Area Forecast Discussion
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883 FXUS62 KTAE 150108 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 908 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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As the cold front passes through the Tri-State region tonight, cooler and drier air will overspread in its wake. There is a little bit of re-development expected along the front later tonight in the southeast Big Bend, primarily Dixie county. However, it should just be a few showers and be rather quick to move southeast out of the region. Expect lows to range from near 50 degrees across southeast Alabama and the Florida panhandle, to the lower-to-middle 60s at Cross City.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Thursday]... IFR ceilings at VLD will move east away from the terminal within the next few hours. VFR conditions will then prevail at all terminals through the remainder of the TAF.
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&& .Prev Discussion [249 PM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]... A large upper level low pressure system will cover the eastern third of the country on Wednesday. It will only gradually be absorbed back into the mean longwave trough through Thursday. At the surface, high pressure will nose into the Tri-State region on Wednesday, with the surface ridge overspreading the entire Southeast by Thursday night. No rain and seasonable temperatures are expected. Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s each afternoon, with overnight lows around 50 degrees away from the coast. .Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]... Broad troughing, or nearly zonal flow aloft, will prevail locally through the extended range. At the surface, high pressure will remain intact, with no rain in the forecast. Highs will hold steady in the low 80s, which is near average for this time of year. Lows, will be slightly below normal, in the lower to middle 50s. .Marine... Advisory level winds will subside through cautionary levels tonight, before headline conditions are no longer met late tonight. Winds will remain near headline levels through Thursday when the calm center of high pressure moves closer to our Gulf waters. Thereafter, low winds and seas should prevail into next week. .Fire Weather... Relative humidity values will dip through the week behind a cold front passage. The forecast at this time is that they will not dip into the lower 30s or upper 20s until Friday by which time the post frontal winds will have already subsided. No red flag conditions are forecast this week. .Hydrology... Several area rivers have shown sharp rises in response to the rain that fell over the past 24-36 hours. However, prior to this rain event river levels were so low that it is unlikely any of our forecast points will reach minor flood stage. In fact, only a few points along the Shoal and Choctawhatchee rivers are forecast to remain in, or reach action stage.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 54 80 50 79 50 / 10 0 0 0 0 Panama City 61 77 56 77 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dothan 52 77 50 77 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 54 77 50 77 50 / 10 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 56 79 51 77 50 / 10 0 10 0 0 Cross City 65 80 52 79 52 / 60 10 0 0 0 Apalachicola 60 77 56 76 57 / 10 0 0 0 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ Wednesday for Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN LONG TERM...HARRIGAN AVIATION...HARRIGAN MARINE...HARRIGAN FIRE WEATHER...MOORE HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN

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