Area Forecast Discussion
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034
FXUS62 KTAE 151947
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
347 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A noticeably cooler, drier airmass is in place in the wake of a cold
front. The 12Z TAE sounding had an 850mb temperature of 8C, which is
beyond 2 standard deviations below normal for us for October. The
sounding reflected the drier air as well, with a PWAT of 0.45" (down
from 2.14" at 12Z yesterday!), which is below the 25th percentile
for October. With so much dry air aloft, skies will stay mostly
clear today. High temperatures will range from the mid 70s in our
northwestern zones to upper 80s in our southeastern zones. Winds
will pick up a bit early in the afternoon to around 10 MPH, with
gusts of 15-20 MPH possible. Winds will weaken overnight and
overnight temperatures will dip into the upper 40s to around 50.


.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

Deep cut-off low over the Ohio Valley will slowly migrate
northeastward through Thursday keeping deep northwesterly flow in
place across the forecast area. At the surface, high pressure over
the western Gulf today will progress eastward through Friday
bringing a more westerly wind flow. With a very dry airmass in
place, no precip is expected. Temperatures will be close to normal
with highs in the upper 70s for Thursday and lower 80s for Friday.
Lows around 50 Thursday night and lower 50s Friday night.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

A deep trough will remain over eastern CONUS bringing strong
northwesterly flow aloft. At the sfc, no significant features are
expected to develop. This means drier cooler air through the
extended period with no rain expected. A low is expected to develop
over the Gulf and linger there for several days. The coastal
waters could see some cloud cover from this low, but rain is
unlikely. Highs will hold steady in the upper 70s/low 80s, which
is near average for this time of year. Lows, will be slightly
below normal, in the lower to middle 50s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Thursday]

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with winds from
the west. Winds will generally be around 10 knots today with gusts
to around 15 knots possible at Nrn terminals. Although winds will
fall to around 5 knots briefly overnight, they will increase again
tomorrow after sunrise.

&&

.Marine...

West-northwest flow near exercise caution levels will continue
today as high pressure builds over the western Gulf. Conditions
will improve tonight and Thursday with light winds and minimal
seas continuing through the weekend. Exercise caution conditions
may briefly occur Thursday afternoon.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Despite a drier air mass across the region through the weekend, RH
values are not expected to fall to critical levels. RH values on
Friday may approach red flag thresholds in the western part of our
area, but winds should have decreased sufficiently such that red
flag conditions are not expected.

&&

.Hydrology...

While we did get a lot of rain yesterday, the rivers were already
very low. There are no flooding concerns at this time.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   50  79  48  83  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
Panama City   59  78  56  81  62 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        49  77  49  81  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
Albany        50  77  49  82  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      50  77  50  80  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    53  79  50  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  58  77  55  79  60 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening
     for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...MCDERMOTT
LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...MCDERMOTT
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...WESTON







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