Area Forecast Discussion
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745 FXUS62 KTAE 211432 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 932 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2015 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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A strong southerly flow is in place, bringing relatively warm, moist air into the region. Highs today will be noticeably warmer in the upper 60s. Clouds will be moving into the western part of the CWA by afternoon, as a cold front approaches from the west. However, any mentionable rain chances should hold off until after sunset.
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&& .Prev Discussion [444 AM EST]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]... Tonight will begin with generally zonal flow aloft across the Southeast, and a large, broad trough covering the northern half of the CONUS. At the surface, high pressure centered over the northwest Atlantic will yield southerly flow across the Tri-State region. A weakening area of low pressure will be present across the lower Mississippi Valley, the result of a departing southern stream anomaly. Through Monday, the northern stream trough will essentially remain confined to the northern CONUS while one more southern stream anomaly will pass through the Southeast in the zonal flow regime. The aforementioned area of surface low pressure will continue to weaken and drift east until Monday when a combination of the passing southern stream anomaly and surface high pressure building south, move the surface trough out of the region. As far as rain is concerned, the southerly flow around the ridge tonight will force a ribbon of isentropic rain within the 295-300K window. This rain will be rather light and should remain confined to the Panhandle (west of the Apalachicola River) and southeast Alabama. As the previously mentioned surface trough drifts into the region on Sunday, rain chances will spread east. The best chance for rain on Sunday will be along and north of a line from Berrien through Bay county. The "heaviest" rain will likely be Sunday night into Monday morning as the second southern stream anomaly moves through the Southeast. This round of rain will mostly be limited to southeast Alabama and south Georgia. Rain chances will taper from west to east across south Georgia on Monday as the system departs to the east. Storm total rainfall amounts shouldn`t exceed a half of an inch. Temperatures will be quite warm on Sunday, with middle and upper 70s across south-central Georgia and the Florida Big Bend. Elsewhere, lower 70s will be more common. On Monday, highs will range from the upper 50s across Alabama and most of Georgia where the most rain is expected, to the lower 70s in the southeast Big Bend. Overnight lows will run around 10 degrees above normal. .Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]... There`s finally starting to be some agreement between the primary global models as to the evolution of the extended range forecast period, though there remains plenty of uncertainty w.r.t. the finer details. We`ll start out with zonal flow continuing across the Southeast. The northern CONUS trough will have split into an essentially cutoff low over the Central Great Basin and the primary northern stream anomaly over the Northeast. The anomaly out west will elongate as it drops into the zonal flow regime across the southern CONUS and gradually weaken through its trek across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley through Wednesday. The remnant shortwave will pass through the Southeast Wednesday night into Thursday morning. With the passage of this system, the Southeast will return to a rather benign zonal pattern to finish the period. Aside from the possibility of some very light rain on Tuesday, forced way up on the 320K surface from a weak southern stream anomaly, the resultant surface pattern and sensible weather will feature cyclogenesis along the western Gulf coast as the primary shortwave moves east. Low-level isentropic ascent over the developing warm front will begin Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with the low moving across the northeast Gulf and north- central Florida Wednesday afternoon and night. At this time it appears as though all rain will come to an end by Thursday morning. Severe weather does not seem likely with this system due to the low track and the meager instability even in the warm sector. With the unsettled pattern through the extended range, expected average temperatures to remain below normal. This means we probably won`t have any really cold nights, but our afternoon temperatures will most likely remain 10 degrees or so below average. .Aviation... [Through 12Z Sunday] VFR conditions will persist through most of this period, although ceilings will gradually lower late in the period. DHN and ECP should see some MVFR ceilings develop tonight with some IFR possible at DHN late in the period. Gusty south- southeast winds are forecast during the late morning and afternoon hours, perhaps as high as 25-30kt. .Marine... Solid Advisory conditions currently ongoing across the Gulf will gradually weaken through the day with seas following around 6 hours behind. Expect Advisory level seas to last into the night tonight. High pressure will build south into the Gulf early next week, increasing seas once again to at least Cautionary levels. A more substantial increase in winds and seas will come mid to late week next week as a strong area of low pressure passes through the northern Gulf. .Fire Weather... Onshore flow will increase humidity levels substantially today compared to recent days with red flag conditions not expected in the near future. .Hydrology... A round of light rain is possible early next week, but totals will be too low to cause significant rises on our area rivers.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 68 51 77 58 67 / 0 10 20 30 20 Panama City 65 59 71 57 63 / 10 20 40 30 20 Dothan 67 56 72 51 56 / 10 30 70 40 30 Albany 66 52 73 52 57 / 10 20 60 40 40 Valdosta 69 51 78 58 65 / 0 10 20 20 30 Cross City 71 49 78 58 73 / 0 10 10 10 20 Apalachicola 65 58 70 59 65 / 10 10 20 30 20
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...RIP CURRENT RISK through late tonight for Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. High Surf Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM- Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM- Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN LONG TERM...HARRIGAN AVIATION...WOOL MARINE...HARRIGAN FIRE WEATHER...WOOL HYDROLOGY...WOOL

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