Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 111405
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1005 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2014
.Near Term [Through Today]...
Zonal flow aloft and surface high pressure will continue to
provide mild and dry weather today. Temperatures are on track to
approach 80 degrees this afternoon, with just a few high clouds
moving in from the west. Only minor tweaks to the forecast for
.Prev Discussion [607 AM EDT]...
.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
High pressure will remain centered near or just east of the region
throughout the short term period. This will result in a period
of dry and warm conditions with temperatures near to slightly
above average. The model guidance does show a sea breeze
developing along the coast each afternoon, which will likely
result in temperatures near the beaches being a few degrees cooler
in the afternoon given how cool the shelf waters remain.
.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Thursday]...
The primary focus in the long term period will be on an
approaching storm system in the Monday through Tuesday Evening
time frame. While the models are reasonably synced on the timing
of this system bringing the bulk of the rain through on Monday
afternoon and overnight, there are subtle differences with respect
to the intensity of the system. Most of the models prefer a weaker
solution with a cold front coming through early Tuesday morning
with little prospect for severe weather or widespread heavy rain.
The Euro tries to develop a more potent wave in the southern
stream, resulting in a stronger system. For now, have kept the
system more progressive and weaker. In any event, should be a good
rain producer with 1 to 1.5 inches possible. Thereafter, drier and
cooler conditions return for the remainder of the period.
[Through 12Z Saturday]...MVFR VSBYS may linger at ECP and VLD til
13z. Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail thru at least 07z
Sat. Expect light southerly winds to bring some afternoon Cu
clouds onshore with winds becoming calm after sundown. After
07z...Expect MVFR VSBYS especially at VLD and TLH with possible
IFR VSBYS and MVFR CIGS there before sunrise.
High pressure will remain in place across the marine area
throughout much of the weekend. By Sunday, as high pressure moves
into the Western Atlantic, the tightening gradient between this
high and an approaching storm system will result in increasing
winds and seas by the first of the week.
Light onshore flow through Sunday will allow enough low-level
moisture to keep minimum humidity values above critical levels.
The airmass will noticeably moisten up on Monday with the next
weather system. No red flag concerns are expected thru that time.
Nearly all of the rivers across the northern portion of our area
have crested and continue to fall. Rises are still occurring
farther to the south across portions of the lower Choctawhatchee
River, Apalachicola River, Flint River, Ochlockonee River, and
Steinhatchee River. The next chance of rainfall is on Monday into
Tuesday. The system currently appears progressive enough to
prevent excessive rainfall, but rainfall amounts may be enough to
temporarily halt some of the river falls.
The most up to date, specific river forecast information can be
found on the AHPS page at
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 78 52 83 55 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 76 58 78 61 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 78 54 82 57 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 80 53 82 56 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 80 53 85 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 81 53 83 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 76 56 78 61 77 / 0 0 0 0 0