Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
641 FXUS62 KTAE 241506 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1006 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2015 .Near Term [Through Today]...
-- Changed Discussion --
Regional surface analysis this morning shows a weak, stationary boundary laid across the forecast area from Fitzgerald, GA south to Perry, FL and southwestward out across our coastal waters. A decaying warm frontal boundary intersects the first boundary along the coastline and extends east-northeastward from near Cross City, FL to Jacksonville, FL. Showers today are most active north and west of these boundaries. As a +PV anomaly ejects through the upper level trough over the eastern CONUS today, this boundary will push eastward. Rain over our inland areas will decrease from west to east through the afternoon, but showers will likely continue over our offshore waters into tonight.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Aviation...
-- Changed Discussion --
[Through 12Z Wednesday] Generally IFR-MVFR cigs and vsbys this morning will lift to MVFR-VFR this afternoon as showers exit the area from west to east.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Hydrology...
-- Changed Discussion --
A coastal low pressure system tomorrow is forecast to produce a widespread total of 1.5-2.5" of rain across the forecast area. No flooding is forecast, however, these totals will cause rises along our area rivers and bring several sites along the Kinchafoonee Creek and the Choctawhatchee, Ochlockonee, Aucilla, and Upper Withlacoochee Rivers into action stage. The Withlacoochee River at Valdosta is likely to crest near minor flood stage by the end of the week and could reach a higher and earlier peak if rainfall totals end up being higher than currently forecast.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Prev Discussion [429 AM EST]...
-- Changed Discussion --
.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]... The main focus will be on Wednesday`s system. A vigorous upper level shortwave will allow for an area of low pressure to move along the Gulf coast. Unfortunately, the 00z NAM and GFS actually diverged in their track forecasts tonight with the NAM a northern outlier and the GFS a southern outlier compared to the rest of the guidance suite. If the NAM were to verify, then the warm sector would move inland enough for a risk of severe storms. A track in between the two extremes seems most likely with the warm sector limited to near the coast and offshore. Given the expectation of a strong low level jet and strong deep layer shear, it would not be surprising to see a strong to severe squall line sweep across the coastal waters and near the coast Wednesday afternoon and evening. For most of the land area, expect to see moderate to occasionally heavy stratiform rain with some embedded non-severe thunderstorms possible given some elevated instability. However, given the uncertainty with the low track and the very strong shear values expected, the SPC day 2 outlook places a marginal risk of severe storms across portions of northern Florida and southern Georgia. Expect clearing with dry weather returning on Thursday. .Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]... The upper flow along the Gulf Coast is forecast to return to a zonal configuration pretty quickly behind Wednesday`s system, keeping the bulk of the arctic air confined well north of the area. Should see a warming trend kick in by the weekend as heights begin to rise and high temperatures reach back into the mid to upper 60s. A chance of showers could return by the weekend, but currently do not see any additional significant systems through Tuesday. .Marine... Conditions will remain below headline levels until Wednesday, when winds and seas will increase ahead of a low pressure system moving across the Gulf of Mexico. After this system exits on Thursday, strong high pressure is expected to build over New England with moderate to strong east to northeast winds across the coastal waters this weekend. .Fire Weather... Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected for the next several days, with rain expected through Thursday morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
-- Changed Discussion --
Tallahassee 58 46 55 44 56 / 60 20 100 90 10 Panama City 57 47 56 44 54 / 30 30 100 90 10 Dothan 54 41 46 38 52 / 70 20 100 80 10 Albany 53 41 48 39 51 / 80 20 100 90 10 Valdosta 55 44 55 44 56 / 100 20 100 100 10 Cross City 63 50 64 53 60 / 30 20 70 90 20 Apalachicola 60 50 61 47 57 / 20 30 90 90 10
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...MOORE SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM...DVD AVIATION...MOORE MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...MOORE

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.