Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 170037
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
837 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Rainfall totals today have been around 1-2" for the most part, with
a few spots receiving 2-4" and a whopping 6-9" in the
Holmes-Washington county area. As a cold front pushes south into our
forecast area through the night, ongoing scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the area will move south as well. The most rain
overnight will likely be in the eastern Big Bend, south central
Georgia, and over our offshore waters. With less instability now
that it`s night time, most of these showers won`t be sustained for
as long as they were during the daytime, but with high moisture
still in place ahead of the front, we may get enough rain in a few
spots to cause localized flooding concerns overnight. Lows tonight
will be cooler, in the upper 60s to around 70.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Thursday] MVFR-IFR restrictions will be possible
again tonight at DHN, ABY, and VLD, with IFR conditions more
likely at VLD where soil moisture is high from recent rainfall. By
15Z, VFR conditions should return and prevail through the
remainder of the period.

&&

.Prev Discussion [350 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
A weak frontal boundary will move through the region on Wednesday
bringing some much needed drier air to the region, though very
little in the way of cooler air. As this drier air overspreads the
region through Thursday, expect rain chances to drop to near zero
with partly cloudy skies. High temperatures generally in the upper
80s to lower 90s can be expected, though the big story will be the
drop in humidity.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...
By Friday, the mid level pattern begins to stagnate as models show
an upper low cutting off across Northeastern Florida as a weak
ridge builds across the Mid Atlantic States. This type of pattern
will keep partly to mostly skies in place through the weekend with
moderate easterly flow. Low end rain chances can be expected,
especially across the eastern portions of the region.

Late Sunday and into Monday the pattern across the CONUS becomes
highly amplified with a deepening trough across the Eastern US
and a large ridge across the western states. As this pattern
amplifies, the models diverge in whether a cold front will make
its way into the Gulf Coast States and possibly beyond. The 16/12z
Euro stalls the boundary across our region as the main mid and
upper level support lifts out into New England whereas the 16/00z
and 16/12z GFS had some degree of frontal passage late in the
period. Climatology in late September would argue against a front
clearing the forecast area, so will lean closer on a solution
supported by the latest Euro for late in the period.


.Marine...
After a brief increase in winds this afternoon, relatively light
winds are expected across the marine area through the remainder of
the week. Winds will shift to easterly and increase to moderate
levels on Saturday as high pressure builds down the Atlantic
seaboard.


.Fire Weather...
Soil moisture and relative humidity will be high this week,
keeping red flag concerns at a minimum.


.Hydrology...
Slow moving storms will continue to deliver locally heavy rainfall
across the region through today. Localized rainfall amounts of 3
to 4 inches could cause minor flooding of low lying areas. This
rainfall will cause some rises of the smaller creeks and streams,
though all rivers should remain well below flood stage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   70  91  69  91  68 /  50  10  10  10  10
Panama City   74  91  71  90  70 /  50  10  10  10  10
Dothan        69  90  65  88  65 /  30  10  10  10  10
Albany        69  91  66  88  65 /  40  10  10  10  10
Valdosta      69  90  66  91  66 /  60  20  10  10  10
Cross City    70  89  70  92  69 /  60  50  10  10  10
Apalachicola  73  87  74  88  73 /  50  20  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening
     for Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...WESTON






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