Area Forecast Discussion
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871 FXUS62 KTAE 201903 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 303 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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The large scale amplified pattern continues to favor an unsettled weather pattern. This is highlighted by a strengthening ridge over Srn Rockies/Desert SW and a deepening trough over Ern states including the NE Gulf region. At surface, weak low over SW AL with frontal boundary extending SW to Texas and Ewd to across AL becoming a weak trough lifting Newd into the Carolina`s and Delmarva coast. Looking south, weak high pressure extends from Gulf waters across Cntrl FL Peninsula and into Wrn Atlc. Locally, all this translates to near uni-directional WSW flow and PWATS near 2 inches with deep moisture pooling south of front. As a result, mid-aftn radar showed sct convection moving WSW around 10 mph across much of area. HI-RES guidance shows that most aftn convection should be largely east of I-75 by late evening, however another bout of convection will begin to move into our Wrn areas after midnight and spread E/NE as a shortwave ejects NEWD out of Gulf of Mex. Will go with 20-50% W-E POP gradient 00z-06z and 60-30% SW-NE POP gradient 06z-12z. Local guidance suggests atmosphere not conducive to strong or severe storms. Overnight lows should remain in the lower 70s at most locations, except for mid to a few upper 70s near the immediate coast. .Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]... The upper level trough will narrow and deepen over the southeast CONUS with a low closing off by Monday afternoon over Alabama. This feature will slowly drift southwestward through the short term period. Deep layer moisture and onshore flow along with the added instability of daytime heating will keep Pops in the good to likely category for most of the FA each afternoon. Max temps will range from around 90 to the lower 90s. Overnight lows should remain generally in the lower 70s at most locations, except for mid to a few upper 70s near the immediate coast. .Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]... The mid/upper level trough will persist across the local region through the extended period. The trough will be wedged between the Bermuda Ridge and strong ridging centered over the Desert Southwest. Temperatures along with rain chances are expected to be at or above climo each day.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Monday] Convection will continue to spread EWD thru this aftn/eve. Focused thunderstorm TEMPO groups across ABY/VLD/TLH thru late aftn. Brief IFR conditions are possible with the stronger storms. Should see things quiet down after 00z. After 07z..expect MVFR VSBYS/CIGS at TAF sites with possible brief IFR near sunrise especially where residual or late rain occurs. After 12z scattered showers and isold tstms with MVFR conditions in any heavy rain remain possible at KVLD and possibly KTLH.
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&& .Marine...
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Slightly elevated winds and seas will diminish tonight as a surface low over our local waters dissipates. Then, we expect light southwest winds with low seas through the upcoming work week.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Moist conditions for the next several days will favor enhanced precipitation. Red flag criteria is not expected trough the upcoming work week.
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&& .Hydrology...
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There is a good chance for showers and thunderstorms over the next several days, but only isolated heavy rainfall amounts are expected. Area rivers should remain below flood stage.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 74 89 73 92 71 / 40 60 40 50 30 Panama City 77 89 76 89 75 / 50 60 30 40 20 Dothan 73 91 73 93 72 / 30 40 20 40 20 Albany 73 90 73 93 72 / 40 50 20 50 30 Valdosta 73 89 71 92 71 / 40 70 40 50 30 Cross City 73 89 71 93 72 / 30 70 40 50 40 Apalachicola 78 88 76 89 75 / 40 70 40 50 30
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay- Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...BLOCK SHORT TERM...BARRY LONG TERM...BARRY AVIATION...BLOCK MARINE...BARRY FIRE WEATHER...BLOCK HYDROLOGY...BOLDEN

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