Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 281858
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
258 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014
.Near Term [Through Today]...
Isolated showers continue mainly beyond 20 miles offshore showing
little movement. Overnight we will see an increase in convection
across the coastal waters as tropical moisture surges northward on
the east side of a tropical wave heading toward Texas. Some of this
activity may reach the coastal areas before daybreak. Otherwise, no
rain is expected. Lows will range from the lower to mid 70s along
the immediate coast to the mid 60s to around 70 elsewhere.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
A weak tropical wave is forecast to lift north across the Gulf of
Mexico on Friday, pushing well inland by late Saturday. With a
ridge building aloft over the region through the weekend, the best
lift associated with the wave will likely be west of the forecast
area. However, expect to see deep layer moisture increase from
south to north across the area during the day on Friday, with
higher rain chances primarily over the southern half of the
area. The deep moisture will remain in place through Saturday,
with good chance to likely PoPs in the forecast once again.
Temperatures will vary from north to south on Friday, with higher
max temps across Georgia/Alabama where PoPs will be lower (lower
90s vs. mid 90s). With more widespread coverage on Saturday, high
temps should only reach the lower 90s everywhere.
.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
Medium range guidance is all in good agreement that deep layer
ridging will dominate over the southeastern states through much
of next week. Without a source of deep moisture in place, PoPs
will remain below climo, with temperatures continuing to run above
[Through 18Z Friday] A brief period of MVFR VIS is possible with
fog at VLD around sunrise. Showers and thunderstorms will be
spreading inland from the Gulf mainly after daybreak. With the
exception of ECP, the convection should reach the TAF sites after
Winds will turn to the southeast tonight and then south on Friday
as a weak tropical wave moves northward across the Gulf of Mexico.
The onshore flow, which should remain below 15 knots, will
continue into early next week.
Increasing moisture with higher relative humidity values will
return beginning Friday. No fire weather at least through the
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday and
Saturday. Some locally heavy rainfall amounts are possible, but
widespread heavy rain does not look likely. There are no flooding
concerns at this time since river levels are already very low due
to a drier than average summer.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 68 93 74 92 74 / 10 50 30 50 30
Panama City 75 91 77 89 77 / 10 60 40 50 30
Dothan 68 95 74 92 73 / 0 30 20 60 30
Albany 66 96 73 93 74 / 0 20 20 60 40
Valdosta 66 94 72 93 72 / 0 40 20 50 30
Cross City 70 92 73 92 72 / 10 50 40 50 20
Apalachicola 73 89 76 89 76 / 10 60 40 40 20