Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
587 FXUS62 KTAE 180738 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 338 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak but dry ridge of high pressure will remain anchored over the region today, giving us another hot, dry, and very unusual mid-July day that will be just about free from any rain chances for the second consecutive day. With surface dewpoints mixing out into the upper 50s to the middle 60s and total PWATs of around 1 inch it will make it difficult just to form a small CU field along the sea breeze front in fact! However, big changes are on the way as a very significant pattern shift will bring a large, slow moving, and moisture filled trof our way just in time to spoil the upcoming weekend for those who do not want rain for their outdoor plans. For today, however, the only evidence of this approaching system will be increasing upper level cloudiness from west to east as the day wears on, with some possible mid-level clouds across western portions of the CWA before the day is through. Nevertheless, we still expect enough filtered sunshine for afternoon high temps to reach the middle 90s in most areas away from the coast. .Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]... With a mid/upper level trough moving over the Southeast throughout the short term period, expect rain chances to be on the increase through the weekend. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement with rain chances in the 60 to 70 percent range for Saturday as the leading edge of the disturbance moves into the region. Expect an earlier start to convection, which will limit high temperatures to only around 90 on Saturday. By Sunday, even though the main disturbance will be moving into the Carolinas, the overall East Coast trough will remain in place and with plenty of deep layer moisture available expect good coverage of showers and storms by afternoon. Storm activity on Sunday should be a little more dirunally driven, but still enough convection should take place to keep temperatures in the lower 90s in the afternoon. Overnight lows throughout the short term period will return to typical levels for July. .Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]... The long term period will be fairly active for our CWA as long wave troughing continues its grip on the Eastern CONUS with ridging in the West. This typically features rain chances that are above climatology for our CWA so went with blend of higher HPC guidance with GFS/Euro which yields rain chances near 70 percent each day in the period. With higher chances for rain, temperatures are expected to be below climatology as well with most locations likely reaching AOB 90.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Aviation...
-- Changed Discussion --
[Through 06Z Saturday] VFR conditions will prevail at the Taf sites for most of the period as the dry air mass behind the rare mid-July Cold Front continues to hold on. A brief period of MVFR Vis will be possible at VLD early this morning, but should dissipate very quickly if it does form. Otherwise. upper level clouds will be on the increase, and there may be some chance for a shower or tstm with MVFR Vis or Cigs at DHN and ECP by the very end of the period. However, believe this is still too early to mention in the official aviation fcst.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Marine...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak pressure pattern typical for the summer months will be in place into next week. This will result in light winds and low seas for the next several days.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Fire Weather...
-- Changed Discussion --
Today should be the last mostly dry day on the horizon in quite sometime, as a trof of low pressure moves in from the west and stalls in our vicinity. This will bring a return to elevated rain chances and high relative humidities throughout the coming days.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Hydrology...
-- Changed Discussion --
Rain chances will increase through the weekend. Isolated rainfall totals in excess of 2 to 4 inches are expected across the western half of the forecast area with lesser amounts of 1 to 2 inches through Sunday night. Rainfall amounts should not be widespread enough to cause any river flooding, though some localized issues in flood prone areas are possible.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
-- Changed Discussion --
Tallahassee 95 71 90 72 91 / 0 20 50 30 60 Panama City 88 75 86 74 88 / 0 30 60 30 40 Dothan 93 73 87 72 90 / 0 30 70 30 60 Albany 94 71 86 72 89 / 0 20 60 30 60 Valdosta 97 71 89 71 91 / 0 20 50 30 60 Cross City 92 71 92 72 90 / 0 10 40 30 40 Apalachicola 88 74 86 73 87 / 0 20 50 30 40
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...GOULD SHORT TERM...GODSEY LONG TERM...WOOL AVIATION...GOULD MARINE...GODSEY FIRE WEATHER...GOULD HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.