Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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853 FXUS62 KTAE 231443 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1043 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 .NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
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THE MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WITH COOL NORTHERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE LOW, EXPECT LOW CLOUDINESS TO PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY IN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING MAY NEAR THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ELSEWHERE THE RAIN HAS COME TO AN END. THERE WILL BE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NEAR 80 ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.
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&& .AVIATION...
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[THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY] LOW CEILINGS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH IFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH TLH AND ECP WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK. HOWEVER, CEILINGS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD AFTER SUNSET WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH 12Z WERE GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.5-1.00 INCHES WITH A NARROW BAND OF 1.5-2.5 INCHES ALONG THE FL/GA BORDER AND ANOTHER BAND OF 2-4 INCHES FROM JUST WEST OF BLOUNTSTOWN WEST TO SOUTHERN WALTON COUNTY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR SO, MAINLY ACROSS THE FL BIG BEND. THESE TOTALS WILL RESULT IN ONLY MINOR RISES ON AREA RIVERS, MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST FL BASINS FROM THE AUCILLA RIVER WEST.
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&& .PREV DISCUSSION [625 AM EDT]...
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.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]... THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTH FL AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES RATHER ZONAL OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTH FL. MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS RATHER SHALLOW...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH FL AND SOUTH CENTRAL GA. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT ESPECIALLY COLD...AND ITS MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO BRING OUR TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO AVERAGE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S TUESDAY...THEN IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S. .LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]... THE NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING MID WEEK WILL TRANSITION TO A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN. MUCH COLDER...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH FAIR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE...IN THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR LOWS. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. .MARINE... MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE TO NEAR ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THEY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. .FIRE WEATHER... NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL AND KEEP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WELL AWAY FROM RED FLAG LEVELS.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TALLAHASSEE 76 55 75 58 81 / 40 10 0 0 10 PANAMA CITY 74 57 70 61 75 / 10 0 10 10 10 DOTHAN 66 51 70 56 77 / 10 0 0 0 10 ALBANY 64 50 70 57 76 / 20 0 0 0 10 VALDOSTA 70 52 72 57 81 / 20 10 10 0 20 CROSS CITY 81 56 75 59 83 / 50 20 10 0 10 APALACHICOLA 75 59 72 63 75 / 50 10 10 10 10
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&& .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DVD SHORT TERM...FOURNIER LONG TERM...FOURNIER AVIATION...DVD MARINE...FOURNIER FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY HYDROLOGY...WOOL

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