Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 191955
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
255 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2015
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The surface high pressure situated along the Florida Panhandle will
keep skies clear and winds light and variable through this evening,
allowing highs to rise to the mid to upper 60s. As high pressure
shifts eastward tonight, we will begin to see some lower level
isentropic ascent to our southwest, increasing cloud coverage along
the Florida Panhandle and out over the Gulf waters. Cloud coverage
building in our southwestern zones will mean lows in that area won`t
cool quite as much, staying in the low 40s. In the Big Bend area,
where surface high pressure will reign, lows will be in the mid 30s.
Patchy frost will be possible in this area in the late night and
early morning hours.
.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
This period will be fairly uneventful with zonal flow in place
across the region and surface high pressure north of the region
keeping rain chances negligible. Temps will be mild.
.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
Northern and southern stream energy will phase over the Southern
Plains and then slide east across the Gulf Coast states.
Cyclogenesis will occur over the northwest Gulf of Mexico on
Thursday. There remain differences among the various models as to
how quickly, and at what latitude, this low will traverse the
northern Gulf of Mexico. Most scenarios make rain likely for
Thursday night and Friday with the system moving east of the area on
Saturday. Temperatures will be cooler than normal through most of
[Through 18Z Tuesday] High pressure along the Gulf coast will produce
generally light and variable winds with KTLH, KABY, and KVLD going
calm overnight. Some of the guidance is indicating the possibility
for MVFR ceilings to move onshore at KECP around 12Z as the high
pressure shifts eastward. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected
throughout the period.
Winds and seas will be low through Wednesday night. Low pressure
will then track across the northern Gulf of Mexico increasing east
to northeast winds to cautionary levels on Thursday. Marginal small
craft advisory conditions are possible Thursday night into Friday,
especially across the western legs.
Relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical
values for the next several days. With high pressure in place for
Tuesday and Wednesday, light transport winds will produce low
dispersion indices each afternoon. A storm system will begin to
approach the region on Thursday with the next chance of rainfall
coming on Friday.
All area rivers are below flood stage and staying steady or falling.
Our next chance for rainfall will be Thursday. QPF values are
expected to be an inch or less at this time, which will not cause
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 35 71 49 69 47 / 0 0 10 10 10
Panama City 45 67 53 65 48 / 0 10 10 10 10
Dothan 41 68 48 65 43 / 0 0 10 10 10
Albany 38 68 46 66 42 / 0 0 10 10 10
Valdosta 37 69 48 68 45 / 0 0 10 10 0
Cross City 35 72 48 71 48 / 0 0 10 10 10
Apalachicola 44 68 54 68 51 / 0 0 10 10 10