Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 130111
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
911 PM EDT Fri Sep 12 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Local radar imagery shows thunderstorms ahead of a stationary
boundary to our northwest. Some of this convection may effect our
northern most Alabama and Georgia counties late tonight.
Otherwise, scattered convection is firing along a surface trough
across south-central and southeastern Georgia. These storms have
very little steering flow, so they are very slow moving and
producing moderate rainfall, but with little support to sustain
them, they are dissipating before flooding becomes a concern.
Still, isolated low lying areas with poor drainage that flood
easily, may see some minor flooding tonight. Lows tonight will be
in the low 70s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Sunday] All terminals are forecast to be VFR through
at least 18z tomorrow. The only exception could be VLD/ABY where
VCTS is possible through 03z tonight. There is small chance for
MVFR due to low cigs at VLD/ABY early Saturday morning. A stationary
front drifting southeast will serve as a focus for convection
after 19z with all terminals seeing at least VCTS. DHN and ABY
have a chance of seeing occasional TSRA. Any thunderstorms
near/over terminals could produce periods of MVFR/IFR and gusty
winds.


&&

.Prev Discussion [321 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
Although the upper level pattern will feature an elongated east-
west upper level ridge across the area, a weak surface boundary
will get pushed into the area as a strong surface ridge builds
across the middle part of the country. Deep moisture is expected
to pool along this boundary with an increase in convection likely
for Saturday afternoon, especially across the western portions of
the area. In addition, with precipitable water values rising to
near 2 inches and weak steering flow, some localized heavy
rainfall amounts could occur, again most likely mainly west of a
Tallahassee to Albany line.

Deep moisture will linger across the area on Sunday, but there
appears to be less of a focusing mechanism for convection compared
to Saturday, so PoPs are expected to be more uniform across the
area in the 40-50% range. High temperatures are expected to be
mainly in the lower 90s with lows in the low to mid 70s.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
The main uncertainty for the extended forecast is to what extent
the weak system moving westward into the Gulf will impact our
area. The collaborated NHC/WPC forecast takes the system westward
to a position south of Houston by mid-week and keeps it weak. Deep
moisture will continue to increase across the area with a stalled
frontal boundary also in the vicinity. These ingredients point to
an unsettled period coming up with an above average chance of rain
by mid-week. Some locally heavy rain is possible given the weak
boundary and deep tropical moisture expected to be in place. This
could be further enhanced by the Gulf system depending on its
evolution, but that evolution is much more uncertain. Daytime
highs are expected to be held down in the mid 80s from Tuesday
through most of the week given the expected cloud cover and
increased rain coverage.


.Marine...
A weak pressure gradient is expected to remain in place through
most of the period with winds and sea fairly low. Winds will
increase some offshore on Saturday as a weak low passes well south
of the area.


.Fire Weather...
Relative humidity values will remain above 35 percent through next
week with no red flag conditions expected.


.Hydrology...
Although widespread heavy rainfall is not expected through the
weekend, some localized heavy amounts could occur with deep
moisture in place and a weak frontal boundary sliding south into
the area. The most likely areas to see locally heavy rain on
Saturday will be west of a Tallahassee to Albany line.

Looking ahead into next week, deep tropical moisture is expected
to be in the area along with a weak frontal boundary and the
possibility of a weak low in the Gulf. These ingredients will have
to be monitored closely for the potential of some heavy rain by
mid-week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   73  92  73  92  72 /  20  40  30  40  30
Panama City   77  91  75  90  75 /  10  60  40  40  30
Dothan        72  91  72  90  72 /  20  70  50  50  30
Albany        73  92  72  92  73 /  30  60  50  50  30
Valdosta      71  92  71  92  71 /  30  30  30  40  30
Cross City    71  92  71  91  71 /  10  30  30  40  30
Apalachicola  75  89  75  89  75 /  20  40  30  40  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...DVD






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