Area Forecast Discussion
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215 FXUS62 KTAE 141849 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 249 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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The cold front is bisecting the area from west to east. The main squall line has raced out ahead of the front and has crossed just out of our area. Light showers will continue behind the main squall line for a few hours. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 50s for much of the area, upper 50s to around 60 in the eastern FL Big Bend. .Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]... A large upper level low pressure system will cover the eastern third of the country on Wednesday. It will only gradually be absorbed back into the mean longwave trough through Thursday. At the surface, high pressure will nose into the Tri-State region on Wednesday, with the surface ridge overspreading the entire Southeast by Thursday night. No rain and seasonable temperatures are expected. Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s each afternoon, with overnight lows around 50 degrees away from the coast. .Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]... Broad troughing, or nearly zonal flow aloft, will prevail locally through the extended range. At the surface, high pressure will remain intact, with no rain in the forecast. Highs will hold steady in the low 80s, which is near average for this time of year. Lows, will be slightly below normal, in the lower to middle 50s.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Wednesday] Vicinity showers will linger for a few hours, with conditions bouncing between VFR and MVFR-IFR. By 00Z however, VFR conditions will return and prevail through the remainder of the period. Gusty winds are expected today both with the storms and behind them, winds will weaken after sunset.
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&& .Marine...
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Advisory level winds will subside through cautionary levels tonight, before headline conditions are no longer met late tonight. Winds will remain near headline levels through Thursday when the calm center of high pressure moves closer to our Gulf waters. Thereafter, low winds and seas should prevail into next week.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Relative humidity values will dip through the week behind a cold front passage. The forecast at this time is that they will not dip into the lower 30s or upper 20s until Friday by which time the post frontal winds will have already subsided. No red flag conditions are forecast this week.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Several area rivers have shown sharp rises in response to the rain that fell over the past 24-36 hours. However, prior to this rain event river levels were so low that it is unlikely any of our forecast points will reach minor flood stage. In fact, only a few points along the Shoal and Choctawhatchee rivers are forecast to remain in, or reach action stage.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 55 80 50 79 50 / 10 0 0 0 0 Panama City 62 77 56 77 57 / 10 0 0 0 0 Dothan 52 77 50 77 50 / 10 0 0 0 0 Albany 53 77 50 77 50 / 10 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 56 79 51 77 50 / 50 0 10 0 0 Cross City 63 80 52 79 52 / 70 10 0 0 0 Apalachicola 61 77 56 76 57 / 10 0 0 0 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay- Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for Apalachee Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...MOORE SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN LONG TERM...HARRIGAN AVIATION...MOORE MARINE...HARRIGAN FIRE WEATHER...MOORE HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN

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