Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 101929
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
329 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2014
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Convection this afternoon has been much more suppressed with the
weak ridging aloft and drier mid level airmass. Most of the showers
and storms today have been focused along the Florida Panhandle sea
breeze front though a few have developed along the Florida Big Bend
coast. Expect these showers/storms to dissipate after sunset.
Biggest question overnight is whether we`ll have a repeat of low
stratus across Southern AL/GA again tonight. Low level flow is now
featuring more of a southerly component, which tends to favor less
in the way of low clouds this time of year. However, with moist low
level conditions, patchy fog/stratus will be possible in the late
night hours as surface winds become calm.
.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
The elongated upper level ridge that stretches across the Gulf Coast
states will have its highest heights centered over our forecast area
through this period. This will have the overall effect of
suppressing convection, especially on Thursday when most areas will
only see a 20 PoP. By Friday, the tropical wave currently over the
Bahamas will be entering the eastern Gulf of Mexico and may help to
enhance convective coverage a bit over our eastern zones during the
afternoon and evening hours. Temps will be above normal through the
period with afternoon highs in the lower to mid 90s and overnight
lows generally in the lower 70s.
.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
The tropical wave will be east of the area on Saturday and
increasing deep layer moisture will bring PoPs back to more
typical levels, around 40% for most areas. There are model
discrepancies from Monday onward in terms of how well, if at all,
any weak upper ridging will becomes re-established along the Gulf
Coast. The 09/12Z Euro certainly supports that, while the latest
GFS continued the trend of deepening a trough into the Southeast.
Even with the latter solution, it does not appear that a cold
front will make it too far into the area, if at all. The proximity
of the front will enhance PoPs during the work week. Temps will
start out a couple of degrees above normal (lower 90s) and then
edge gradually downward to the mid/upper 80s by midweek.
[Through 18Z Thursday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
afternoon and early overnight hours. Combination of persistence
and some of the model guidance suggests IFR cigs/vsbys at least at
the DHN/ABY sites after 08z, so will include this in the current
TAF package, but have a more optimistic forecast elsewhere with
weak low level southerly flow. Elsewhere, patchy MVFR conditions
are possible just prior to sunrise.
A very weak pressure gradient is forecast to remain in place. This
will keep winds and seas well below any headline criteria. Wind
direction will primarily be out of the southeast with periods of
easterlies over the weekend.
No fire weather concerns at least through the upcoming weekend.
Rises have slowed and in some cases reversed on area rivers.
Rainfall totals over the next several days are not expected to have
a significant impact on these trends.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 72 94 73 94 73 / 10 20 10 30 20
Panama City 76 90 76 91 77 / 10 30 10 20 20
Dothan 71 93 72 94 72 / 10 20 10 20 20
Albany 72 94 73 95 74 / 10 20 10 30 30
Valdosta 71 94 71 94 72 / 10 20 10 30 30
Cross City 71 93 71 93 71 / 10 20 10 30 20
Apalachicola 75 89 75 90 77 / 10 30 10 20 20