Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 150907

507 AM EDT Tue Apr 15 2014

...Isolated Strong to Severe Storms and Flooding Still Possible
this Morning with Sharply Colder Air Forecast to Arrive for

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A cold front will sweep across the forecast today. Ahead of the
front, a band of convection has been organizing itself in a more
linear fashion over recently. The overall severe threat has
diminished somewhat and the earlier watch allowed to expire. We have
not received any wind damage reports. However, an isolated strong to
severe storm cannot be ruled out this morning. Of more immediate
concern is flash flooding potential. Dual pol estimates show 4-6
inches of rain fell across our FL Panhandle zones along and south of
I-10. It appears that training echoes are largely east of this area
now, but another couple of inches of rain will be possible over
portions of the Florida Big Bend and adjacent South GA. The flash
flood watch has been maintained for these areas. Surf has been
building along the FL Panhandle coast in moderately strong onshore
flow. Although we do expect a wind shift behind the cold front,
northwest winds will continue to increase surf along the west facing
beaches which will contribute to a high risk of rip currents. Colder
air will surge into the region behind the front and most areas will
see afternoon temperatures several degrees cooler than this morning
with 50s expected across our northern zones.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
The unseasonably cold surge of air will continue through the
overnight hours. Guidance is in remarkably good agreement in showing
most of our inland zones dropping into the 30s. In fact, our far
northwestern zones could see a couple of hours of temperatures
around freezing. Wet soils and 10-kt winds may keep temps from
getting quite that low, but considering the late date, a freeze
watch seemed prudent. A decision on whether to upgrade to a warning
will be made this afternoon. Easterly flow will moderate
temperatures somewhat for Wednesday night and Thursday, although
they will remain below normal.

.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
With the first low pressure system long gone by the beginning of the
extended period, we should at least experience a 2 day break in the
unsettled weather on Wed. and Thu. with an initial shot of
unseasonably cold air moderating back towards climo levels. By the
end of the week and through next weekend, however, the fcst will
once again become quite difficult as the conditions are leaning
heavily towards yet another very unsettled period. While the details
on timing, potential rainfall totals, and the possibility of any
severe weather have been very inconsistent from run to run in both
the GFS and ECMWF, the chances of another significant rainfall event
during this time frame are clearly increasing. This is definitely
not welcomed news for our area rivers and streams, many of which
remain elevated from previous rainfall events, and will be primed
yet again by the initial rainfall event early in this week.
Furthermore, until a more significant change in the synoptic pattern
becomes evident across the CONUS, these anomalous digging shortwaves
and potential heavy rainfall producers will continue to threaten the


[Through 06Z Wednesday] A large area of rain and thunderstorms
will affect the region through the early afternoon hours. Storms
could produce heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning with
brief visibility reductions to LIFR. Ceilings and visibility will
gradually improve from west to east through the afternoon as the
rain ends. Winds will increase as the front moves through, with
wind gusts around 25 knots this afternoon across the region.


A cold front will sweep across the waters during the first half of
the day. Onshore winds will be at cautionary levels ahead of the
boundary, but shift to offshore and quickly increase to small craft
advisory levels after frontal passage. Highest seas will occur
across the offshore legs late in the day and further east during the
evening. Wind gusts are expected to stay just below gale force
during this time. After a brief dip in wind speeds Wednesday
afternoon, strong easterly flow will increase to advisory levels
once again from Wednesday night through Thursday night. Low pressure
will then pass south of the waters and shift winds to the north for
late in the week.


.Fire Weather...
Widespread wetting rain this morning should limit fire weather
concerns over the next 24 hours and increase fuel moisture. A drier
air mass is expected on Wednesday, but fuel moisture levels should
continue to be high enough to preclude red flag criteria from being
met. Moisture will then increase once again for later in the week.


A band of heavy rain set up across the Florida Panhandle overnight.
Gages on the Choctawhatchee and Chipola are already showing a
reversal in earlier recessions. Sharper rises on smaller tributaries
may continue this trend, once this observed rainfall gets into the
models. Look for some official forecasts to be revised upwards. This
may also eventually happen on the Apalachicola and Ochlockonee

For real-time detailed river stage monitoring refer to this page:


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   70  38  70  48  74 /  80   0   0  10  30
Panama City   65  42  69  53  73 /  70   0   0  10  30
Dothan        62  35  67  45  71 /  70   0   0  10  20
Albany        67  37  68  44  73 /  80   0   0  10  20
Valdosta      70  39  69  48  74 /  80   0   0  10  20
Cross City    73  42  71  50  77 /  80  10   0  20  30
Apalachicola  68  43  68  54  72 /  80   0   0  10  30


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Flash Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon for
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-Gadsden-
     Inland Bay-Inland Gulf-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-South Walton-

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     Freeze Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for
     Inland Walton.

GA...Flash Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for Baker-

AL...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 AM EDT
     Wednesday for Apalachee Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee
     River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.



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