Area Forecast Discussion
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673 FXUS62 KTAE 231631 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1131 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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Conditions have temporarily become quiet across much of the CWA late this morning, so did lower PoPs across eastern portions of the region through 18Z. Still watching the developing squall line to our west very closely, and if the Sfc based instability becomes sufficient (which is still expected to occur), the shear still appears more than sufficient to support strong to severe storms this afternoon.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Monday] A squall line of strong thunderstorms will move across the area from west to east this afternoon and early this evening. The line will extend from KDHN-KECP 20Z-21Z... to KABY-KTLH 22Z-00Z... to KVLD 00Z-03Z. Conditions will remain IFR to MVFR with heavy rain and strong gusty surface winds up to 50KT with the squall line. Strong southeast to south surface winds with gusts to 25kt-30kt will precede the squall line.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Widespread rainfall totals of 1-3 inches have occurred over most of the area overnight and through the morning hours. Heavy rain with a squall line this afternoon and evening will exit the area by midnight, with additional amounts of .5 to 1 inch likely. Scattered light rain will continue overnight and through Monday. Due to the fast storm motion expected through this evening, flooding issues are not expected, although some rises will be noted on area streams and rivers by mid week.
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&& .Prev Discussion [333 AM EST]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]... The true synoptic cold front is expected to quickly translate east from the Mississippi River Valley to about 87W longitude (Alabama) overnight as the surface cyclone rapidly deepens in the Great Lakes. Although daytime thunderstorms are expected to reduce the instability across the area, numerical models indicate some lingering weak instability in advance of the cold front through the night, and some isolated to scattered convection redeveloping, especially after 06Z as low-mid level forcing increases once again. Some convection-allowing models based on the NAM show some vigorous storms, but we believe this is because the most recent NAM is overestimating available instability. Some of the showers and storms may continue into Monday over the southeast half of our area, ahead of the advancing front. The cold front will begin to stall just southeast of our forecast area Monday Night as the broad, high-amplitude trough over the central CONUS maintains deep-layer southwesterly flow over our region during that time frame. Some showers will be possible just behind the surface cold front over the southeast part of our area. A strong shortwave rounding the base of the trough from the southern Plains to Louisiana on Tuesday should increase QG forcing sufficiently to allow rain to expand back into the forecast area. Tuesday should be a cloudy, breezy, and cool day with rain. .Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]... Rain will continue into Tuesday Night and early Wednesday as the ejecting shortwave facilitates surface cyclogenesis along the stalled front in the vicinity of the Florida peninsula (just SE of our area). The rain should end quickly on Wednesday as high pressure and drier air build in. High pressure should dominate the weather pattern for the rest of the week with no rain chances and slowly moderating temperatures. .Marine... No changes to the marine-related hazard products with this forecast package, which includes a High Surf Advisory for Walton and Bay Counties and a High Risk of Rip Currents for all of our beaches. The Gale Warning for all but the far eastern legs of the coastal waters still appears to be on track. Both of our 60NM offshore buoys have recorded gale-force gusts already, with the one south of Panama City recording a non-convective peak wind of 41 knots. Additionally, the C-Tower closer to shore just SSE of St. George Island recently measured a 32 knot gust. .Fire Weather... With moderate to heavy rainfall expected today, there are no fire weather concerns for the next few days.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 75 66 77 49 59 / 100 50 40 20 50 Panama City 74 65 73 50 58 / 100 40 30 10 40 Dothan 74 61 73 44 57 / 100 30 20 10 30 Albany 74 63 74 46 58 / 100 50 20 10 30 Valdosta 77 67 76 49 58 / 90 60 50 30 50 Cross City 79 68 76 52 62 / 70 50 50 40 60 Apalachicola 74 67 76 53 60 / 90 40 40 20 50
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay- Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. High Surf Advisory until Midnight CST tonight for Coastal Bay- South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Apalachee Bay-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Monday for Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM. Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...GOULD SHORT TERM...LAMERS LONG TERM...LAMERS AVIATION...HOLLINGSWORTH MARINE...LAMERS FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...HOLLINGSWORTH

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