Area Forecast Discussion
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761 FXUS62 KTAE 240929 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 429 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2015 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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The unsettled zonal pattern aloft will continue for one more day. Within the steady westerly flow, a low-level PV anomaly from convection in west Texas yesterday is advecting over the Tri-State region this morning. As a result, light to moderate rainfall is being generated in the 300-305K window, or between 7-11kft. Though the low-level anomaly has steadily weakened in it`s eastward trek, it has been interacting recently with a surface trough extending down the southern Appalachians, through the Suwannee Valley. This explains the recent uptick in rainfall intensity. With cool high pressure wedging down the eastern Seaboard and advancing from the west, this trough will likely remain in place to start the day, focusing moderate rainfall across Alabama and Georgia, with lighter rain across north Florida. Through today, a strong PV anomaly will dive into the Great Lakes region and amplify the eastern CONUS trough. This will in turn force a zonally elongated area of PV emanating from the cutoff low across the Southwest, into the Southeast. This will strengthen the aforementioned surface trough, and force it into the western Atlantic while forcing the wedge to retreat north. What this means for the sensible weather locally is that rain will quickly come to an end from west to east starting as early as mid morning across southeast Alabama, clearing our Georgia counties by late afternoon. With the widespread area of rain and thick cloud cover, high temperatures will hold in the lower to middle 50s across Alabama and Georgia, with low 60s expected across north Florida. .Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]... The main focus will be on Wednesday`s system. A vigorous upper level shortwave will allow for an area of low pressure to move along the Gulf coast. Unfortunately, the 00z NAM and GFS actually diverged in their track forecasts tonight with the NAM a northern outlier and the GFS a southern outlier compared to the rest of the guidance suite. If the NAM were to verify, then the warm sector would move inland enough for a risk of severe storms. A track in between the two extremes seems most likely with the warm sector limited to near the coast and offshore. Given the expectation of a strong low level jet and strong deep layer shear, it would not be surprising to see a strong to severe squall line sweep across the coastal waters and near the coast Wednesday afternoon and evening. For most of the land area, expect to see moderate to occasionally heavy stratiform rain with some embedded non-severe thunderstorms possible given some elevated instability. However, given the uncertainty with the low track and the very strong shear values expected, the SPC day 2 outlook places a marginal risk of severe storms across portions of northern Florida and southern Georgia. Expect clearing with dry weather returning on Thursday. .Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]... The upper flow along the Gulf Coast is forecast to return to a zonal configuration pretty quickly behind Wednesday`s system, keeping the bulk of the arctic air confined well north of the area. Should see a warming trend kick in by the weekend as heights begin to rise and high temperatures reach back into the mid to upper 60s. A chance of showers could return by the weekend, but currently do not see any additional significant systems through Tuesday.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12z Wednesday] A mix of MVFR ceilings and visibilities will continue through the morning hours. Then, there is increasing confidence that MVFR ceilings will lift into the VFR range, and possibly scatter altogether by late this afternoon. MVFR ceilings will spread in from the south late tonight, though just how far inland it will reach is uncertain at this time.
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&& .Marine...
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Conditions will remain below headline levels until Wednesday, when winds and seas will increase ahead of a low pressure system moving across the Gulf of Mexico. After this system exits on Thursday, strong high pressure is expected to build over New England with moderate to strong east to northeast winds across the coastal waters this weekend.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected for the next several days, with rain expected through Thursday morning.
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&& .Hydrology...
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An areawide moderate to heavy rain event is still expected on Wednesday. Total rainfall is now expected to be in the 1.5-2.5 inch range with isolated higher totals possible. This will cause rises on area rivers and may bring a few of our sites back up to action stage. At this time, flooding is not expected, although if widespread rainfall amounts were to increase above 3 inches, then the Kinchafoonee Creek as well as the Ochlockonee, Aucilla, and Upper Withlacoochee Rivers could come close to minor flood stage.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 58 46 55 44 56 / 60 20 100 90 10 Panama City 57 47 56 44 54 / 30 30 100 90 10 Dothan 54 41 46 38 52 / 50 20 100 80 10 Albany 53 41 48 39 51 / 80 20 100 90 10 Valdosta 55 44 55 44 56 / 90 20 100 100 10 Cross City 63 50 64 53 60 / 50 20 70 90 20 Apalachicola 60 50 61 47 57 / 40 30 90 90 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM...DVD AVIATION...HARRIGAN MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...DVD

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