Area Forecast Discussion
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892
FXUS62 KTAE 160001
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
801 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
A clear and cool night is in store with surface high pressure
building into the area. Overnight lows in the upper 40s to around
50 are expected for most areas with slightly milder conditions
along the coast.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00z Friday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
period. Near calm winds tonight will become west-northwest around
10 knots during the mid to late morning hours on Thursday.

&&

.Prev Discussion [347 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

Deep cut-off low over the Ohio Valley will slowly migrate
northeastward through Thursday keeping deep northwesterly flow in
place across the forecast area. At the surface, high pressure over
the western Gulf today will progress eastward through Friday
bringing a more westerly wind flow. With a very dry airmass in
place, no precip is expected. Temperatures will be close to normal
with highs in the upper 70s for Thursday and lower 80s for Friday.
Lows around 50 Thursday night and lower 50s Friday night.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

A deep trough will remain over eastern CONUS bringing strong
northwesterly flow aloft. At the sfc, no significant features are
expected to develop. This means drier cooler air through the
extended period with no rain expected. A low is expected to develop
over the Gulf and linger there for several days. The coastal
waters could see some cloud cover from this low, but rain is
unlikely. Highs will hold steady in the upper 70s/low 80s, which
is near average for this time of year. Lows, will be slightly
below normal, in the lower to middle 50s.


.Marine...

West-northwest flow near exercise caution levels will continue
today as high pressure builds over the western Gulf. Conditions
will improve tonight and Thursday with light winds and minimal
seas continuing through the weekend. Exercise caution conditions
may briefly occur Thursday afternoon.


.Fire Weather...

Despite a drier air mass across the region through the weekend, RH
values are not expected to fall to critical levels. RH values on
Friday may approach red flag thresholds in the western part of our
area, but winds should have decreased sufficiently such that red
flag conditions are not expected.


.Hydrology...

While we did get a lot of rain yesterday, the rivers were already
very low. There are no flooding concerns at this time.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   50  79  48  83  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
Panama City   59  78  56  81  62 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        49  77  49  81  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
Albany        50  77  49  82  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      50  77  50  80  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    53  79  50  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  58  77  55  79  60 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening
     for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...MCDERMOTT
LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...MCDERMOTT
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...WESTON






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