Area Forecast Discussion
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553
FXUS62 KTAE 171914
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
314 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
A few light showers are popping up across Southwest Georgia.
Dewpoints are near 70 for most of the area and will decrease to
the mid 60s tonight as dry air continues to push south. Rain
chances are low tonight with PoPs 10% or less. Lows tonight will
be cooler than the past few nights and will range from 66 at
Dothan and Albany to 72 near the coast.

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
Drier air will continue to move into the region on Thursday. This
will yield another mainly dry day across the region with
temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90.

By Friday, an upper low will begin to cut off across NE Florida.
As a weak surface reflection develops beneath this feature, the
gradient will tighten between this low and high pressure across
the Mid Atlantic. As low level easterly flow strengthens across
the Western Atlantic and into our region, low level moisture will
increase leading to a period of stratus across the eastern 2/3rds
of the forecast area. Most of the model guidance this cycle has
responded with 40 to 60 percent pops across the eastern counties.
For now, 60 percent seems a bit high, but will trend the forecast
pops for Friday and into Friday night upward. Due to extensive
cloud cover, temperatures on Friday will be cooler, generally in
the mid 80s.

.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
The long term period begins with the upper low off the Florida
east coast being pulled northward ahead of a deepening eastern
CONUS trough. Drier conditions will return by Sunday afternoon
ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. With the main upper
level forcing transitioning from the Ohio Valley to New England
Mon-Tue, it continues to appear that the next cold front will
stall near or just north of the forecast area on Tuesday.
Thereafter, with the boundary in place and low level flow shifting
to easterly, a period of moist and unsettled conditions will
likely return.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Thursday]
VFR conditions with light winds are expected at all the terminals
through the rest of the period. MVFR visibility is possible at VLD
between 9-14Z.

&&

.Marine...
Generally light offshore flow will continue into Friday before
shifting to easterly as high pressure builds down the east coast.
Moderate winds of 10 to 15 knots will prevail through the weekend
before decreasing on Monday as the pressure gradient relaxes.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Despite the gradual influx of significantly drier air into the
region, which will peak on Thursday afternoon, relative humidities
and other fire weather parameters are not expected to approach Red
Flag levels through the period.

&&

.Hydrology...
While rainfall yesterday was not sufficiently widespread to result
in any significant rises on area rivers, localized heavy rainfall
amounts did result in some notable rises on the smaller creeks and
streams across the Florida Panhandle. With generally light
rainfall amounts expected through the weekend, streamflows will be
in recession for the next few days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  92  68  90  68 /  10   0  10  40  20
Panama City   71  90  72  88  72 /  10  10  10  20  20
Dothan        66  89  67  89  67 /  10   0  10  20  10
Albany        66  90  68  89  67 /  10  10  10  40  20
Valdosta      67  91  68  88  67 /  10  10  10  50  30
Cross City    69  93  70  84  68 /  10   0  10  50  20
Apalachicola  73  88  73  85  72 /  10  10  10  40  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY




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