be expected with any
discrete development and along the squall. The severe threat will
gradually diminish through the late afternoon and evening as the
squall progresses east; with a much lower threat for severe
weather east of a line from Tallahassee to Albany as both wind
shear and instability wane.

A weak front will bisect the region through the day on Monday as
deep layer southerly flow impedes the forward progress of the
system. Showers and isolated thunderstorms should be expected
Sunday night through Monday, especially along and east of a line
from Panama City through Albany. However, these storms are not
expected to become severe.


.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

The amplifying northern stream longwave trough will finally push
the surface front and any moisture out of the region by Wednesday
evening. In its wake, dry conditions with highs in the lower to
middle 60s and lows in the middle to upper 30s are anticipated
through the remainder of the week.


.Marine...

A very strong low pressure system will yield solid advisory
conditions through Sunday night. On Sunday, frequent gusts to Gale
force are expected. Thus have kept the Gale warning in place.
Strong to severe storms will also be possible across the northeast
Gulf late tonight, but more likely on Sunday. While advisory
conditions will come to an end on Monday, expect cautionary
conditions to continue until another front increases winds again
Tuesday into Wednesday.


.Fire Weather...

Wet weather will minimize any fire weather risk through Sunday. By
Monday, a drier airmass will move into the region but humidity
values are forecast to remain above critical levels.


.Hydrology...

Periods of heavy rain will move through the region tonight through
Sunday night, resulting in total rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches with
local amounts up to 4 inches possible. This will cause rises on
smaller creeks and rivers next week. Since rivers are all very low
at this time, the only river that we are expecting to get to minor
flood stage is the Kinchafoonee River at Dawson, possibly by mid
week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   63  76  64  79  49 / 100 100  50  40  20
Panama City   63  74  64  75  51 / 100 100  50  30  10
Dothan        59  74  59  73  44 / 100 100  40  20  10
Albany        60  74  61  75  46 / 100 100  50  30  10
Valdosta      60  77  67  78  50 / 100  80  70  50  20
Cross City    63  78  67  78  53 / 100  60  60  50  20
Apalachicola  66  74  66  76  53 / 100 100  50  50  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to Midnight CST Sunday Night
     for Coastal Bay-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for Apalachee
     Bay-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL
     out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL
     out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL
     from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from
     20 to 60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...HOLLINGSWORTH







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