Area Forecast Discussion
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389
FXUS62 KTAE 200705
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
305 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Deep layer ridging will begin to build in from the west as the low
pressure system moves further off the southeast U.S. coast. The
persistent low level clouds may continue to linger for most of the
day. However, with rising heights and some breaks in the cloud cover
we expect max temps to be on the order of about 5 degrees warmer
than what we saw on Saturday. Highs will mostly be around 70 to the
lower 70s.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

The forecast 500 mb height pattern over the Southeast will be one of
change to begin the work week, with ridging tonight & Monday,
followed by a positive tilt trough on Tuesday. Fair weather and
partly cloudy skies are expected through Monday night, with
temperatures near climatology. Rain chances will increase on
Tuesday, mainly in South AL & GA with the approach of a cold front
from the northwest. The GFS and ECMWF indicate that this system will
be a much more typical April system (compared to the much stronger,
wetter systems we`ve seen so far this normally dry month)- with
modest PoP (ranging from 20 to 40%) and low QPF (less than 0.25 in).
Any threat of severe storms with this system appears very low due to
weak forcing and winds aloft. Temperatures will continue near climo
values on Tuesday.


.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Saturday]...

The next frontal system looks like it will move through the area
on Tuesday. However, it looks weak and fast moving with most of
the deep layer moisture affecting the northern half of the area
with a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. The pattern
appears to remain fairly progressive through the period, and
another weak system may affect the area on Saturday. The remainder
of the period looks dry with near to slightly above average
temperatures.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Monday]..IFR/MVFR cigs will continue to prevail at
least through daybreak. Thereafter, the low level cloudiness will
gradually begin to scatter out from southwest to northeast through
the afternoon and early evening as the deep layer low pressure
system off the northeast Florida coast moves further away. Winds
will be light to moderate from the northeast.

&&

.Marine...

Moderate north winds this morning will gradually weaken and veer to
the east through Monday as the eastern U.S. ridge becomes centered
closer to our forecast area. Winds will become westerly ahead of an
approaching cold front on Tuesday, but will remain rather
light.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Red Flag conditions are not expected through the upcoming work week.

&&

.Hydrology...

The several recent heavy rain events have caused nearly all of our
local rivers to be above normal stage/flow, with the most recent
rain event on Friday driving several rivers well above flood stage.
Some of the more notable river forecasts are: The Choctawhatchee at
Bruce is expected to reach major flood stage Sunday evening. Points
along the following rivers are forecast to reach moderate flood
stage: St. Mark`s, Ochlockonee, Chipola, and Shoal rivers.
Fortunately, for now, our medium range NWP models are not
forecasting any heavy rain events for the upcoming work week.

The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   71  52  78  52  81 /   0   0   0   0  20
Panama City   71  56  75  60  75 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        72  52  78  57  79 /   0   0   0   0  40
Albany        70  50  78  54  80 /   0   0   0   0  30
Valdosta      70  50  77  52  81 /   0   0   0   0  20
Cross City    74  52  79  52  82 /   0   0   0   0  10
Apalachicola  69  56  73  59  75 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER/WESTON







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