Area Forecast Discussion
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138
FXUS62 KTAE 261929
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
229 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
High pressure has moved in behind a departing low. However,
residual low level moisture has become trapped by a strong
inversion. Therefore, cloud cover will likely persist until
midnight for most of the CWA and until early morning for eastern
portions of the CWA. Lows will range from the lower 30s in the
northwest to the upper 30s in the southeast.

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
The dominant weather feature over the next few days will be the
strong and sprawling area of high pressure spreading from the
Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic. Expect to see a modest warmup on
Friday with highs ranging from the mid 50s in the northwest to
the mid 60s in the southeast. Saturday will be trickier as the
surface high reaches the Mid-Atlantic states and wedges down the
lee of the Appalachians. While the southern portions of the area
will likely reach the 60s Saturday afternoon, portions of
southwest and south central Georgia will struggle into the 50s
with cloudy skies and cool northeasterly flow.

Farther south, rain chances will increase over the southeastern
Big Bend as yesterdays front begins to creep back to the north as
a warm front.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
The wedge of high pressure should break down by Sunday afternoon,
allowing for temperatures to return to the 60s area wide. However
scattered showers will be possible as developing return flow rides
up and over the remaining wedge and a weak front approaches from
the west.

Scattered showers will be possible on Monday into Monday night as
well, as the front approaches the forecast area and stalls. A
building ridge over the gulf will keep temperatures on a warming
trend through the first half of the week, with afternoon
temperatures well into the 70s Monday and Tuesday. Another front
is forecast to approach the region by the middle of the week, with
another chance of showers and a few thunderstorms.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Friday] As an area of low pressure moves away from
the area, residual low level moisture is expected to allow for low
clouds to persist through much of the period with MVFR ceilings.
Clouds will likely lift to VFR late this afternoon. Winds will be
light and northerly.

&&

.Marine...
Strong high pressure moving eastward through the midwestern states
will keep the gradient tight and winds elevated through much of
the weekend. Expect to see conditions near or above Small Craft
Advisory levels beginning tonight through early Sunday. Conditions
will improve for Sunday into early next week as the area of high
pressure weakens.

&&

.Fire Weather...
No Fire Weather concerns are expected for the next several days
despite a brief intrusion of significantly drier air on Friday.

&&

.Hydrology...
Most of the area saw 1-2 inches of rain yesterday which has led
to a rise on area rivers. Several rivers will reach action or bank
full stage. The Kinchafoonee Creek at Dawson and the
Withloacoochee River at Valdosta will reach minor flood stage on
Saturday.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   37  61  43  63  50 /  10   0  10  10  30
Panama City   39  59  44  61  50 /   0   0  10  20  20
Dothan        34  56  39  54  41 /  10   0  10  10  20
Albany        35  59  39  51  43 /  10   0  10  10  20
Valdosta      39  61  43  58  48 /  10   0  10  10  30
Cross City    41  64  44  64  52 /  10   0  10  40  30
Apalachicola  42  59  47  62  52 /   0   0  10  20  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday
     for Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON







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