Area Forecast Discussion
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427 FXUS62 KTAE 161540 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1040 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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Cold front currently stretches from just west of Albany to just west of Apalachicola. A narrow band of scattered showers is leading the front as it tracks east across the forecast area. This band will continue east through the remainder of the afternoon with the best rain chances from Albany to Tallahassee and points eastward. Highs should still reach the lower to mid 70s ahead of the front, with mid 60s in its wake.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12Z Wednesday] Dense fog at KVLD and KTLH has burned off with VFR conditions at most terminals. A front is crossing the region this morning, with a brief period of MVFR cigs and SHRA possible as it passes. The front should be through KTLH by 18Z and KVLD between 21-00Z. VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals in the wake of the front.
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&& .Prev Discussion [432 AM EST]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]... Dry weather is expected through the short term period behind the front with high pressure the dominant feature. Clearing skies are expected tonight with mostly clear skies lasting through Wednesday night. Clouds are expected to start to increase somewhat on Thursday in association with the next system. Seasonal temperatures are expected. .Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]... The next system of interest is still expected to arrive between the Friday night and Saturday time frame. There are still some disagreements on the strength of this system, although the last couple of ECMWF runs have trended weaker. Nevertheless, measurable rain chances still look fairly good on Saturday, so PoPs continue to creep upward. There may be just enough instability for an isolated thunderstorm or two, mainly over the western and southwestern portions of the area. This system is expected to exit the area with a brief break in the action before another system approaches on Monday or next Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to be mostly near seasonal averages through the period. .Marine... Westerly winds will increase behind a cold frontal passage today with exercise caution conditions west of Apalachicola through the morning hours. Winds will then decrease for Wednesday and Thursday before increasing again on Friday and Saturday as the next low pressure system approaches the area. .Fire Weather... With plenty of low level moisture and scattered showers in the area today, clearly no fire weather concerns are expected. In fact, even the cooler and drier air, which is expected to return for the rest of the week, should have little or no impact as well, with afternoon relative humidities remaining safely above critical thresholds. .Hydrology... No flooding issues are expected over the next several days. A weak system will bring a few showers to the region today. A better chance of rain is expected on Saturday.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 76 40 65 37 68 / 50 0 0 0 0 Panama City 70 46 62 47 65 / 40 0 0 0 0 Dothan 71 38 61 39 64 / 30 0 0 0 10 Albany 73 37 63 35 65 / 50 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 75 39 64 38 66 / 40 10 0 0 0 Cross City 73 42 66 38 67 / 20 10 0 0 0 Apalachicola 72 46 62 45 65 / 50 0 0 0 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...CAMP SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM...DVD AVIATION...CAMP MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...GOULD HYDROLOGY...DVD

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