Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 282001

301 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
High pressure over New England is bringing northeasterly flow at the
sfc. Strong southerly flow at 850mb is pulling in abundant moisture
over the region. Cool air at the sfc and warm, moist air at 850mb is
creating an overrunning situation since a strong inversion is in
place preventing mixing. Therefore, low stratus clouds will persist
through tonight. Intermittent rain showers and drizzle is likely
particularly over the eastern half of the CWA and the coastal
waters. Thick cloud cover tonight will keep lows in the mid 40s to
lower 50s.

.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
So the big question is whether the cool wedge in place across the
region will begin to breakdown on Sunday as indicated in some of
the models. The GFS is very aggressive with eroding the wedge as
high pressure over the Mid Atlantic weakens and then shifts out
into the Western Atlantic. The NAM keeps the wedge in place across
Southern Georgia with some erosion of the cool air across the
Florida zones. Typically, models tend to be a bit too quick to
erode the inversion, so will lean the forecast for Sunday closer
to the NAM solution and show another cool and cloudy day across
the area, with perhaps only some late day improvement in the
Florida counties.

By Monday, southerly flow becomes more established at the surface
with the mid level pattern shifting to a ridge building across
the Western Gulf. A weak impulse will pass to the north of the
area allowing only for a slight chance of showers across our
northern areas. Though mostly cloudy skies are expected, the
building mid level ridge and southerly flow will help temperatures
to finally break into the 70s across much of the area.

.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
The first portion of the long term period will feature a warm
stretch of weather through Wednesday with the mid level ridge
shifting to the Florida Peninsula. By Thursday, a cold front will
move into the region bringing a chance of rain and a return to
cool and cloudy days possibly persisting through Friday. Beyond
that time, the models differ on whether the surface frontal
boundary will dissipate across the area, allowing for cool but
sunny skies next weekend, or remain in place, waiting for the next
southern stream impulse to deliver more rain.


[Through 18Z Sunday] Low stratus clouds have enveloped the area
today. Ceilings will be MVFR this afternoon decreasing to IFR by
midnight. LIFR conditions are likely in the early morning hours.
Very low ceilings will persist until mid to late morning. Rain
showers or drizzle is possible, particularly at TLH and VLD. Winds
will be northeasterly around 10 knots.


Borderline advisory conditions will continue through tonight
before quickly diminishing on Sunday morning as high pressure
weakens across the Mid Atlantic. Generally light winds and low
seas are expected through mid week. By late Wednesday, onshore
flow will increase ahead of an approaching front and then quickly
shift offshore by Thursday behind a cold front. Advisory
conditions are likely behind this cold front Thursday afternoon.


.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days. However, very low dispersion indices are expected
through at least Monday. In fact, dispersion indices tonight may be
higher than the maximum dispersions tomorrow. This is a result of
weakening transport winds, low ceilings, and relatively low mixing


Area streamflows remain above normal. The Ochlockonee and
Withlacoochee Rivers are now in action stage at each of the
forecast points. Minor flooding is possible for the Withlacoochee
River at Valdosta early tomorrow.

No significant rainfall is expected for the next few days, so no
additional river flooding is anticipated at this time.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   49  62  54  75  56 /  40  10  10  10  10
Panama City   50  65  55  68  58 /  20  10  10  10  10
Dothan        44  60  51  71  56 /  20  10  10  20  10
Albany        44  53  49  70  56 /  30  20  10  20  10
Valdosta      48  58  53  75  57 /  40  20  10  10  10
Cross City    53  71  56  76  57 /  40  10  10  10  10
Apalachicola  54  65  57  68  59 /  40  10  10  10  10


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.



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