Area Forecast Discussion
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585 FXUS62 KTAE 181913 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 313 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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The period begins with mid/upper trough over NE Gulf region providing some lift. At surface...low south of FL panhandle this afternoon with diffuse warm front ewd across Nrn Gulf of Mex. Satellite currently shows a mid level dry slot advancing across Panhandle but ample rain shield elsewhere with several bands of moderate rain across SE AL and the Ern Big Bend and adjacent GA. As of 2 PM EDT...24 rainfall totals ranged from 3 to 4 inches over Wrn portions of SE AL and adjacent Walton County and generally 2 to 2 1/2 inches elsewhere. Before midnight, surface low will strengthen as it moves ENE along frontal boundary. During the overnight hours...weakened H5 low moves to FL Panhandle by 06z while surface low gradually lifts to NE FL by 06z and SE GA by 12Z. This will focus rain thru sunrise across NE third of CWA along and north of low/front. Most High-Res guidance continue to show modest wrap around moisture behind low moving onshore after midnight. So rain will continue, however intensity will begin to taper off thru sunrise from locally heavy to moderate to light from SW-NE. This reflected in model soundings which show that lower level flow has shifted to NW by sunrise but PWATs remain around 1 inch. Will go with 40-80% SW-NE POP gradient 00z-06z then 20-70% 06z-12z. Grounds will remain saturated across the CWA and will be monitored for any localized flooding. With nearly stacked low...cant discount a slight chance of tstms south of there...mainly SE Big Bend in eve. Expect lows from upper 40s SE AL/Panhandle to mid-upper 50s SE Big Bend and adjacent GA counties. .Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]... Mid/upper level shortwave trough remains quite progressive and will be exiting the area through the day tomorrow. Expect low clouds and chance of light showers will linger into the morning with clearing spreading from sw-ne across the region through the day with ern/central GA counties the last to clear. In the wake of this system, seasonably cool temperatures and gusty north winds will invade the region. Tricky max T forecast for Saturday with much depending on when and how much clearing develops. Have opted for a blend with highs holding in the lower to mid 60s over central GA and around 70 into parts of sern AL and the FL panhandle/ern Big Bend. Otherwise, expect weather to improve significantly during the holiday weekend with mostly sunny skies and temperatures topping out in the mid 70s inland and lower 70s along the beaches Sunday. Overnight lows Saturday and Sunday nights should range in the lower 50s. .Long Term [Monday Through Friday]... The next frontal system will be fast moving and shift through Tuesday bringing a chance of rain and isolated thunderstorms. Drier air will move in Wednesday/Thursday as high pressure builds in over the area. The Euro has moisture returning Friday and lingering through the end of the extended period, while the GFS is a bit slower with arrival of the rain. Blended the two and went with a slight chance of showers for Friday. Temperatures will be seasonal with highs in the low 80s and lows in the 50s.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Saturday]...IFR ceilings will plague the region until mid-morning tomorrow. The rain will end later tonight as the Gulf low moves northeast out of the region. Winds will shift to the northwest late this evening.
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&& .Marine...
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Surface low will move across the Apalachee Bay tonight with gusty north winds overspreading the area in its wake through tomorrow. Although much of the clouds and rain will be exiting the area from west to east Saturday, winds and seas will remain up into Sunday. A small craft advisory will remain in effect from tonight through the day Saturday. Conditions will improve by Sunday morning into early next week.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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With such wet conditions today, there will be no fire weather issues (i.e. Red flag conditions) through at least this weekend.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Many locations in the region are reporting 2+ inches of rain already and the rain will last until late evening or even longer for the northern portion of the region. Many of the area rivers are in minor flood stage and a few are in moderate flood stage. The Choctawhatchee River is rising quickly and is expected to reach major flood stage near Bruce around midnight. The Flint River and the Ochlockonee River are rising steadily and will begin to fall early next week. The Suwannee River is rising steadily and will do so until at least mid next week. Many locations will get another 1-2 inches of rain today. A more detailed hydrology discussion is available on our ESF (Hydrologic Outlook) product, which can be found here: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=ESF&issuedby=TAE The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found on our AHPS page (below). http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 53 66 51 75 53 / 70 20 10 0 0 Panama City 51 70 54 75 59 / 50 10 0 0 0 Dothan 48 68 49 74 53 / 70 30 10 0 0 Albany 50 65 49 74 51 / 80 40 20 0 0 Valdosta 55 65 50 74 52 / 80 40 20 0 0 Cross City 59 70 51 76 53 / 60 20 10 0 10 Apalachicola 56 69 54 72 58 / 50 10 0 0 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Saturday for Calhoun- Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin- Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty- Madison-South Walton-Washington. High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Saturday for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien- Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early- Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman- Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth. AL...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Saturday for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry- Houston. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for Apalachee Bay- Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...BLOCK SHORT TERM...EVANS LONG TERM...WESTON AVIATION...MCDERMOTT MARINE...EVANS FIRE WEATHER...BLOCK HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT

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