Area Forecast Discussion
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154 FXUS62 KTAE 191955 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 255 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2015 .Near Term [Through Tonight]... The surface high pressure situated along the Florida Panhandle will keep skies clear and winds light and variable through this evening, allowing highs to rise to the mid to upper 60s. As high pressure shifts eastward tonight, we will begin to see some lower level isentropic ascent to our southwest, increasing cloud coverage along the Florida Panhandle and out over the Gulf waters. Cloud coverage building in our southwestern zones will mean lows in that area won`t cool quite as much, staying in the low 40s. In the Big Bend area, where surface high pressure will reign, lows will be in the mid 30s. Patchy frost will be possible in this area in the late night and early morning hours. .Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]... This period will be fairly uneventful with zonal flow in place across the region and surface high pressure north of the region keeping rain chances negligible. Temps will be mild. .Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]... Northern and southern stream energy will phase over the Southern Plains and then slide east across the Gulf Coast states. Cyclogenesis will occur over the northwest Gulf of Mexico on Thursday. There remain differences among the various models as to how quickly, and at what latitude, this low will traverse the northern Gulf of Mexico. Most scenarios make rain likely for Thursday night and Friday with the system moving east of the area on Saturday. Temperatures will be cooler than normal through most of this period. && .Aviation... [Through 18Z Tuesday] High pressure along the Gulf coast will produce generally light and variable winds with KTLH, KABY, and KVLD going calm overnight. Some of the guidance is indicating the possibility for MVFR ceilings to move onshore at KECP around 12Z as the high pressure shifts eastward. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. && .Marine... Winds and seas will be low through Wednesday night. Low pressure will then track across the northern Gulf of Mexico increasing east to northeast winds to cautionary levels on Thursday. Marginal small craft advisory conditions are possible Thursday night into Friday, especially across the western legs. && .Fire Weather... Relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical values for the next several days. With high pressure in place for Tuesday and Wednesday, light transport winds will produce low dispersion indices each afternoon. A storm system will begin to approach the region on Thursday with the next chance of rainfall coming on Friday. && .Hydrology... All area rivers are below flood stage and staying steady or falling. Our next chance for rainfall will be Thursday. QPF values are expected to be an inch or less at this time, which will not cause flooding. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 35 71 49 69 47 / 0 0 10 10 10 Panama City 45 67 53 65 48 / 0 10 10 10 10 Dothan 41 68 48 65 43 / 0 0 10 10 10 Albany 38 68 46 66 42 / 0 0 10 10 10 Valdosta 37 69 48 68 45 / 0 0 10 10 0 Cross City 35 72 48 71 48 / 0 0 10 10 10 Apalachicola 44 68 54 68 51 / 0 0 10 10 10 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...MOORE/MERRIFIELD SHORT TERM...WOOL LONG TERM...WOOL AVIATION...MOORE/MERRIFIELD MARINE...WOOL FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY HYDROLOGY...MOORE/MERRIFIELD

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