Area Forecast Discussion
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506 FXUS62 KTAE 131447 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 947 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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Very few changes made to the existing forecast this morning. Dry weather will continue with sunny skies due to a building ridge and limited moisture (per 12Z Tallahassee sounding). High temperatures in the mid-60s will be near normal for this time of year.
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&& .Prev Discussion [429 AM EST]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]... A dry and quiet short term period is expected. High pressure centered just north of the region will remain in place across the Southeast as mid level ridging builds in by Sunday. While overnight lows will remain rather chilly in the low to mid 30s, afternoon high temperatures will begin to moderate on Sunday with highs approaching or exceeding 70 degrees on Monday. .Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]... The models have continued to trend weaker with an approaching front system on Monday night into Tuesday. In fact with nearly all of the energy with this system remaining well to the north in the Great Lakes, some guidance members struggle to generate any QPF. While some drier air will move in behind the cold front on Wednesday, significantly colder air will remain well to the north. The next chance of rain will arrive by Friday as a storm system begins to organize over the western Gulf in response to a deepening Central/Eastern CONUS trough. .Aviation... [Through 12Z Sunday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with light northwest winds. .Marine... Light offshore winds will continue through the weekend with high pressure centered to the north of the marine area. Winds will shift to easterly and eventually onshore ahead of the next storm system that will approach the area on Tuesday. .Fire Weather... Relative humidity values will be near critical levels this afternoon, especially over portions of the Florida big bend. However, the wind and ERC values are not expected to be supportive of red flag criteria. This afternoon is expected to be the driest period with a gradual moistening through early next week. Due to light winds and rather meager mixing heights, daytime dispersion values will be unusually low today and Sunday. .Hydrology... There will be a slight chance for rain on Monday night, though average amounts should remain below a quarter of an inch. Thus, area rivers and streams should remain in a rather steady state.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 67 33 66 35 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 Panama City 64 43 65 45 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dothan 64 36 64 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 64 34 66 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 65 34 65 36 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cross City 66 32 68 35 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 64 41 63 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...LAMERS SHORT TERM...GODSEY LONG TERM...GODSEY AVIATION...DVD MARINE...GODSEY FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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