Area Forecast Discussion
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838 FXUS62 KTAE 111405 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1005 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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Zonal flow aloft and surface high pressure will continue to provide mild and dry weather today. Temperatures are on track to approach 80 degrees this afternoon, with just a few high clouds moving in from the west. Only minor tweaks to the forecast for today.
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&& .Prev Discussion [607 AM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]... High pressure will remain centered near or just east of the region throughout the short term period. This will result in a period of dry and warm conditions with temperatures near to slightly above average. The model guidance does show a sea breeze developing along the coast each afternoon, which will likely result in temperatures near the beaches being a few degrees cooler in the afternoon given how cool the shelf waters remain. .Long Term [Sunday Night Through Thursday]... The primary focus in the long term period will be on an approaching storm system in the Monday through Tuesday Evening time frame. While the models are reasonably synced on the timing of this system bringing the bulk of the rain through on Monday afternoon and overnight, there are subtle differences with respect to the intensity of the system. Most of the models prefer a weaker solution with a cold front coming through early Tuesday morning with little prospect for severe weather or widespread heavy rain. The Euro tries to develop a more potent wave in the southern stream, resulting in a stronger system. For now, have kept the system more progressive and weaker. In any event, should be a good rain producer with 1 to 1.5 inches possible. Thereafter, drier and cooler conditions return for the remainder of the period. .Aviation... [Through 12Z Saturday]...MVFR VSBYS may linger at ECP and VLD til 13z. Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail thru at least 07z Sat. Expect light southerly winds to bring some afternoon Cu clouds onshore with winds becoming calm after sundown. After 07z...Expect MVFR VSBYS especially at VLD and TLH with possible IFR VSBYS and MVFR CIGS there before sunrise. .Marine... High pressure will remain in place across the marine area throughout much of the weekend. By Sunday, as high pressure moves into the Western Atlantic, the tightening gradient between this high and an approaching storm system will result in increasing winds and seas by the first of the week. .Fire Weather... Light onshore flow through Sunday will allow enough low-level moisture to keep minimum humidity values above critical levels. The airmass will noticeably moisten up on Monday with the next weather system. No red flag concerns are expected thru that time. .Hydrology... Nearly all of the rivers across the northern portion of our area have crested and continue to fall. Rises are still occurring farther to the south across portions of the lower Choctawhatchee River, Apalachicola River, Flint River, Ochlockonee River, and Steinhatchee River. The next chance of rainfall is on Monday into Tuesday. The system currently appears progressive enough to prevent excessive rainfall, but rainfall amounts may be enough to temporarily halt some of the river falls. The most up to date, specific river forecast information can be found on the AHPS page at http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 78 52 83 55 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 Panama City 76 58 78 61 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dothan 78 54 82 57 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 80 53 82 56 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 80 53 85 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cross City 81 53 83 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 76 56 78 61 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...CAMP SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM...GODSEY AVIATION...BLOCK MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...BLOCK HYDROLOGY...DVD

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