Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 260139

939 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

With a complex system of boundaries lingering in the area, the
showers and storms have continued to persist a little bit longer
each successive evening. Made some slight adjustments to the 00 to
03 UTC PoPs where the focus of the convection has shifted to the
FL Panhandle, with isolated showers and storms lingering across
the region elsewhere. Cut these back to 20% area wide after 03
UTC, and left the earlier fcst 06 to 12 UTC PoPs (generally 20%
for the coastal waters and N FL) as is. Also over the marine area,
did raise winds and seas just a bit as the pressure gradient has
tightened slightly over the nearshore waters.



[Through 00Z Sunday] There is a possibility of brief and patchy
fog with MVFR vsbys after 09z at all sites. This may be accompanied
by IFR cigs at ECP, TLH and VLD. All sites return to VFR shortly
after daybreak with scattered convection developing in the
afternoon. Went with VCTS at all but ABY as the cold front may
slip to the south before convection develops.


.Prev Discussion [237 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
The persistent weakness that has been in place across the Eastern
CONUS for the last few days will be replaced by a mid level ridge
building into the region. This will result in slightly lower rain
chances and warmer afternoon temperatures through the weekend.
Highs by Sunday will be in the mid 90s with a few locations
possibly reaching the upper 90s. Heat indices Sunday afternoon
will likely be in the 100 to 105 degree range.

.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
Model guidance is in reasonably good agreement that the pattern
across the Eastern CONUS will amplify considerably at the start of
the period as a large trough moves through the Ohio Valley to the
Mid Atlantic States. For several runs now, the models have all
indicated the surface cold front making it through most if not all
of our forecast area by Tuesday. Thus, expect a couple of days of
below normal temps with little or no rain chances. The bulk of the
colder air should remain confined in the Tennessee Valley and
areas to the north though Wednesday and Thursday morning lows will
drop into the 60s across Srn Alabama/Georgia.

By Thursday, the pattern stalls or even retrogrades slightly with
the 500 mb trough axis aligned from the Southern Appalachians
through our forecast area. As deep layer moisture begins to
increase on Thursday, rain chances will increase. Afternoon
temperatures will still remain below normal through this portion
of the long term period due to expected cloud cover, though
overnight lows will return to seasonal norms.

Southwesterly flow will continue over the marine area through the
weekend. On Monday, westerly flow will increase to cautionary
levels ahead of an approaching cold front. This boundary will move
through the marine area on Tuesday with light offshore winds
expected in its wake.

.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not expected over the next several days,
although dispersion values will be high this afternoon and Saturday
across most inland areas.

Afternoon sea breeze thunderstorms are expected, however heavy rain
will be localized and should not have any impact on area rivers.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   73  94  76  94  76 /  30  30  10  20  10
Panama City   76  91  78  91  79 /  20  30  10  20  10
Dothan        73  96  75  95  76 /  30  20  10  10  10
Albany        74  96  75  95  76 /  30  20  10  20  10
Valdosta      72  95  73  97  75 /  30  30  10  20  10
Cross City    72  92  74  93  74 /  30  30  10  20  10
Apalachicola  76  90  78  90  79 /  20  30  10  20  10


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...




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