Area Forecast Discussion
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489 FXUS62 KTAE 240118 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 918 PM EDT Wed Jul 23 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Just made a few minor tweaks to the current fcst which is essentially well on track. PoPs over the interior ended right bfr 00 UTC as fcst perfectly by the day shift. The only change of any significance was to add in 20% PoPs over the Coastal Waters after 2 AM EDT to account for possible land breeze convection with the SW Flow.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Friday] VFR conditions expected to deteriorate to MVFR with BR development around 09-11Z from west to east at DHN, ABY, TLH, and VLD. IFR cigs may develop at these sites as well, but confidence is lower, so kept coverage scattered with this package. VFR conditions expected to return around 13Z and prevail through the day with winds from the southwest around 8-10kts in the afternoon.
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&& .Prev Discussion [250 PM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]... The large scale period commences aloft with dissipating cutoff low to our west, however remnants become increasingly absorbed by Nrn stream trough Thurs and deepening into full latitude trough over SE states thru the period. At surface, Mid-South cold front drops Swd, albeit with limited moisture, to Srn AL/GA by end of period shunting Ern ridge progressively SEWD into Atlc. All this results in strengthening deep layer WSW flow with PWATs hovering around 1.9 inches. Expect 30-50% POP gradient, S-N on Thurs and W-E on Fri focused across east half of CWA and in aftn. With increased dynamics, steeper lapse rates and higher dew points, strong storms with ample lightning and gusty winds are possible each day and we cant discount isold pulse severe with damaging winds and locally heavy rain especially with seabreeze/boundary clashes. High temps will reach the low to mid 90s, a little higher on Thurs with heat indices from 90 to 103 highest Thursday and east. .Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]... The region will be dominated by a typical summer pattern through Sunday. As a result, expect isolated afternoon/evening rain and thunderstorms. Monday an upper level trough moves in and increases afternoon/evening precip chances. A stationary boundary is expected to linger over the area Tuesday and Wednesday bringing increased rain chances in the Big Bend Region. In addition to the increased rain chance expect abundant cloud cover. It will be slightly cooler and less humid Tuesday and Wednesday...particularly in the Alabama and Georgia counties. .Marine... Winds will generally be from the southwest around 10 KT through this weekend, except for an increase to 10 to 15 KT near the coast during the late afternoon and evening hours from strong daytime heating. Significant wave heights will be mainly 2 ft or less. .Fire Weather... No fire weather concerns. .Hydrology... River flooding will not be a concern with all area rivers below flood stage and high rainfall amounts not expected.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 73 93 74 93 73 / 10 30 20 30 20 Panama City 76 88 77 88 77 / 10 30 20 30 20 Dothan 72 92 73 93 73 / 10 50 20 30 20 Albany 73 93 74 93 73 / 10 50 30 30 20 Valdosta 71 95 73 93 73 / 10 30 20 50 40 Cross City 72 92 72 92 73 / 10 30 20 40 20 Apalachicola 77 88 78 88 78 / 10 30 20 30 20 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...GOULD SHORT TERM...BLOCK LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT AVIATION...MOORE MARINE...BLOCK FIRE WEATHER...BARRY HYDROLOGY...WESTON

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