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369
FXUS62 KTAE 141435
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1035 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2013


.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
The forecast was updated earlier to increase PoPs across the far
southeast big bend where convection was already ongoing. The 12z
KTAE sounding shows the presence of steep mid level lapse rates
with MLCAPE values already exceeding 3000 j/kg. There is a little
more mid to upper level flow today compared to yesterday, as well
as mid-level dry air. Thus, a few of the storms could become
strong to marginally severe this afternoon with gusty winds and
perhaps some hail, primarily across the southeast big bend.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
The large scale longwave pattern remains amplified highlighted by
ridging over Cntrl Conus with high centered over LA/AR border, and a
trough along Ern most states into Wrn Atlc with axis just off Ern
seaboard. Locally, this translates to dry NW/N steering flow. At
surface, low off mid-Atlc with weakening front Swd then Wwd along N
FL/AL coast. During the rest of the overnight period, dissipating
front will move into Gulf of Mex then beyond our coastal waters by
sunrise Sat. In its wake...high over great lakes builds swd into
Nrn Gulf region. Depending on actual position of front and
residual moisture from rain, patchy to areas of fog expected
mainly SE Big Bend.

During the rest of the weekend, the center of high will move into
LWR MS Valley on Sat then to the NRN Gulf overnight pushing the Ern
trough further into Atlc with a more zonal flow developing across
most of Ern Conus except for weak troughing over SE region with
Gulf high shunted farther in Gulf of Mex thru Sun. At surface,
high moves ewd exiting into Atlc Sat night with axis swwd and back
towards N FL/S GA. Local flow veers to east then offshore by that
time. So expect deep layer ridging leading to a drier airmass with
AOB wdly sct late aftn into eve precip with the focus south of
ridge axis, namely south of I-10. Also this will lead to lower
humidities and heat indices. Expect lows each night in the mid 60s
to low 70s. Under NLY steering flow and lack of clouds, expect
inland highs in the mid 90s on Sat and low to mid 90s on Sun.

&&

.LONG TERM [Monday through Thursday]...
The upper pattern is forecast to remain relatively flat and weak
through the first half of next week. With a relatively dry airmass
in place, this will keep rain chances on the low end of scattered,
through Tuesday. By Wednesday and Thursday, a trough is forecast
to amplify along the eastern seaboard, which may improve rain
chances. Temperatures should remain near seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 12z Saturday] Low cigs around KDHN should lift and scatter
out by this afternoon as drier air moves in from the north.
Elsewhere, conditions should remain primarily VFR with scattered
afternoon convection occasionally affecting areas around KECP, KTLH,
and KVLD.


&&

.MARINE...
Exercise caution conditions are occurring across the waters east of
Apalachicola this morning and will continue through the mid-
afternoon hours. Winds will weaken and veer to onshore on Saturday
through the weekend. Generally light winds and low seas are then
expected into early next week as high pressure establishes itself
over the eastern Gulf.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Although locally heavy rain will fall over portions of our AL and
Nrn tier GA counties rest of overnight into this morning. river
gauges are expected to remain below flood stage for the next several
days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   93  72  93  70  92 / 40  20  20  10  20
Panama City   89  77  88  75  87 / 30  10  20  10  20
Dothan        94  70  94  72  93 / 10   0  10   0  20
Albany        93  69  93  69  93 / 20   0  10   0  10
Valdosta      93  69  92  67  92 / 40  20  10  10  10
Cross City    89  71  92  69  92 / 80  30  20  10  20
Apalachicola  87  76  87  75  86 / 40  20  20  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

Near Term/Aviation/Marine...DVD
Short Term/Hydrology...Block
Long Term...Camp
Fire Weather...Barry