Area Forecast Discussion
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208 FXUS62 KTAE 141038 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 630 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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The 11 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a quasi-stationary front from the southeast LA coast, through Columbus, GA, to the east coast of NC. Outflow from the numerous storms Saturday evening had flipped the winds across much of our forecast area to the north, but that was not the cold front, and we expect these winds to return to light E-SE flow later this morning. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a narrow ridge along the Gulf Coast, so we don`t expect any further progress of the aforementioned front, and very little (if any) Q-G forcing. However, deep layer moisture remains plentiful, and mesoscale forcing and/or weak convergence near the nearby front will help generate scattered deep moist convection this afternoon. Our PoP is in the 20-50% range, with the highest PoP north of Dothan and Albany (nearest the frontal system), and around the Panama City area (where the CAMs show more favorable sea breeze forcing). Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s. The synoptic environment doesn`t appears favorable for widespread flooding and/or severe storms, though we can`t completely rule out an isolated, marginal incident of either. .Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]... Rain chances will be gradually increasing through the short term period as the "dirty" upper level ridge (with plenty of deep layer moisture still underneath it) continues to weaken over the next couple of days, before being replaced by a slowly steepening trof over the SE U.S. by Tuesday and Wednesday. Lingering PoPs this evening will range from 30% over much of the interior, with a small area of 40%s across N portions of our AL and GA zones. On Monday, as the southerly flow increases over the region, PoPs will rise from 40% south and 30% north in the morning, to 50% south and 60% north by the afternoon, and once again linger well into the evening hours. On Tuesday, as the upper level trof begins to become better established, widespread 60% PoPs (with even a few areas of 70%) are expected across the CWA. This pattern change could result in the potential for more widespread heavy rainfall over the region through mid week, before a significant punch of drier air works into the area from the northwest by the end of the week as mentioned in the long term discussion below. Initially, temps should still average a few degrees above climo, but high temps on Tuesday may need a slight downward adjustment based on the final cloud cover and rainfall chances. .Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Saturday]... Deep moisture will continue to be present across the area with a stalled frontal boundary also in the vicinity. These ingredients point to an unsettled period coming up with an above average chance of rain on Tuesday and Wednesday. Some locally heavy rain is possible given the weak boundary and deep tropical moisture expected to be in place. A drying trend is possible for most of the area with the exception of the southeast big bend near the end of the week as the deepest moisture may get pushed to the south. Daytime highs are expected to be near to slightly below normal through most of the week.
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&& .Aviation...
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[through 12z Monday] Areas of dense fog and low cigs have developed recently across portions of the FL Panhandle, southeast AL, and southwest GA- especially at KDHN. There is a chance that some of this may spread to KABY and KECP over the next few hours, but it appears less likely than in our 06z TAF package. At KDHN, it will be late morning before conditions improve to VFR. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected today and tonight, outside of isolated to scattered TSRA that develop this afternoon and evening. Except for KECP (where the PoP is 50%), the 20-30% PoP is too low for this TAF package. Some NWP guidance indicates the potential for fog/low cigs Monday morning, but confidence is not high enough to include mention of this for now.
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&& .Marine... Winds and seas will remain a bit elevated across the offshore legs today and Monday, as a trough of low pressure (the remnants of a weak tropical disturbance) passes well to the south of the marine area. Thereafter, light winds and low seas are expected over the coastal waters as a weak surface pressure returns to the marine area. && .Fire Weather... Red Flag conditions are not expected through at least mid week. && .Hydrology... Although areas of locally heavy rainfall will be possible through mid-week, at this time it does not appear as though there will be enough time or organization to this precipitation to cause a widespread impact on our area rivers and streams. However, the situation does still bear monitoring, and if the steepening of the upper level trof and subsequent cold frontal passage are slightly slower than expected, the hydrological outlook may need to be re-visited. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 93 72 93 72 91 / 30 30 50 30 60 Panama City 90 77 89 76 88 / 50 30 50 30 60 Dothan 91 71 92 71 91 / 30 30 60 40 60 Albany 91 71 92 72 92 / 40 40 60 40 60 Valdosta 92 71 93 71 92 / 30 30 60 30 60 Cross City 92 71 91 71 91 / 30 30 50 30 60 Apalachicola 89 77 88 77 87 / 30 30 50 30 60 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...FOURNIER SHORT TERM...GOULD LONG TERM...DVD AVIATION...FOURNIER MARINE...GOULD FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER HYDROLOGY...GOULD

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