Area Forecast Discussion
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381 FXUS62 KTAE 161408 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1008 AM EDT Sat Aug 16 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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The 12Z Tallahassee sounding revealed continued drying in the 850-700mb layer from last evening, and the precipitable water had fallen to just 1.25", which is 66% of normal and about 2 standard deviations below normal. GOES blended total PWAT product indicated that values were below 1.7" (25th percentile value for August at Tallahassee) across the entire area, indicating that the mid-level dry air had essentially advected into the entire forecast area. This is expected to suppress nearly all convective development today, except for perhaps an isolated shower or thunderstorm in the offshore coastal waters or very near the Suwannee River. The previous forecast handled this well, so no notable changes were made. It should be a mostly sunny day with highs in the mid-90s away from the coast, and near 90 at the coast.
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&& .Prev Discussion [645 AM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]... With essentially zonal flow aloft, and no appreciable synoptic forcing, expect the bulk of the shower and thunderstorm activity to originate offshore. The southwesterly convergent regime will force showers inland during the morning and afternoon both Sunday and Monday and will likely disrupt any meaningful sea breeze circulations. On Monday, our northernmost GA and AL counties may get clipped by showers and thunderstorms being forced by a shortwave passing through northern Alabama and Georgia. .Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]... Nearly zonal flow will gradually be replaced by building upper level ridging across the SE U.S. through the entire extended period, while a weak Sfc high pressure system generally remains in place across the northern Gulf of Mexico. This type of synoptic pattern with potential stacked ridging should result in a prolonged period of hot and humid conditions across the entire CWA, with below normal PoPs forced only by the diurnal sea breeze circulation. High temps should at least be in the mid 90s away from the coast, with some upper 90s certainly possible by mid to late week. Overnight lows will mainly be in the very muggy mid to upper 70s. .Aviation... [Through 06Z Sunday] Except for a brief period of light fog (MVFR VIS) at KTLH & KVLD this morning, VFR conditions are expected. Winds will be light west to southwest, picking up a bit out of the southwest this afternoon to near 10 KT at KTLH with the onshore sea breeze. .Marine... Modest southwesterly flow will prevail for the next few days, though seas should remain in the 1 to 2 foot range. Expect showers and thunderstorms each morning. .Fire Weather... Red Flag conditions are not expected for the next several days. The lack of significant, widespread rain the next few days will continue to allow fuels and soil moisture to dry. .Hydrology... Significant rainfall is not expected over the next several days and all area rivers should remain below action stage.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 96 72 92 76 94 / 0 10 40 20 50 Panama City 90 76 89 78 90 / 10 30 40 40 50 Dothan 93 72 93 74 93 / 0 0 40 20 50 Albany 95 71 95 74 92 / 0 0 40 20 50 Valdosta 95 71 92 74 90 / 10 0 20 20 50 Cross City 92 73 93 74 92 / 20 20 30 20 40 Apalachicola 92 77 90 78 90 / 10 30 40 30 50
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...LAMERS SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN LONG TERM...GOULD AVIATION...FOURNIER MARINE...HARRIGAN FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN

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