Area Forecast Discussion
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156
FXUS62 KTAE 271100 AAA
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
700 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY]...

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS MORNING, AS PLENTY OF LOW CIGS ARE LINGERING BEHIND THE
RAPIDLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ONCE THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THESE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
BUT NW WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [449 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

A RAPIDLY STEEPENING SHORTWAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING
WILL SWEEP SE THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END FROM EAST
TO WEST OVER THE CWA TODAY. AS THIS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH, GUSTY
NW WINDS ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NW, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 60S OVER SE AL TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE FAR SE FL
BIG BEND. EVEN AS SOME LATE MARCH SUNSHINE BREAKS THROUGH FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS AFTN, TEMPS WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH IF AT ALL, WHICH
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COUPLE OF CHILLY NIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD THIS WEEKEND.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND
IN THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ZONAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WILL STALL OVER THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY. POPS WILL BE AROUND 20
PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.


.MARINE...

BEHIND A COLD FRONT CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND
SEAS UP TO 5 TO 6 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE ON SATURDAY
AND WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH TUESDAY.


.FIRE WEATHER...

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS ON ITS WAY TO THE TRI-STATE AREA AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING AN END
TO THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN MOST AREAS DURING THE MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO HELP LIFT AND ERODE
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS, WITH SUNSHINE GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY, THE DRY AIR
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO ARRIVE FAST ENOUGH FOR ANY RED FLAG CONCERNS,
BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE VERY LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
IN FACT, RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR LONG ENOUGH
DURATIONS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND AND PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER, SINCE
20FT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 15 MPH AND ERCS ARE
UNLIKELY TO RECOVER BACK TO THE REQUIRED VALUE OF 37 ON SATURDAY, A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME, BUT CONDITIONS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED ONCE LATER ERC OBS AND FORECASTS ARE
RELEASED. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ON THE OTHER HAND, ERC VALUES COULD
RECOVER TO HIGH ENOUGH LEVELS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO BE REACHED
OVER PARTS OF THE BIG BEND. THEREFORE, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED LATER THIS WEEKEND.


.HYDROLOGY...

ALL AREA RIVERS REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE ARE NO FLOODING
CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   70  43  65  41  69 /  50   0   0  10   0
PANAMA CITY   67  47  61  46  65 /  30   0   0  10   0
DOTHAN        63  40  60  39  66 /  20   0  10  10   0
ALBANY        65  39  60  39  64 /  30   0   0  10   0
VALDOSTA      71  41  61  39  66 /  50   0   0  10   0
CROSS CITY    74  45  66  42  70 /  70   0  10  10   0
APALACHICOLA  71  46  66  46  68 /  40   0   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON



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