Area Forecast Discussion
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356 FXUS62 KTAE 211034 RRA AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 354 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2015 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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Zonal flow will be in place in the mid to upper levels. An inverted surface trough moving eastward across the northeast Gulf of Mexico has generated a few light showers early this morning over portions of northwest Florida and adjacent waters. This activity should diminish or move to our east by daybreak. A dry cold front off to our northwest will advance southeastward and pass through the FA later this morning. Temps will be very mild for mid January with highs reaching the lower to mid 70s. .Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]... The main action will be on Thursday night and Friday as an area of low pressure moves along the Gulf coast. There are some relatively minor differences noted in the low track with some models taking the low farther inland in our area and other models keeping the low more along the coast. The northern solutions would bring more of the warm sector inland with a better chance of thunderstorms across the area. Both low level and deep layer shear are strong in either scenario, so we will need to keep a close eye on the instability for late Thursday night into Friday. It is possible we could end up with a low CAPE/high shear scenario and a few stronger storms on Friday over portions of the area if the low tracks far enough to the north. Heavy rainfall will also be a concern with PWAT values near the 99th percentile for the month of January. .Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]... A drying trend is expected through the period behind the wet system on Friday. A fairly strong and deep trough is expected to dig into the eastern states by early next week, but a mostly dry frontal passage is expected locally with northwest flow and a lack of moisture return. A brief cooling trend is possible early next week behind the frontal passage.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12Z Thursday] MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys will prevail at most TAF sites until around 16z with VFR conditions to follow through the remainder of the forecast. Winds will be light and northerly except onshore at ECP.
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&& .Marine...
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Winds will remain fairly light today with a weak pressure gradient in place. East to northeast winds will increase on Thursday as an area of low pressure moves along the Gulf coast. Advisory conditions are possible starting on Thursday night with strong easterly winds. Winds will then veer to the south during the day on Friday and eventually to the northwest on Saturday as the area of low pressure moves through with stormy conditions.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Dispersion indices will be low across most of the Tri-state region this afternoon and Thursday due to light transport winds. Moisture levels will slowly increase with widespread rain expected for Thursday night and Friday as a low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico approaches and passes through. Cooler and drier air will begin to arrive late Saturday with no fire weather concerns at this time.
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&& .Hydrology...
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All area rivers are below flood stage and either steady or falling. A low pressure system could bring widespread 2-3 inch rainfall totals from Thursday night into Saturday morning. This would cause rises on area rivers.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 73 48 69 56 67 / 0 0 10 60 90 Panama City 67 50 65 57 64 / 0 0 20 80 90 Dothan 70 45 62 50 58 / 0 0 20 80 90 Albany 71 43 66 49 59 / 0 0 10 80 90 Valdosta 74 46 70 54 64 / 0 0 10 50 90 Cross City 73 50 73 56 69 / 0 0 10 20 80 Apalachicola 69 52 65 59 67 / 0 0 10 60 90
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...BARRY SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM...DVD AVIATION...BARRY MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...BARRY HYDROLOGY...WOOL

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