Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
818 FXUS62 KTAE 112351 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 751 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
-- Changed Discussion --
Little additional convective development is expected this evening despite the myriad outflow boundaries out there. The storms over the Panhandle should be the last to die off and the radar should be rain-free by 02Z. Our local WRF wants to bring some of the convection over North GA and central AL tantalizingly close to our northern zones later tonight, but most models do not support this and we did not put it in the forecast grids. Isolated storms will once again develop after midnight over the marine area.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Aviation...
-- Changed Discussion --
[Through 00Z Friday] With convection finally winding down around ECP, all sites should remain restriction free to start the night. Expect MVFR visibilities at ECP and DHN tonight, clearing quickly around sunrise. Most of the day tomorrow should be free of storms at all terminals, with a late afternoon arrival of storms possible at ABY and VLD.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Prev Discussion [318 PM EDT]...
-- Changed Discussion --
.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]... The tropical wave trying to get itself organized off the east coast of FL north of the Bahamas will likely not have much success as it tracks west-southwestward across South FL and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Friday evening. The wave will pass west of our longitude on Saturday. Meanwhile, the front over the Ohio Valley will push southeastward into central GA and southern AL Saturday night. Sensible weather on Friday will be similar to today with the upper ridge largely suppressing convection and allowing temps to reach the lower to mid 90s. Our position to the east of the tropical wave and the approaching front will increase PoPs for Saturday with highest PoPs near the front. .Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]... The elongated east-west oriented ridge axis will still be in place at the start of the period. However, it will begin to break down early in the work week as a long wave trough begins to amplify into the Southeast. This trough will help push the front currently draped across the Ohio Valley toward the Gulf Coast. It is still uncertain just how far south the front will make it before stalling. There appears to be model consensus that there will be enough energy upstream in the long wave trough to induce weak waves on the front that will help inhibit its southward progress. The proximity of the boundary through much of the period will result in unsettled conditions with above normal PoPs for the most part. Max temps will correspondingly be generally below normal from Monday onward. .Marine... A very weak pressure gradient is forecast to remain in place. This will keep winds and seas well below any headline criteria. .Fire Weather... No fire weather concerns at least through the middle of next week. .Hydrology... Rainfall totals over the next few days are expected to be below normal and not have an impact on area rivers. However, QPF is expected to increase next work week.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 73 94 74 93 72 / 10 20 20 40 30 Panama City 76 91 77 90 76 / 10 20 20 40 30 Dothan 72 94 73 92 72 / 10 20 20 50 30 Albany 73 95 73 92 72 / 10 30 20 50 30 Valdosta 71 94 72 92 71 / 10 30 20 40 20 Cross City 71 93 71 92 70 / 10 20 20 30 20 Apalachicola 75 90 76 88 76 / 10 20 20 30 20 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...WOOL SHORT TERM...WOOL LONG TERM...WOOL AVIATION...HARRIGAN MARINE...WOOL FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY HYDROLOGY...WOOL

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.