Area Forecast Discussion
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220
FXUS62 KTAE 220803
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
403 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS CUTOFF UPPER LOW (WHICH HELPED TO INITIATE SCT
TO NUMRS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR CWA EARLIER IN THE
WEEK DESPITE HAVING ALMOST NO REFLECTION AT THE SFC), THIS NEXT MORE
POTENT SHORTWAVE IS ALREADY UNDERGOING COMPLETE SFC CYCLOGENESIS
OVER EASTERN TX NEAR THE LA BORDER AS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND
HEAD EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AS OF 04 UTC, REGIONAL
ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT IT IS STILL FAIRLY WEAK WITH A MINIMUM SFC
PRESSURE OF 1014-1015 MB, BUT IT IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN TO BETWEEN
1009-1011 MB BEFORE IT REACHES OUR CWA LATER TODAY. WHILE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SFC LOW AND ITS FINAL TRACK WILL LIKELY BE
CRITICAL TO WHERE ANY STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SETUP
ALONG A PROJECTED SQUALL LINE WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT AS DEWPOINTS
ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE WARM SECTOR,
LINGERING FOG AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD INHIBIT SFC AND MEAN
LAYER INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA. ALSO, LOW TO
MID-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE QUITE MARGINAL AT BEST, ONLY ON THE
ORDER OF 30-50 KTS BETWEEN 500 AND 700 MB, WITH AN 850 MB JET
PEAKING AT 20-30 KTS. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE THIS SFC LOW WILL
INITIALLY BE MOVING ALMOST DUE EASTWARD, IT IS PROGGED BY ALL OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS TO BEGIN TO SHUNT SOUTHEASTWARD ONCE IT REACHES OUR
CWA, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 00 UTC ECMWF IS THE
SLOWEST OF THE MODELS TO DO THIS WHICH WOULD KEEP THE BULK OF OUR
CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
LINE UP CLOSEST WITH SPC`S MARGINAL RISK (5 PERCENT) FOR SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL, SO DID ADD GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL TO THE
WEATHER GRIDS BEGINNING AT 15Z TODAY.

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...
BY 00Z MONDAY, THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BE APPROACHING
THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. CONVECTION FROM
SUNDAY SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND BE
SPREADING EASTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
WHILE THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS WAVE WILL BE DECREASING WITH TIME,
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD ONLY SERVE TO ENHANCE
COVERAGE ACROSS THE GEORGIA COUNTIES WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND FORCING LEFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN FACT, SOME OF THESE
STORMS THROUGH MIDDAY COULD BE STRONG, ESPECIALLY IN THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND.

ON TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WITH NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. ASIDE FROM SOME EARLY MORNING CLOUDINESS,
SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE REGION ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC SHIFTING WELL EAST OF THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF WARM SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER, THE
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION WILL CHANGE IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING
TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVING INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA ON FRIDAY LIKELY CLEARING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY
AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH FURTHER AMPLFIES. COOL HIGH PRESSURE
FROM CANADA WILL DROP INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE THERE SHOULD BE GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE BIG STORY BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE MUCH COOLER
WEATHER THAN WHAT WE`VE EXPERIENCED FOR MUCH OF MARCH. GENERALLY,
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY COULD BE BETWEEN 10 AND 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH. IN FACT, THE 22/00Z GFS
SUGGESTS THAT TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY MORNING COULD BE EVEN COLDER
THAN THIS, WITH THE EXTENDED MOS FOR SUNDAY MORNING SUGGESTING A
LIGHT FREEZE. THE EURO ISN`T QUITE THIS COLD, BUT NONETHELESS
SUGGESTS MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FOR NOW,
WILL OBVIOUSLY TREND SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR
SATURDAY/SUNDAY, BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS SUGGESTED BY THE 22/00Z
GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z MONDAY] ONCE AGAIN MOST OF THE TAFS THIS EARLY THIS
MORNING ARE EXTREMELY VARIABLE, MAKING IT VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO
HONE IN ONE ON CATEGORY OVER ANOTHER WITHOUT USING UNREALISTIC TEMPO
GROUPS. THE MOST PERSISTENT AND PESSIMISTIC CIGS AND VIS ARE AT TLH,
ECP, AND VLD, WHICH HAVE BEEN MAINLY VARYING BETWEEN IFR AND LIFR,
BUT WILL OCCASIONALLY HAVE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR LEVEL CONDITIONS.
DHN AND ABY HAVE FAIRED A BIT BETTER, WITH MUCH LONGER PERIODS OF
VFR CONDITIONS. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MFFR/VFR
LEVELS LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTN BEFORE RESTRICTIONS ARRIVE
ONCE AGAIN IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, RESULTING IN LOW WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA
DESPITE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS LOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL AND KEEP AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WELL AWAY FROM RED FLAG LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL TODAY ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 TO 2
INCHES, WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER
STORMS AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN MODEST RISES ON AREA RIVERS WITH A FEW FORECAST
POINTS IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REACHING
ACTION STAGE IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   83  62  78  55  78 /  70  60  50  10  10
PANAMA CITY   76  62  77  54  74 /  70  50  30  10  10
DOTHAN        74  57  71  50  75 /  90  70  40  10  10
ALBANY        72  56  65  50  72 /  90  90  50  20  10
VALDOSTA      81  61  73  52  75 /  90  90  70  20  10
CROSS CITY    84  63  77  55  80 /  30  70  60  20  10
APALACHICOLA  77  63  76  57  74 /  50  40  40  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY



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