Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
863 FXUS62 KTAE 210126 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 826 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2015 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
-- Changed Discussion --
A light freeze is still on track for most areas east of the river. Clouds and light onshore flow will help to keep overnight minimum temps in the mid to upper 30s across the inland portions of the Florida panhandle and southwest Alabama. .Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]... A weakening cold front will approach the area during the latter half of the weekend, bringing an increasing chance of showers on Sunday, mainly to the northwestern half of the area. Instability may be just high enough to support a slight chance of a thunderstorm across the northwest half, but with weak dynamics, severe weather is not expected. A temporary but significant warm- up is likely ahead of the front, with highs in the mid 60s to near 70 on Saturday and the mid 70s on Sunday. .Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]... The long term period will begin with a decaying frontal system limping into our forecast area as the parent low pushes off the northeast CONUS. As this upper low departs, our part of the county will be left in nearly zonal flow aloft. The global guidance is in good agreement through at least Wednesday with cloudy skies, near- to-below normal temperatures, and chances for rain. The rain chances will be forced by several small shortwaves as they move east in the relatively quick 500mb flow. The GFS and Euro begin to diverge Wednesday night as the GFS forecasts a stronger shortwave to move along the 500mb flow and push the stationary front to our south into Thursday morning. What this would mean for our area is drier conditions, but a return to below-normal temperatures. The Euro is slower and less aggressive with this shortwave and would keep our area cloudy with near-to-below normal temps. For this package, we followed our normal long-term consensus blend which yielded near normal temperatures through the period and low chances for rain after Wednesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Aviation...
-- Changed Discussion --
[Through 00Z Sunday] VFR conditions with CIGS around 50kft through the TAF cycle. Light winds tonight will become southeast at 10-14 knots with gusts of 15-20 knots on Saturday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Marine... As high pressure moves east of the area and a cold front approaches, southeast winds are expected to increase to advisory levels tonight into Saturday across most of the area. As the front weakens, winds will diminish below advisory levels for Sunday. && .Fire Weather... Onshore flow will increase humidity levels substantially beginning on Saturday with red flag conditions not expected in the near future. && .Hydrology... A round of light rain is possible early next week, but totals will be too low to cause significant rises on our area rivers. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 33 68 52 75 54 / 0 0 10 20 20 Panama City 42 67 58 70 54 / 0 10 20 30 20 Dothan 36 67 54 72 47 / 0 10 30 60 40 Albany 32 66 51 74 48 / 0 10 20 50 40 Valdosta 33 69 50 75 53 / 0 0 10 20 30 Cross City 32 70 49 77 54 / 0 0 0 10 10 Apalachicola 42 65 57 70 56 / 0 0 10 20 20 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
-- Changed Discussion --
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK through late Saturday night for Coastal Bay- Coastal Gulf-South Walton. RIP CURRENT RISK through Saturday evening for Coastal Franklin. High Surf Advisory until 9 PM CST Saturday for South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM- Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM- Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ NEAR TERM...BARRY SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM...DVD/DOBBS AVIATION...BARRY MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...BARRY HYDROLOGY...MOORE

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.