Area Forecast Discussion
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314 FXUS62 KTAE 200829 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 329 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2015 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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A couple of weak shortwaves will pass quickly across the area today embedded in the zonal flow aloft. A lack of strong forcing and deep moisture will limited rain chances. However, a few showers will be possible this afternoon over the far western portion of the forecast area. Otherwise, expect mild temperatures this afternoon, with highs reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s. .Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]... The zonal flow will back to the WSW by Thursday as the long wave trough over the desert southwest deepens. Locally, weak high pressure will be in place at the surface. Cyclogenesis will begin near the south Texas coast on Thursday with a widespread area of rain developing from overrunning and spreading east through the Gulf coastal states. Some of this activity may reach our western zones by late Thursday. Daytime temps will be mild Wednesday with highs in the upper 60s to around 70 and a little cooler Thursday with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Lows will be in the 40s both nights. .Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]... There continue to be some differences among the models concerning the development and track of the low in the Gulf of Mexico. The latest EURO tracks the low furthest north and comes ashore in the Florida panhandle near Panama City Friday afternoon. The 00z GFS is further south and crosses the Florida coast in the southeast Big Bend Friday evening. Both solutions bring widespread rains to the region mainly during the Thursday night to Friday night time frame. The Euro would bring a larger portion of our CWA in the warm sector with increasing chances for thunderstorms and potential for heavier rain. Both models show the surface low deepening further as it parallels along or just off the southeastern U.S seaboard on Saturday and racing off to the northeast. The upper trough will swing through the local region Saturday with skies gradually clearing as a much cooler and drier airmass filters in through the remainder of the period.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12Z Wednesday] VFR conditions will continue through the TAF cycle.
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&& .Marine...
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Winds and seas will be low through Wednesday night. A low pressure system will track across the northern Gulf of Mexico increasing northeast winds and seas to cautionary levels on Thursday. Winds and seas are forecast to reach advisory levels as the low tracks into the local waters Thursday night and Friday. Conditions across the marine area will gradually improve over the weekend.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Low level moisture will begin to increase today and remain sufficient through the week to preclude any red flag conditions.
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&& .Hydrology...
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All area rivers are below flood stage and staying steady or falling. Our next chance for rainfall will be Thursday. QPF values are expected to be an inch or less at this time, which will not cause flooding.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 71 48 70 45 68 / 0 10 0 0 10 Panama City 68 51 67 48 64 / 20 10 0 0 20 Dothan 68 46 68 44 64 / 0 10 0 0 20 Albany 68 46 69 42 64 / 0 10 0 0 10 Valdosta 70 49 71 46 68 / 0 10 0 0 10 Cross City 71 48 70 48 70 / 0 10 0 0 10 Apalachicola 67 52 67 51 65 / 10 10 0 0 20
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...CAMP SHORT TERM...BARRY LONG TERM...BARRY AVIATION...CAMP MARINE...BARRY FIRE WEATHER...CAMP HYDROLOGY...MOORE/MERRIFIELD

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