Area Forecast Discussion
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776 FXUS62 KTAE 230139 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 939 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Very few changes were made to the forecast for tonight, as the inherited forecast looks to be on track. Convective activity has diminished and lingering mid-high level cloud cover is dissipating. Therefore, the overall forecast is for mostly clear skies and lows in the mid-70s, slightly warmer near the coast and in larger cities. The existing Heat Advisory for tomorrow was not modified either.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00z Sunday] Isolated convection has diminished for the night, and VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. There is a low chance for convection again for Saturday afternoon, but the chance appears too low to include in the TAFs at this time.
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&& .Prev Discussion [347 PM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]... Deep layer high pressure will remain centered over the Deep South through the weekend. As a shortwave moves off the Mid-Atlantic coastline, the upper ridge will propagate eastward and build a surface ridge down the U.S. east coast. This will force a front into the Tri-State region late Sunday afternoon into Monday. High temperatures on Saturday will likely be just as warm as today, if not warmer. Widespread 100 degree readings should be expected, with heat indices around 108 degrees for most locations. The highest heat index values will likely be concentrated across north Florida, nearer to the Gulf moisture source and away from the drier air aloft that will likely get mixed down across south Georgia and parts of southeast Alabama. A heat advisory will remain in place across the entire region but should be marginal across south Georgia. Isolated to scattered storms can be expected along the Big Bend sea breeze fronts on Saturday afternoon. More widespread rainfall is expected on Sunday associated with the passing front, though it will most likely arrive much later in the day. Expect our northeastern GA counties to get in on the showers and thunderstorms by mid- afternoon, possibly not reaching the Tallahassee area until late Sunday evening. .Long Term [Monday Through Friday]... The aforementioned front will finish its passage through our region by Monday evening bringing with it drier air and more seasonable afternoon high temperatures. By mid to late week, scattered sea breeze storms should be expected once again. .Marine... Sub-headline level westerly/northwesterly flow will veer easterly and increase to cautionary levels by Monday morning. Headline conditions should last through mid-week under the influence of nocturnal wind surges. .Fire Weather... Relative humidity values will remain above red flag criteria through the period. .Hydrology... Widely scattered showers and storms can be expected through most of the weekend. On Sunday, a front will pass through the region from northeast to southwest bringing with it a good chance for rain for most locations across the Tri-State region. However, rainfall amounts will be insignificant and all area rivers will remain below action stage.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 76 101 77 100 77 / 0 30 20 40 50 Panama City 80 95 80 96 79 / 10 30 10 20 40 Dothan 75 100 76 99 75 / 0 10 10 20 50 Albany 75 101 76 99 75 / 0 10 20 60 40 Valdosta 75 101 75 98 74 / 0 30 20 60 40 Cross City 76 98 77 98 74 / 0 30 20 50 50 Apalachicola 79 95 79 95 80 / 10 30 20 30 50
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Saturday for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson- Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay- Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson- Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson- Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton-Washington. GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for Baker-Ben Hill- Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty- Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell- Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth. AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for Coffee-Dale- Geneva-Henry-Houston. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...LAMERS SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN LONG TERM...HARRIGAN AVIATION...DVD MARINE...HARRIGAN FIRE WEATHER...MOORE HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN

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