Area Forecast Discussion
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928
FXUS62 KTAE 280017
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
817 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
High pressure stacked over the southeastern U.S. and dry air aloft
will mean for clear skies and light to calm winds tonight. These
conditions will allow for temperatures to dip below normal values
for this time of year- into the mid 60s in south-central Georgia,
upper 60s elsewhere.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Friday] VFR conditions are forecast to prevail
through the forecast period at area terminals. The only exception
could be a brief period of MVFR visibility at VLD before sunrise.
Winds will be light.

&&

.Prev Discussion [254 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

We will see one more day of dry conditions on Thursday. Then, deep
layer moisture will be pulled northward from the GOMEX in advance of
a shortwave moving out of the plains and into the Mississippi Valley
on Friday. PoPs will be tapered highest south (50%) to lowest north
(20%) Friday afternoon and evening. Max temperatures will be in the
mid 90s both days with heat indices possibly elevating into the 100
to 105 range for the lower 2/3rd of our CWA on Friday.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

The shortwave over the Midwest will gradually dampen out as it
lifts across the Great Lakes region Saturday. This along with
additional shortwave energy translating eastward from the western
states will effectively set up nearly zonal flow across most of
the CONUS by early next week. At the surface, the east to west
ridge axis will extend across or just north of our CWA with moist
onshore flow continuing. With a return of deep layer moisture
along with daytime heating and added instability, look for near to
above seasonal PoPs each day. Despite the increase in rain
chances, max temps will generally be above climo in the lower to
mid 90s.


.Marine...

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and seas 3 feet or
less are expected to prevail through Labor Day.


.Fire Weather...

A dry airmass will remain in place through Thursday before the
low-levels begin to moisten once again. Humidity values will bottom
out in the mid to upper 20s Thursday afternoon away from the coast.
Conditions will approach Red Flag conditions across the region.
However, with very light winds in place across Alabama, sufficient
soil moisture in Georgia, and limited durations of critical RH in
Florida, no Red Flag products are needed at this time.


.Hydrology...

There are no hydrological concerns at the present time with little
to rain expected for the couple of days. Scattered convection is
expected to return for Friday into the weekend, but flooding is
not expected at this time.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   68  95  70  95  74 /   0   0  10  40  40
Panama City   75  92  75  91  78 /  10   0  10  50  50
Dothan        67  95  68  95  74 /   0   0   0  30  30
Albany        65  96  66  96  73 /   0   0   0  20  20
Valdosta      64  95  67  95  73 /   0   0   0  30  30
Cross City    67  94  69  94  74 /   0  10  20  50  50
Apalachicola  73  91  74  90  79 /  10  10  20  50  50

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...DVD






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