Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
158 FXUS62 KTAE 130106 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 906 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 .NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
-- Changed Discussion --
HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT. AN AREA OF RAIN HAS SET UP ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. RADAR INDICATES THAT 4 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN SO FAR IN WASHINGTON AND JACKSON COUNTIES. HIGH REFLECTIVITIES WITH LITTLE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ARE TYPICAL OF HIGH RAINFALL RATES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FLOODING CONCERNS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
[THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY]... CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR AND MVFR OVERNIGHT. IFR IS EXPECTED DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG STARTING AT 08Z. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED AT DHN OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD AT DHN, ABY AND ECP TOMORROW.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PREV DISCUSSION [401 PM EDT]...
-- Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM [MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]... UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET AFFECTS THE REGION. THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND PWAT VALUES CONTINUING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH WIND FIELDS REMAINING UNIMPRESSIVE. THE MAIN IMPACT TO THE AREA WILL BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS...AND SOME OF THE CAM GUIDANCE RESPONDS WITH ISOLATED VERY HEAVY AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION AND EXACT TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO SUBTLE NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET...WHICH CAN BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50-70 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE DAY AND 40-50 PERCENT AT NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DUE TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE. .LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]... THE UNSETTLED EL NINO-ISH PATTERN MAY CONTINUE ALL THE WAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ON THE HEMISPHERIC SCALE...THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS VERY WELL DEFINED ALL THE WAY WEST OF HAWAII AND WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES AROUND THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH NEAR AVERAGE DAYTIME HIGHS. .MARINE... IN GENERAL...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. .FIRE WEATHER... THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. WHILE AREAS MAY NOT SEE A WETTING RAIN EACH DAY...MOST AREAS WILL HAVE A WETTING RAIN SOMETIME OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 60 IN THE AFTERNOONS. .HYDROLOGY... ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH AVERAGE TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK...HIGHEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH CONVECTION...LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY. THESE AMOUNTS MAY FORCE SOME RIVERS INTO ACTION OR EVEN MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TALLAHASSEE 69 80 68 83 69 / 60 60 40 50 30 PANAMA CITY 71 78 71 79 69 / 60 60 40 50 30 DOTHAN 67 79 66 82 66 / 70 70 50 60 30 ALBANY 66 79 67 84 66 / 60 70 50 60 30 VALDOSTA 67 82 67 84 67 / 50 70 40 60 30 CROSS CITY 69 82 68 83 68 / 30 60 40 40 30 APALACHICOLA 72 79 72 81 70 / 50 60 40 40 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...WESTON SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM...DVD AVIATION...WESTON MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...WESTON HYDROLOGY...DVD

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.