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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
262
FXUS62 KTAE 140104
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
904 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2013

...There is a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms Across Portions
of Southeast Alabama and Southwest and South Central Georgia
Overnight...

.NEAR TERM [Rest of Tonight]...
-- Changed Discussion --
A stray seabreeze shower or two still remains over the FL
Panhandle. Radar and satellite imagery currently shows seabreeze
collisions occurring over southern Georgia and Alabama. The 00Z
sounding shows upwards of 4000 CAPE but still plentiful dry air in
the mid-levels which has limited thunderstorm development this
afternoon. Over northern Alabama and Georgia, a cold front is diving
southward and producing a severe line of thunderstorms. As this line
moves to the southeast we will see it approach our northern counties
between midnight and 2 AM EST. Although we anticipate some weakening
of these storms as they approach our area, the adequate
thermodynamics combined with residual boundaries from this
afternoon`s seabreeze could produce thunderstorms, with a chance for
severe thunderstorms. Expect this front to stall over our area by
tomorrow morning which will keep an elevated rain chance in the
forecast for all areas south of the front.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
Decaying MCS along with a frontal boundary will be situated across
the southern half of the forecast area by Friday morning. This
will likely be a focus for convection. However, with the upper
support pulling away quickly and dry air filling in behind the
boundary, activity should be scattered at best. With the upper
ridge breaking down, should also see some slight relief from the
heat, with high temperatures holding in the lower 90s vs. the
upper 90s.

With a dryer airmass continuing to push in for Saturday, expect
only isolated convection confined primarily south of I-10.
Temperatures are expected to be in the lower 90s again on
Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM [Sunday through Thursday]...
The upper pattern is forecast to remain relatively flat and weak
through the first half of next week. With a relatively dry airmass
in place, this will keep rain chances on the low end of scattered,
through Tuesday. By Wednesday and Thursday, a trough is forecast
to amplify along the eastern seaboard, which may improve rain
chances. Temperatures should remain near seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
[Through 00z Saturday] A line of strong to severe thunderstorms
ahead of a cold front currently stretches across northern Alabama
and Georgia, and will continue to move southward through the
evening. As this line moves into our area, the storms could impact
DHN and ABY tonight after 05Z, possibly resulting in MVFR to IFR
conditions. Gusty winds are also a possibility at these terminals as
the storms move through.  As this line continues to move southward,
it could weaken a bit, but enough instability and moisture remains
to continue a threat of scattered thunderstorms from 09Z through
Friday afternoon at ECP, VLD, and TLH.  As the front moves south
of DHN and ABY after 12Z Friday, VFR conditions should return to
these terminals as skies clear and chances for precipitation
diminish.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Winds near exercise caution levels are possible tonight ahead of
an approaching cold front. The front will stall very near the
coast on Friday, with winds weakening through the weekend.
Generally light winds and low seas are then expected into early
next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
River gauges are expected to remain below flood stage for the next
several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Tallahassee   76  93  72  93  70 / 30  30  20  20  10
Panama City   78  89  77  88  75 / 30  30  20  20  10
Dothan        74  94  70  94  72 / 40  20   0  10  10
Albany        76  93  69  93  69 / 40  10   0  10  10
Valdosta      74  93  69  92  67 / 40  30  10  10  10
Cross City    73  89  71  92  69 / 30  30  20  20  10
Apalachicola  76  87  76  86  75 / 10  30  20  20  10
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...Walsh/Wool
SHORT TERM...Camp
LONG TERM...Camp
AVIATION...Lahr/Godsey
MARINE...DVD/Camp
FIRE WEATHER...DVD/Camp
HYDROLOGY...Camp