Area Forecast Discussion
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436 FXUS62 KTAE 181425 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1025 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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The Tri-State region remains sandwiched between a mid/upper level ridge to our SE and a shortwave trough to our immediate NW. The radar imagery this morning is littered with returns across most of southern Alabama, though much of this rain is not reaching the surface as it is evaporating in a relatively dry low-layer and a very dry pocket around 800 mb. The dry layer will slowly erode through the day, and the shortwave will encroach a bit more on our Alabama and Florida panhandle counties late this afternoon. This may result in a few showers later today. Elsewhere, a brief shower may be possible late in the day across the Suwannee Valley associated with the east coast seabreeze front, though confidence is low in this area. Expect highs in the lower to middle 90s today, with one more afternoon of relatively low humidity levels (especially across the Big Bend of Florida and southwest Georgia).
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12Z Saturday]... VFR conditions will prevail under a rather solid mid/upper cloud deck. There is a slight possibility of MVFR ceilings spreading ashore near ECP later in the afternoon, though there is much uncertainty regarding this solution. Winds should remain light away from the coast with little to no rainfall expected.
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&& .Prev Discussion [338 AM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]... With a mid/upper level trough moving over the Southeast throughout the short term period, expect rain chances to be on the increase through the weekend. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement with rain chances in the 60 to 70 percent range for Saturday as the leading edge of the disturbance moves into the region. Expect an earlier start to convection, which will limit high temperatures to only around 90 on Saturday. By Sunday, even though the main disturbance will be moving into the Carolinas, the overall East Coast trough will remain in place and with plenty of deep layer moisture available expect good coverage of showers and storms by afternoon. Storm activity on Sunday should be a little more dirunally driven, but still enough convection should take place to keep temperatures in the lower 90s in the afternoon. Overnight lows throughout the short term period will return to typical levels for July. .Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]... The long term period will be fairly active for our CWA as long wave troughing continues its grip on the Eastern CONUS with ridging in the West. This typically features rain chances that are above climatology for our CWA so went with blend of higher HPC guidance with GFS/Euro which yields rain chances near 70 percent each day in the period. With higher chances for rain, temperatures are expected to be below climatology as well with most locations likely reaching AOB 90. .Marine... A weak pressure pattern typical for the summer months will be in place into next week. This will result in light winds and low seas for the next several days. .Fire Weather... Today should be the last mostly dry day on the horizon in quite sometime, as a trof of low pressure moves in from the west and stalls in our vicinity. This will bring a return to elevated rain chances and high relative humidities throughout the coming days. .Hydrology... Rain chances will increase through the weekend. Isolated rainfall totals in excess of 2 to 4 inches are expected across the western half of the forecast area with lesser amounts of 1 to 2 inches through Sunday night. Rainfall amounts should not be widespread enough to cause any river flooding, though some localized issues in flood prone areas are possible.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 94 71 90 72 91 / 10 20 50 30 60 Panama City 89 75 86 74 88 / 10 30 60 30 40 Dothan 92 73 87 72 90 / 10 30 70 30 60 Albany 94 71 86 72 89 / 10 20 60 30 60 Valdosta 95 71 89 71 91 / 10 20 50 30 60 Cross City 93 71 92 72 90 / 20 10 40 30 40 Apalachicola 88 74 86 73 87 / 10 20 50 30 40
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN SHORT TERM...GODSEY LONG TERM...WOOL AVIATION...HARRIGAN MARINE...GODSEY FIRE WEATHER...GOULD HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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