Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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853
FXUS62 KTAE 231443
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1043 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
THE MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS EXTENSIVE LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED
JUST SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WITH COOL NORTHERLY FLOW
NORTH OF THE LOW, EXPECT LOW CLOUDINESS TO PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY
IN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING MAY NEAR
THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ELSEWHERE THE
RAIN HAS COME TO AN END. THERE WILL BE A LARGE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NEAR 80 ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
BIG BEND WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY] LOW CEILINGS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH IFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO
LIFT THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH TLH AND ECP WILL BE NEAR THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK. HOWEVER, CEILINGS WILL SPREAD
SOUTHWARD AFTER SUNSET WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH 12Z WERE GENERALLY BETWEEN
0.5-1.00 INCHES WITH A NARROW BAND OF 1.5-2.5 INCHES ALONG THE
FL/GA BORDER AND ANOTHER BAND OF 2-4 INCHES FROM JUST WEST OF
BLOUNTSTOWN WEST TO SOUTHERN WALTON COUNTY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TODAY WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR SO, MAINLY ACROSS THE FL BIG
BEND. THESE TOTALS WILL RESULT IN ONLY MINOR RISES ON AREA RIVERS,
MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST FL BASINS FROM THE AUCILLA RIVER WEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [625 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTH FL AS THE
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES RATHER ZONAL OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. ON
WEDNESDAY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM...WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTH FL. MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM APPEARS RATHER SHALLOW...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FORCING AND
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH FL AND SOUTH CENTRAL GA.
THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT ESPECIALLY COLD...AND ITS
MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO BRING OUR TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
AVERAGE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S TUESDAY...THEN IN THE
MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S.


.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...

THE NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING MID WEEK WILL TRANSITION
TO A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN. MUCH COLDER...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH FAIR WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE...IN
THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR LOWS. HIGHS
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S.


.MARINE...

MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE TO NEAR
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THEY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST.


.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL AND KEEP
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WELL AWAY FROM RED FLAG LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   76  55  75  58  81 /  40  10   0   0  10
PANAMA CITY   74  57  70  61  75 /  10   0  10  10  10
DOTHAN        66  51  70  56  77 /  10   0   0   0  10
ALBANY        64  50  70  57  76 /  20   0   0   0  10
VALDOSTA      70  52  72  57  81 /  20  10  10   0  20
CROSS CITY    81  56  75  59  83 /  50  20  10   0  10
APALACHICOLA  75  59  72  63  75 /  50  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...WOOL



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