Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 151926
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
325 PM EDT Wed May 15 2013
.NEAR TERM [Today and Tonight]...
Surface high pressure and zonal flow aloft will keep the area sunny
and warm today with near normal to slightly above normal
temperatures in the upper 80s (mid 80s along the immediate coast).
It`s a beautiful day for outdoor activities! This morning`s low in
Tallahassee was 51, which tied the record from 2002. No other
records were broken or tied this morning. Minimum temperatures
tonight will be slightly below normal, in the low 60s-upper 50s.
.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday night]...
The low amplitude upper ridge over the SE CONUS will flatten as the
closed upper low currently east of the Texas panhandle lifts into
the Missouri Valley Thursday. This feature will weaken into an open
trough as it moves across the Midwest and into the Ohio Valley
Thursday night through Friday night. Onshore flow will continue with
the surface ridge axis cutting through the northern Gulf. Cannot
rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm each afternoon. Will
show 20% PoP for portions of the tri-state region Friday and Friday
night. Near seasonal temperatures are expected with mid to upper 80s
for highs and upper 50s to lower 60s for lows.
.LONG TERM [Saturday through Wednesday]...
The aforementioned shortwave trough will pass to the north of the
area Saturday. Then, weak troughing will be present along or just
off the eastern seaboard Sunday through mid week. At the surface, an
east to west ridge axis will remain in place through the period with
the axis wavering back and forth from our coastal waters to just
inland. Isolated convection will be possible each afternoon along
and ahead of the sea breeze in the warm moist environment. Afternoon
max temps will be near seasonal norms in the upper 80s, with cooler
upper 70s to lower 80s at the beaches. Overnight lows will be
slightly above normal in the lower to mid 60s.
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. GFS LAMP guidance
suggesting the possibility of some BR around 10Z at TLH and VLD, but
higher res models, the WRF and HRRR, as well as the SREF, were not
showing lower vsbys, so left out of TAFs.
A surface ridge of high pressure pressure will remain in place over
or just north of the waters through the weekend. This high will keep
winds light and primarily onshore with a slight enhancement in wind
speeds each afternoon near the coast in association with the sea
The low level airmass is forecast to slowly moisten over the next
few days. This will keep durations of critical humidity below
headline criteria, with no red flag conditions expected. High
pressure will yield warm temperatures and high mixing heights over
the next few days. This will result in elevated dispersion values
over the Florida Panhandle especially on Thursday. Red flag concerns
are not anticipated into the upcoming work week.
There are no concerns on area rivers and creeks for the next
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 58 87 62 89 62 / 0 0 0 10 10
PANAMA CITY 64 84 65 82 66 / 0 0 0 10 10
DOTHAN 61 86 63 88 64 / 0 0 0 20 10
ALBANY 61 88 63 90 63 / 0 0 0 20 10
VALDOSTA 59 87 61 88 63 / 0 0 0 20 20
CROSS CITY 58 86 61 88 62 / 0 0 0 20 20
APALACHICOLA 60 82 64 83 64 / 0 0 0 10 10
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...Barry