Area Forecast Discussion
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920 FXUS62 KTAE 190901 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 401 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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A massive long wave trough continues to dominate all but the west coast of North America this morning. The massive dip in the jet stream has brought extreme temperatures for autumn for much of the country. The cold front that ushered in the present Arctic air mass is now pushing across the Bahamas, Cuba and Belize! Surface high pressure is centered just north of the north central Gulf Coast. There is still just enough mixing to maintain a light north wind across the forecast area. That has tempered the temp decline somewhat in a few spots, but that was anticipated. Several locations have gone calm and we expect most inland areas to follow. We could therefore see a quicker drop in temps, if not a sudden one, at some observing station as we approach dawn, although we are running out of time. Hard freeze conditions have already occurred across our northern zones. AAF has tied their daily record low and TLH is one degree off theirs. With full sunshine, temps should rebound nicely during the day and will not be quite as cold as on Tuesday. Northern areas will see temps some 8-10 degrees milder with southern areas closer to 3-5 degrees. Most locations will top out in the mid 50s. .Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]... One more very cold night is expected tonight before a moderating trend begins. With the surface high position expected to be a tad farther south compared to last night, the coldest temperatures tonight may actually be across the Florida big bend and adjacent extreme south-central Georgia where another hard freeze is possible. Elsewhere, a light freeze is expected away from the coast. Dry weather will continue through the short term. .Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]... By late in the weekend, models are in overall agreement on swinging a potent upper level shortwave and associated cold front through the area. Much of the guidance forecasts this trough to take on a negative tilt just west of the area with a very strong low-level jet core on the order of 70 knots just northwest of the area, and 50-60 knots in our forecast area. Shear is forecast to be quite strong with this system, and both the 00z Euro and GFS have mid 60s dewpoints returning inland from the coast by 12z Sunday. With this setup, a strong to severe squall line sweeping across the area is a possibility from late Saturday night through Sunday. The main limiting factor will be the uncertainty with the amount of moisture return and associated instability. After Sunday, although the shortwave will lift up into the Great Lakes, longwave troughing will continue west of the area. Another weaker system could bring us a chance of showers on Monday or Tuesday.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12Z Thursday] VFR conditions will prevail through the period with calm to light winds.
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&& .Marine...
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Winds and seas will continue to diminish today with conditions dropping below advisory levels across the offshore water by mid-morning. Relatively light northeast winds are expected on Thursday. Winds will gradually veer from east to south and increase this weekend as a low pressure system develops west of the area. Advisory conditions are possible as early as Saturday and become likely by Saturday night into Sunday. In fact, a strong to severe squall line may sweep across the coastal waters Saturday night into Sunday.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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The red flag warnings will remain in place for today. Southeast AL will see low RH durations. In FL, it will be durations and high ERC that meet red flag criteria. The ERC numbers for Bay and Calhoun Counties in FL were suspiciously low for yesterday, so we are not quite sure what is going on there. Looking ahead to tomorrow, RH will still be quite low in the FL Big Bend and Leon and Wakulla were put under a fire weather watch. Moisture levels will continue to increase later in the week with a wetting rain expected over the weekend.
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&& .Hydrology...
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The next chance of widespread rain is expected for late Saturday night through Sunday. While an inch or two of rain is possible, this will not be enough to cause any flooding concerns.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 56 24 65 33 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 Panama City 54 37 63 44 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dothan 54 30 63 37 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 54 27 63 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 54 25 63 34 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cross City 57 24 65 32 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 55 35 63 43 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...Hard Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ this morning for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor- Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie- Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor- Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty- Madison-South Walton-Washington. Red Flag Warning from Noon EST /11 AM CST/ today to 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ this evening for Coastal Bay-Coastal Wakulla-Inland Bay-Inland Wakulla-Leon-Washington. Hard Freeze Watch from this evening through Thursday morning for Gadsden-Inland Dixie-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison. Fire Weather Watch Thursday afternoon for Coastal Wakulla-Inland Wakulla-Leon. GA...Hard Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur- Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller- Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift- Turner-Worth. Hard Freeze Watch from this evening through Thursday morning for Brooks-Lanier-Lowndes. AL...Hard Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST this morning for Coffee-Dale- Geneva-Henry-Houston. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM CST this afternoon for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...WOOL SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM...DVD AVIATION...WOOL MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...WOOL HYDROLOGY...DVD

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