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834
FXUS62 KTAE 171816
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
216 PM EDT Fri May 17 2013

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A disturbance will pass through the Tennessee Valley this evening
taking the bulk of the mid level cloudiness with it. Our region
remains on the western edge of a ridge of high pressure across the
Western Atlantic. This pattern will place our region in a favorable
set up for another round of fog overnight. While the most favored
area appears to be along the Florida Panhandle and into Southeastern
Alabama, some potential for fog is possible across Southwestern
Georgia as well. Temperatures overnight will be a little on the cool
side for mid May with lows generally in the lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Saturday through Monday]...

The 500 mb trough axis (currently over western TN) will be over our
forecast area Saturday afternoon, then east of our area by Sunday
morning. Any vertical motion/deep layer moisture associated with
this feature appears rather limited, and the dynamical and
statistical NWP guidance aren`t very "bullish" on PoP or QPF. The
00 UTC Convection Allowing Model (CAM) runs also showed very
little in the way of deep moist convection for Saturday, so our
PoP over the weekend will be low (10-30%...with the highest PoP
during the afternoon hours in our northern zones). Temperatures
will be a few degrees above average- generally around 90 deg,
except for the beaches where the highs will be in the lower 80s
because of the cooler water.

&&

.LONG TERM [Monday night through Friday]...

The 500mb ridge over the Southeast U.S. early in the work week will
transition to a weak trough by late week. The height falls over our
forecast area will be modest so only a slight increase in PoP is
expected later in the week. Until then, the GFS forecasts more deep
layer moisture (hence QPF) than the ECMWF for our region.
Climatologically it`s still a bit early for widespread mesoscale-
induced convection, so an average of the two solutions will get us
close to our climatological PoP (around 20%), with a diurnal
cycle. High temperatures will be at or a few degrees above
average, with lows near average (in the 60s).

&&

.Aviation [Through 18 UTC Saturday]...

VFR conditions will persist through the early evening, with
scattered clouds across the region. However, later this evening,
areas of fog will develop as surface winds become calm, especially
over the Florida Panhandle after 06Z. Where the fog develops, LIFR
conditions are expected. The best chance of fog is at ECP, but TLH
has a decent chance of fog as well.  LIFR conditions can`t be ruled
out at DHN, ABY, and VLD, but the chance of fog is much lower at
these terminals. Where fog does not occur, VFR conditions will
persist through the night. After 13Z tomorrow, any remaining fog
should dissipate and all stations will return to VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds and seas will remain low for the next several days, but for
brief increases (to 10 to 15 KT) in winds and chop near the coast
during the afternoon, due to the sea breeze circulation
enhancement.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Relative humidity levels will remain above critical thresholds for
the next several days. Therefore, Red Flag conditions are not
anticipated.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Area rivers and streams will likely remain well below flood stage
for the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   61  88  64  88  66 /  0  10  10  10  10
Panama City   66  83  69  83  70 /  0  10  10  10  10
Dothan        65  88  67  89  69 / 10  20  20  10  10
Albany        65  89  67  90  68 / 10  20  20  20  20
Valdosta      63  88  63  88  65 /  0  10  20  20  20
Cross City    63  88  62  88  65 /  0  10  10  20  10
Apalachicola  64  81  67  81  69 /  0  10   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Fournier
LONG TERM...Fournier
AVIATION...Godsey/Lahr
MARINE...Fournier
FIRE WEATHER...Godsey
HYDROLOGY...Fournier