Area Forecast Discussion
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751
FXUS62 KTAE 180102
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
902 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Very few changes were made to the existing forecast - a dry night
with mostly clear skies, other than perhaps some high cirrus
arriving later in the night. Lows should be below normal for this
time of year, and the low at Tallahassee could actually approach a
record low for the date (July 18th) which is only 65 degrees.
Forecast lows are mainly in the 64-67 degree range except near the
coastline. The air mass remains quite dry with the 00Z Tallahassee
sounding recording a PWAT of just 1.01". The dewpoint at TLH today
actually got down to 55 degrees at 6 PM. Dewpoints that low have
only been observed on 14 hourly observations at TLH in July in the
past 20 years - or just 0.09% of the total.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Saturday] But for a brief period of MVFR VIS
possible around dawn at KVLD, VFR VIS & CIGS will continue into at
least Friday evening. Surface winds will be light and rather
variable (mostly 6 KT or less), except for an onshore sea breeze
near 10 KT at KECP mid to late Friday afternoon.

&&

.Prev Discussion [245 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
During this period, we will see a gradual return to more typical
summer rain chances and modest increases in humidity. However,
Friday will still be a dry day for most of us. The front currently
stalled across the northern Gulf of Mexico will edge northward
allowing some return flow across the central Gulf Coast. Isolate
PoPs are included across our far northwestern zones. We also could
see some isolated convection make it into our South Central GA zones
in an area where the Atlantic and Gulf sea breezes collide. The
reduced convective coverage will allow temps to rise to above normal
levels, mainly mid 90s. By Saturday, return flow will be well
underway and PW will be back to climatological norms, if not above.
PoPs will increase to 30 southeast to 60s northwest. Max temps will
be near normal.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
The long term period will be fairly active for our CWA as long wave
troughing continues its grip on the Eastern CONUS with ridging in
the West. This typically features rain chances that are above
climatology for our CWA so went with blend of higher HPC guidance
with GFS/Euro which yields rain chances near 70 percent each day in
the period. With higher chances for rain, temperatures are expected
to be below climatology as well with most locations likely reaching
AOB 90.


.Marine...
A weak pressure pattern typical for the summer months will be in
place into next week. This will result in light winds and low seas
for the next several days.


.Fire Weather...
Another relatively dry day is expected tomorrow, though RH values
will likely remain above critical levels. Thereafter, moisture
levels will increase to seasonal norms or above, as will rain
chances.


.Hydrology...
Scattered storms will return to the forecast by the weekend, but
widespread heavy rainfall is not expected at this time. While some
storms may result in some localized rises on smaller area creeks and
streams, the main stem river will continue to remain below flood
stages.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   66  95  71  92  71 /   0  10  10  40  30
Panama City   72  90  75  88  74 /   0  10  10  40  30
Dothan        65  92  70  90  71 /   0  10  20  50  30
Albany        67  94  71  91  71 /   0  20  20  50  30
Valdosta      67  96  70  94  70 /   0  20  20  40  30
Cross City    67  93  70  92  71 /   0  10  10  30  20
Apalachicola  71  89  73  88  73 /   0  10  10  30  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL/DOBBS
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






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