Area Forecast Discussion
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770
FXUS62 KTAE 142054
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
354 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Deep ridging will persist into tonight with dry weather, clear
skies, and light winds. We expect another strong low-level inversion
tonight with radiational cooling. This could create some patchy fog,
similar to earlier this morning. Low temperatures between 33 and 37
away from the coast will also likely lead to some patchy frost.


.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

Middle and upper level ridging will be pushed east out of the Tri-
State region tomorrow as a large +PV anomaly moves out of the
Central Plains into the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valleys. The
bulk of the forcing associated with the anomaly will pass well to
our north, however some +PVA will be possible locally as a piece
of the parent anomaly advects eastward. With plenty of deep layer
dry air, this will do nothing more than spread a few high clouds
overhead through the afternoon.

Monday night and Tuesday, the cold front associated with the main
anomaly will pass through the Tri-State region. Though with dry
air already spreading back in behind the leading upper-level
anomaly, and no deep layer forcing, the surface front and low-
level moisture will be the only means of generating any
precipitation across the area. Thus, expect only shallow, light
showers along the immediate front. These showers may also be
scattered in nature so only 30% PoPs are being advertised at this
time.

With the moist return flow ahead of the front, expect both daytime
and overnight temperatures to be a few degrees above normal
through Tuesday.

.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

Nearly zonal flow aloft, and surface high pressure will keep us
dry and yield near seasonal temperatures to finish the week. Over
the weekend, another shortwave will pass just northwest of us and
bring another weakening frontal system and a chance for showers to
the Tri-State region.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Monday]

VFR conditions with clear skies and light winds are expected to
persist. We may see a brief period of MVFR VIS in light fog around
daybreak Monday at ECP, DHN, and ABY - similar to this morning.

&&

.Marine...

Light winds and low seas will prevail through Monday. Monday night
through Tuesday, an uptick to cautionary level winds will be
possible behind a cold front. Though the headline conditions will
likely not spread east of Apalachicola. Winds and seas will then
subside once again to finish the week.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Fair weather will continue through Monday. Low mixing heights and
light winds will continue to keep the daytime dispersion values
unusually low on Monday. A cold front will move quickly east
across the region Tuesday afternoon, bringing scattered showers
with low rainfall totals.

&&

.Hydrology...

Over the next week or so nearly dry conditions will prevail. A
couple of frontal systems may bring some light to moderate rain to
the region, though week-long rainfall amounts should stay below a
quarter of an inch for most spots, and almost certainly below a
half inch region-wide. Essentially no response is expected across
area rivers.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   35  70  46  73  43 /   0   0   0  30  10
Panama City   45  65  57  70  48 /   0   0  20  30  10
Dothan        36  69  51  69  41 /   0   0  30  30   0
Albany        33  68  46  70  41 /   0   0  20  30   0
Valdosta      34  68  43  73  44 /   0   0   0  20  10
Cross City    35  70  43  73  47 /   0   0   0  20  10
Apalachicola  43  65  55  71  50 /   0   0   0  30  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN






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