Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
389 FXUS62 KTAE 200705 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 305 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
-- Changed Discussion --
Deep layer ridging will begin to build in from the west as the low pressure system moves further off the southeast U.S. coast. The persistent low level clouds may continue to linger for most of the day. However, with rising heights and some breaks in the cloud cover we expect max temps to be on the order of about 5 degrees warmer than what we saw on Saturday. Highs will mostly be around 70 to the lower 70s. .Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]... The forecast 500 mb height pattern over the Southeast will be one of change to begin the work week, with ridging tonight & Monday, followed by a positive tilt trough on Tuesday. Fair weather and partly cloudy skies are expected through Monday night, with temperatures near climatology. Rain chances will increase on Tuesday, mainly in South AL & GA with the approach of a cold front from the northwest. The GFS and ECMWF indicate that this system will be a much more typical April system (compared to the much stronger, wetter systems we`ve seen so far this normally dry month)- with modest PoP (ranging from 20 to 40%) and low QPF (less than 0.25 in). Any threat of severe storms with this system appears very low due to weak forcing and winds aloft. Temperatures will continue near climo values on Tuesday. .Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Saturday]... The next frontal system looks like it will move through the area on Tuesday. However, it looks weak and fast moving with most of the deep layer moisture affecting the northern half of the area with a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. The pattern appears to remain fairly progressive through the period, and another weak system may affect the area on Saturday. The remainder of the period looks dry with near to slightly above average temperatures.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Aviation...
-- Changed Discussion --
[Through 06Z Monday]..IFR/MVFR cigs will continue to prevail at least through daybreak. Thereafter, the low level cloudiness will gradually begin to scatter out from southwest to northeast through the afternoon and early evening as the deep layer low pressure system off the northeast Florida coast moves further away. Winds will be light to moderate from the northeast.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Marine...
-- Changed Discussion --
Moderate north winds this morning will gradually weaken and veer to the east through Monday as the eastern U.S. ridge becomes centered closer to our forecast area. Winds will become westerly ahead of an approaching cold front on Tuesday, but will remain rather light.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Fire Weather...
-- Changed Discussion --
Red Flag conditions are not expected through the upcoming work week.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Hydrology...
-- Changed Discussion --
The several recent heavy rain events have caused nearly all of our local rivers to be above normal stage/flow, with the most recent rain event on Friday driving several rivers well above flood stage. Some of the more notable river forecasts are: The Choctawhatchee at Bruce is expected to reach major flood stage Sunday evening. Points along the following rivers are forecast to reach moderate flood stage: St. Mark`s, Ochlockonee, Chipola, and Shoal rivers. Fortunately, for now, our medium range NWP models are not forecasting any heavy rain events for the upcoming work week. The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found on our AHPS page (below). http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
-- Changed Discussion --
Tallahassee 71 52 78 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 20 Panama City 71 56 75 60 75 / 0 0 0 0 10 Dothan 72 52 78 57 79 / 0 0 0 0 40 Albany 70 50 78 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 30 Valdosta 70 50 77 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 20 Cross City 74 52 79 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 10 Apalachicola 69 56 73 59 75 / 0 0 0 0 10
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...BARRY SHORT TERM...FOURNIER LONG TERM...DVD AVIATION...BARRY MARINE...FOURNIER FIRE WEATHER...BARRY HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER/WESTON

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.