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Area Forecast Discussion
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226
FXUS62 KTAE 140812
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
412 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2013

.SHORT TERM [Today]...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front across northern Alabama and north Georgia early this
morning will continue to drop south and into the Florida Panhandle
by this afternoon. Although convection out ahead of the front is
currently diminishing, we expect storms to increase in coverage
later this morning and afternoon with daytime heating. A much
drier airmass will be filtering into the region on northerly flow in
the wake of the front. PoPs will be tapered from nil extreme
northern zones to mid range chance (40%) for our southern tier
Georgia and Florida zones. Max temps today will be in the lower to
mid 90s inland and upper 80s along the coast.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...
-- Changed Discussion --
The large scale longwave pattern remains amplified highlighted by
ridging over Cntrl Conus with high centered over LA/AR border, and a
trough along Ern most states into Wrn Atlc with axis just off Ern
seaboard. Locally, this translates to dry NW/N steering flow. At
surface, low off mid-Atlc with weakening front Swd then Wwd along N
FL/AL coast. During the rest of the overnight period, dissipating
front will move into Gulf of Mex then beyond our coastal waters by
sunrise Sat. In its wake...high over great lakes builds swd into
Nrn Gulf region. Depending on actual position of front and
residual moisture from rain, patchy to areas of fog expected
mainly SE Big Bend.

During the rest of the weekend, the center of high will move into
LWR MS Valley on Sat then to the NRN Gulf overnight pushing the Ern
trough further into Atlc with a more zonal flow developing across
most of Ern Conus except for weak troughing over SE region with
Gulf high shunted farther in Gulf of Mex thru Sun. At surface,
high moves ewd exiting into Atlc Sat night with axis swwd and back
towards N FL/S GA. Local flow veers to east then offshore by that
time. So expect deep layer ridging leading to a drier airmass with
AOB wdly sct late aftn into eve precip with the focus south of
ridge axis, namely south of I-10. Also this will lead to lower
humidities and heat indices. Expect lows each night in the mid 60s
to low 70s. Under NLY steering flow and lack of clouds, expect
inland highs in the mid 90s on Sat and low to mid 90s on Sun.-- End Changed Discussion --

.LONG TERM [Sunday Night through Thursday]...
-- Changed Discussion --The upper pattern is forecast to remain relatively flat and weak
through the first half of next week. With a relatively dry airmass
in place, this will keep rain chances on the low end of scattered,
through Tuesday. By Wednesday and Thursday, a trough is forecast
to amplify along the eastern seaboard, which may improve rain
chances. Temperatures should remain near seasonal normals.-- End Changed Discussion --

.AVIATION...-- Changed Discussion --[Through 12z Saturday]
A diminishing line of convection ahead of a cold front will continue
to move to the south this morning. The storms should impact ABY and
DHN between 06z and 09z possibly resulting in MVFR to IFR
conditions. The remaining TAF sites could see convection before
sunrise but the best chance will come later this morning and
afternoon as additional storms develop along and ahead of the front.
The cold front should be south of DHN and ABY by 12z with VFR
conditions for the remainder of the TAF cycle.-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --Winds near exercise caution levels are possible overnight into early
morning ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will stall
very near the coast later today, with winds weakening through
the weekend. Generally light winds and low seas are then expected
into early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --Although locally heavy rain will fall over portions of our AL and
Nrn tier GA counties rest of overnight into this morning. river
gauges are expected to remain below flood stage for the next several
days.-- End Changed Discussion --

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --Tallahassee 93 72 93 70 92 / 40 20 20 10 20
Panama City 89 77 88 75 87 / 40 10 20 10 20
Dothan 94 70 94 72 93 / 10 0 10 0 20
Albany 93 69 93 69 93 / 10 0 10 0 10
Valdosta 93 69 92 67 92 / 40 20 10 10 10
Cross City 89 71 92 69 92 / 40 30 20 10 20
Apalachicola 87 76 87 75 86 / 30 20 20 10 20-- End Changed Discussion --

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Block
LONG TERM...Camp
AVIATION...Block
MARINE...Block
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Block

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