Area Forecast Discussion
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645
FXUS62 KTAE 140036
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
836 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Regional 00Z surface analysis shows a cold front stretching across
our area from near Panama City,FL to Thomasville, GA to Douglas, GA.
Local radar imagery shows a line of thunderstorms right along this
front. Precipitable water on the 00Z TAE sounding is 1.84", which is
slightly above normal for this time of year. These thunderstorms are
moving very slowly tonight with little to no upper level forcing to
move them, so the moderate to heavy rain that they are producing
will stay over a given area for a while. Flooding is the biggest
concern with these storms once again tonight. These storms are also
producing lots of lightning. Lows tonight will be in the low 70s.


&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Monday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period, however, there may be periods of MVFR
conditions this evening and Sunday evening when thunderstorms are
affecting area terminals. Due to the scattered nature of the
storms, confidence is too low to put as prevailing for any one
terminal.


&&

.Prev Discussion [305 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
Deep moisture will linger across the area through the short term
with precipitable water values near to slightly above 2 inches at
times. A weak boundary will also be bisecting the northern part of
the area in an east-west fashion. These factors would argue for
fairly high PoPs on Sunday and Monday. However, the ensemble of CAM
guidance is quite dry for Sunday afternoon, which lowers confidence
a bit. Given the overall large scale pattern, feel the CAM ensemble
is a little too dry and stayed with the inherited 40-50% PoPs from
the previous forecast. Daytime highs will be mostly in the lower
90s with lows in the low to mid 70s.


.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
Deep moisture will continue to be present across the area with a
stalled frontal boundary also in the vicinity. These ingredients
point to an unsettled period coming up with an above average chance
of rain on Tuesday and Wednesday. Some locally heavy rain is
possible given the weak boundary and deep tropical moisture
expected to be in place. A drying trend is possible for most of
the area with the exception of the southeast big bend near the end
of the week as the deepest moisture may get pushed to the south.
Daytime highs are expected to be near to slightly below normal
through most of the week.


.Marine...
Winds and seas will be slightly elevated this weekend as a weak
tropical disturbance passes well to the south of the coastal
waters. For the early and middle part of next week, a weak
surface pressure pattern will return to the marine area, with
typically low summertime winds and seas expected. By the end of
the week, easterly winds may increase as high pressure builds over
the northeast states and the pressure gradient tightens.


.Fire Weather...
Relative humidity will remain above 40 percent through next week,
so no red flag conditions will occur.


.Hydrology...
Some locally heavy rainfall in a short period of time is possible
through this evening with some of the slow moving storms in the
area, but widespread heavy amounts are not likely. Isolated
instances of flooding could occur, especially if one of the slow
moving storms affects an urban area. By the middle of the week, a
better chance of more widespread rain is expected, some of which
could be occasionally heavy.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   73  92  72  91  72 /  30  40  20  50  30
Panama City   76  90  75  90  75 /  50  40  20  50  40
Dothan        70  91  72  91  71 /  50  50  30  50  30
Albany        72  92  72  91  71 /  50  50  30  50  30
Valdosta      72  92  71  91  71 /  30  40  30  50  30
Cross City    71  92  71  91  71 /  30  40  20  50  30
Apalachicola  76  89  75  89  75 /  30  40  20  40  40

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...DVD






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