Area Forecast Discussion
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251 FXUS62 KTAE 111848 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 248 PM EDT Fri Apr 11 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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A weak shortwave is passing by the region this afternoon in the otherwise zonal flow aloft. This is helping to enhance the cu field as well as generate plenty of cirrus. Skies should clear overnight as the shortwave exits to the east. Otherwise, the weather will be dry overnight with lows dropping into lower to mid 50s. With the gradual increase in low level moisture, may see some patchy fog late. However, dense fog is not expected. .Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]... A surface ridge of high pressure will remain in place through the weekend and keep conditions mild and pleasant ahead of the next weather system arriving early next week /see extended discussion below/. Light southeast winds will begin influx of higher RH by Sunday which could support patchy fog both Saturday and Sunday mornings around the region. This will also result in overnight lows warming a bit through the weekend. Afternoon highs are expected to top out in the lower to mid 80s away from the immediate beaches with overnight lows in the lower 50s Sat morning and around 60 to start the day Sunday. Sea breeze circulations should become well established each afternoon given the cool shelf waters and land temps in the lower 80s, keeping the beaches a bit cooler. Rain chances are expected to remain slim to none until perhaps late Sunday night into Monday. .Long Term [Monday Through Friday]... Guidance is in general agreement with a trough developing over the central portion of the country early next week. However, there are still timing/strength difference in the handling of the two main shortwaves that will be responsible for generating the trough. The GFS is a little weaker and keeps the best instability and shear out of phase through Tuesday, resulting in a lesser severe threat. The 00z ECMWF was a little more bullish on the potential for strong to severe storms. Regardless of the severe threat, it does appear that another round of significant rainfall will impact the region on Monday and Tuesday. Thereafter, the pattern is forecast to become a bit less progressive, with a ridge building off the east coast and surface high pressure nosing down the eastern seaboard. This will result in a more easterly to northeasterly flow pattern, and the potential for a few showers to move back into the region late in the work week.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Saturday] Broken deck has developed this afternoon around 5kft. This should persist through the afternoon before dissipating early in the evening. Some brief MVFR visibility is possible once again Saturday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail through the forecast period.
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&& .Marine...
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Benign conditions will be the norm to start the weekend as high pressure remains in place. Late Sunday into Monday winds and waves will begin increasing ahead of our next weather system expected to bring increasing winds and seas, along with a good chance of showers/thunderstorms early next week.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Low level moisture will continue to slowly increase through the weekend, with RH values remaining above critical levels. Transport winds are forecast to increase by Sunday, with dispersion values rising above 75 for much of the region.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Modest rises are still occurring across portions of the lower Choctawhatchee River, Apalachicola River, Flint River, Ochlockonee River, and Steinhatchee Rivers. The next chance of rainfall is on Monday into Tuesday. The system currently appears progressive enough to prevent excessive rainfall, but rainfall amounts may be enough to temporarily halt some of the river falls. The most up to date, specific river forecast information can be found on the AHPS page at http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 53 82 56 83 60 / 0 0 0 0 10 Panama City 58 76 62 77 64 / 0 0 0 0 10 Dothan 53 81 57 81 60 / 0 0 0 0 10 Albany 54 82 55 82 60 / 0 0 0 0 10 Valdosta 55 85 55 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 10 Cross City 56 83 55 82 59 / 0 0 0 0 10 Apalachicola 58 77 61 76 64 / 0 0 0 0 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...CAMP SHORT TERM...EVANS LONG TERM...CAMP AVIATION...CAMP MARINE...EVANS FIRE WEATHER...CAMP HYDROLOGY...EVANS

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