Area Forecast Discussion
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471 FXUS62 KTAE 162049 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 349 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2014 ...Slight Risk of Severe Storms Late Tonight and Monday... ...Record Cold Temperatures Expected This Week... .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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After another fairly chilly start across the CWA this morning, afternoon temps have actually recovered fairly well, especially where the low clouds have broken up and lifted across much of the Florida Big Bend. Locations like Tallahassee, which were supposed to top out in the lower 70s are now headed into the upper 70s, while areas that have remained more covered in clouds have held in the upper 60s. Lows tonight should be much milder than recent nights (although for just a very brief period), and are expected to range from the mid to upper 50s to the lower 60s as cloud cover will be rapidly on the increase out ahead of the next cold front. PoPs will also be on the increase from W to E by late tonight, and if we are able to attain sufficient instability, the possibility for a severe storm or two cannot be ruled out across parts of the FL Panhandle and adjacent coastal waters towards Sunrise Monday morning, so added Isolated T+ to the grids from 09 to 12 UTC in this area. .Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]... Showers and thunderstorms spread across the forecast area from west to east Monday morning ahead of the approaching cold front. Guidance continues to indicate a rapid recovery to the low-level airmass, with dewpoints reaching the upper 60s over the southern half of the area. These dewpoints will help to support surface- based CAPE approaching 1000j/kg during the morning and early afternoon hours ahead of the front. With deep-layer shear aoa 50 knots and 0-1km shear around 30 knots, expect to see a few strong to possibly severe cells develop either just ahead of, or embedded within the main line of showers and storms. Isolated tornadoes and damaging straight-line winds appear to be the primary threats, with the area highlighted in the Slight Risk area of the SPC Day 2 Outlook. The front should move into the western zones shortly after 12z, reach the Tallahassee area by 18z, and be exiting the southeastern Big Bend by late in the afternoon. Very strong cold air advection will commence immediately following the frontal passage, with temperatures falling for much of the day over the western half of the forecast area. Roughly the northwestern half of the CWA will likely fall below freezing by sunrise on Tuesday, and a Freeze Watch has been issued for these counties. With the expected winds, may see Wind Chill reading briefly fall below 20 degrees in southeast Alabama. With the continuing cold air advection on Wednesday, temperatures will struggle into the 40s, with only the immediate coast and southeastern Big Bend having a shot at getting above 50 degrees. The coldest night will be Tuesday night as the surface high settles in over central/south Georgia, creating ideal radiational cooling conditions. A widespread hard freeze is likely with low temperatures reaching the lower 20 away from the immediated coast. There may even be a few upper teens in SE Alabama and the inland Florida Panhandle. This will likely be record breaking cold for the date. .Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]... A slow and gradual warming trend will begin on Wednesday. However, highs will still only reach the lower 50s by afternoon, and another solid freeze is expected Wednesday night. Highs through the remainder of the week should make it into the 60s, but even this will be a few degrees below normal. More substantial warming will likely have to wait until late in the weekend ahead of the next significant front and chance of rain.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Monday] VFR to MVFR level conditions should hold for the daylight hours today, but MVFR level cigs should begin to re- develop once again shortly after sunset. After 06 UTC tonight, showers and storms may begin to approach from either the northwest along the front or out of the southwest ahead of the front. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will impact all terminals Monday with gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Winds will become NW with the frontal passage.
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&& .Marine...
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Conditions over the coastal waters will deteriorate tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. Onshore winds will reach Small Craft Advisory conditions late tonight, with winds becoming offshore during the day behind the front. Frequent gusts to Gale Force will be possible over the offshore legs Monday night, with Small Craft Advisory conditions elsewhere. Winds and seas will finally diminish Tuesday night as high pressure builds into the area.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Conditions will be very wet and humid with wet flags posted for Monday, before much colder and drier air moves in for Tuesday and Wednesday. Depending on how cold and dry it ultimately gets (providing the cold air does not cancel out the dry air), Red Flag conditions could be a distinct possibility by the middle of next week.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Rainfall totals associated with the approaching cold front are forecast to remain generally below 1 inch. These amounts may lead to minor rises on area rivers and streams, but have little overall impact.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 59 74 33 49 22 / 40 90 10 0 0 Panama City 63 71 34 50 30 / 70 100 10 0 0 Dothan 57 67 27 44 23 / 70 100 10 0 0 Albany 57 70 28 47 22 / 50 100 10 0 0 Valdosta 58 73 33 49 23 / 30 90 50 0 0 Cross City 60 74 40 52 23 / 20 90 50 0 0 Apalachicola 65 73 37 51 29 / 50 90 10 0 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for Calhoun-Central Walton-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Walton- Jackson-South Walton-Washington. GA...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for Baker-Ben Hill-Calhoun-Clay-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Irwin- Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Tift- Turner-Worth. AL...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Wednesday for Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM. Gale Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning for Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 4 PM EST Monday for Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday for Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...GOULD SHORT TERM...CAMP LONG TERM...CAMP AVIATION...GOULD MARINE...CAMP FIRE WEATHER...GOULD HYDROLOGY...CAMP

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