Area Forecast Discussion
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909 FXUS62 KTAE 170324 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1024 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Much of the active weather associated with the cold front will occur after 12Z Monday, and is detailed in the previous "short term" discussion below. The overall forecast reasoning has changed little since this afternoon. The main changes made to the forecast were to add more precise timing based on an average of the convection-allowing models (CAM), which are actually in fairly good agreement on the arrival of the main line of storms. The CAMs place the primary convective line near our western zones right around 12Z, advance it to ABY-PAM by 15-16Z, and push it through most of the rest of our forecast area by 20Z. Some isolated to scattered showers and storms cannot be ruled out later tonight - mainly after 08Z - but the bulk of the convective activity should hold off until after 12Z. As of 03Z this evening, temperatures have likely reached close to the minimum for tonight, and increasing low-level WAA should allow for a steady temperature increase for the rest of the night. By daybreak, most areas should see temperatures 65-70 degrees. Looking at convection upstream, supercells have developed in a broken line from S LA into S MS with a few tornado and wind damage reports thus far. The storms have been developing in an environment characterized by MLCAPE around 500 j/kg with around 50 knots of effective deep-layer shear and 25-30 knots of 0-1km shear. That is relatively similar to the environment forecast by most models across our area tomorrow, so the outlook for a Slight Risk of severe storms still seems to be on track, particularly over the southern half of the area.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Tuesday] CIGS should gradually lower into the IFR range overnight with some patchy MVFR visibility restrictions in fog possible as well. +TSRA should arrive from the west tomorrow in the form of a broken line of storms, arriving first at DHN around 13Z, eventually reaching TLH around 17Z and VLD around 19Z. Some storms could produce gusty winds. During the day, the flight categories will likely fluctuate, but the forecast calls for MVFR- IFR improving to VFR after the storms exit a particular terminal.
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&& .Prev Discussion [349 PM EST]...
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.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]... Showers and thunderstorms spread across the forecast area from west to east Monday morning ahead of the approaching cold front. Guidance continues to indicate a rapid recovery to the low-level air mass, with dewpoints reaching the upper 60s over the southern half of the area. These dewpoints will help to support surface- based CAPE approaching 1000 j/kg during the morning and early afternoon hours ahead of the front. With deep-layer shear AOA 50 knots and 0-1km shear around 30 knots, expect to see a few strong to possibly severe cells develop either just ahead of, or embedded within the main line of showers and storms. Isolated tornadoes and damaging straight-line winds appear to be the primary threats, with the area highlighted in the Slight Risk area of the SPC Day 2 Outlook. The front should move into the western zones shortly after 12z, reach the Tallahassee area by 18z, and be exiting the southeastern Big Bend by late in the afternoon. Very strong cold air advection will commence immediately following the frontal passage, with temperatures falling for much of the day over the western half of the forecast area. Roughly the northwestern half of the CWA will likely fall below freezing by sunrise on Tuesday, and a Freeze Watch has been issued for these counties. With the expected winds, may see Wind Chill reading briefly fall below 20 degrees in southeast Alabama. With the continuing cold air advection on Wednesday, temperatures will struggle into the 40s, with only the immediate coast and southeastern Big Bend having a shot at getting above 50 degrees. The coldest night will be Tuesday night as the surface high settles in over central/south Georgia, creating ideal radiational cooling conditions. A widespread hard freeze is likely with low temperatures reaching the lower 20 away from the immediate coast. There may even be a few upper teens in SE Alabama and the inland Florida Panhandle. This will likely be record breaking cold for the date. .Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]... A slow and gradual warming trend will begin on Wednesday. However, highs will still only reach the lower 50s by afternoon, and another solid freeze is expected Wednesday night. Highs through the remainder of the week should make it into the 60s, but even this will be a few degrees below normal. More substantial warming will likely have to wait until late in the weekend ahead of the next significant front and chance of rain. .Marine... Conditions over the coastal waters will deteriorate tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. Onshore winds will reach Small Craft Advisory conditions late tonight, with winds becoming offshore during the day behind the front. Frequent gusts to Gale Force will be possible over the offshore legs Monday night, with Small Craft Advisory conditions elsewhere. Winds and seas will finally diminish Tuesday night as high pressure builds into the area. .Fire Weather... Conditions will be very wet and humid with wet flags posted for Monday, before much colder and drier air moves in for Tuesday and Wednesday. Depending on how cold and dry it ultimately gets (providing the cold air does not cancel out the dry air), Red Flag conditions could be a distinct possibility by the middle of next week. .Hydrology... Rainfall totals associated with the approaching cold front are forecast to remain generally below 1 inch. These amounts may lead to minor rises on area rivers and streams, but have little overall impact.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 62 74 33 49 22 / 50 90 10 0 0 Panama City 63 71 34 50 30 / 50 90 0 0 0 Dothan 58 68 27 44 23 / 60 90 0 0 0 Albany 59 70 28 47 22 / 40 90 0 0 0 Valdosta 60 74 33 49 23 / 20 90 30 0 0 Cross City 60 74 40 52 23 / 20 90 60 0 0 Apalachicola 64 73 37 51 29 / 50 90 10 0 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for Calhoun-Central Walton-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Walton- Jackson-South Walton-Washington. GA...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for Baker-Ben Hill-Calhoun-Clay-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Irwin- Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Tift- Turner-Worth. AL...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Wednesday for Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM. Gale Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning for Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 4 PM EST Monday for Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday for Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ NEAR TERM...LAMERS SHORT TERM...CAMP LONG TERM...CAMP AVIATION...LAMERS MARINE...CAMP FIRE WEATHER...GOULD HYDROLOGY...CAMP

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