Area Forecast Discussion
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151 FXUS62 KTAE 150604 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 204 AM EDT Fri Aug 15 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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The weather pattern remains unchanged today from yesterday. We reside in a zonal flow regime on the base of an upper level trough, with a surface front draped across the Tri-State region. Behind the front, unseasonably dry air will preclude any shower and thunderstorm development, while scattered storms are expected ahead of the front. The best chances for storms will be east of a line from Mexico Beach through Tallahassee and Valdosta. Highs will be in the middle 90s behind the front, with lower 90s ahead of it. .Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]... The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement in building an east-west oriented deep layer ridge across the FL Peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico. What`s left of the quasi-stationary front (currently across our forecast area) will drift very slowly to the north and gradually dissipate. Both global models forecast dry, sinking air aloft on Saturday- especially along and north of a line from Panama City to Valdosta (where our forecast PoP is 20% or less in the afternoon & evening hours). It won`t be quite as dry across north FL, and the boundary layer will still be very moist, so scattered storms are expected (30% PoP). Deep layer moisture will begin to gradually increase from southwest to northeast on Sunday, though there will still be some residual warm/dry air aloft. The forecast PoP is 20-30%, though with the weakening front we don`t expect to see as sharp a difference in the moisture/PoP distribution. Highs temperatures will be in the mid 90s inland (around 90 at the coast), and lows will be in the 70s. .Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]... Upper level flow will become zonal for the extended period. Southwest winds will bring moisture from the Gulf and scattered rain chances, typical for this time of year. High temperatures will be in the mid 90s and lows in the mid 70s.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 06Z Saturday] MVFR to IFR visibilities are expected once again this morning at TLH and VLD. Shortly after sunrise, VFR will return to all terminals. There is a relatively low chance of a thunderstorm impacting TLH and VLD this afternoon, with essentially no chance of rain at ECP, DHN, and ABY.
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&& .Marine...
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Winds will generally be west to southwest around 10 KT into early next week, as a high pressure ridge builds across the Florida Peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Seas will be 2 ft or less.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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The Tri-State region will be bisected northeast to southwest for a couple more days by a front dividing dry air to the north and more saturated conditions to the south. However, even in the driest locations relative humidity levels should remain above critical levels precluding any hazardous fire weather conditions.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Through Saturday we expect the heaviest rain around Cross City and Mayo, where 0.50 to 1 inch is likely. Locally heavy rain is possible, which could cause brief, localized flooding of low-lying urban areas. Elsewhere the showers & storms will be too isolated to make a significant dent in our summer dry spell, and area rivers remain well below flood stage.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 92 73 93 73 95 / 30 10 10 10 30 Panama City 89 76 90 77 90 / 10 10 10 10 30 Dothan 92 70 94 73 94 / 0 0 10 10 20 Albany 95 70 96 72 94 / 0 0 10 10 20 Valdosta 92 71 95 71 95 / 30 20 20 20 20 Cross City 88 73 91 72 93 / 40 30 30 20 20 Apalachicola 88 77 90 77 90 / 40 20 20 10 30
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN SHORT TERM...FOURNIER LONG TERM...WESTON AVIATION...HARRIGAN MARINE...FOURNIER FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER

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