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467
FXUS62 KTAE 171320
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
920 AM EDT Fri May 17 2013

.NEAR TERM [Today]...
-- Changed Discussion --
Early morning fog across the Florida Panhandle continues to slowly
erode this morning, with only lingering patchy fog around Panama
City westward to De Funiak Springs. At the surface, our region
remains to the west of a surface high pressure ridge. Aloft, a
disturbance is moving through the Tennessee River Valley. With
limited deep layer moisture, as noted on the morning sounding, any
showers and storms will be isolated at worst, and likely remain
to the north of our region today.

Still expect a good sea breeze circulation this afternoon which
will result in temperatures a good 5 to 8 degrees cooler at the
coast (lower 80s) than sites further inland where upper 80s to
near 90 degrees are possible.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...
-- Changed Discussion --Very Little change in thinking from the previous forecast, as 90
degree High Temperatures appear in store for much of the interior of
our CWA over the upcoming weekend. The one fly in the ointment will
be the eastward progress of a closed Upper Level Low which is now
moving through the lower MS Valley. The trof associated with this
Low will likely provide just enough lift and instability to produce
20-30 percent PoPs during the afternoon hours, especially across
northern and eastern portions of the region, before Upper Level
Ridging builds in from the west thereafter.-- End Changed Discussion --

.LONG TERM [Sunday Night through Thursday]...
-- Changed Discussion --Deep layer ridging is expected over the Southeast U.S. through mid
week. A weak trough is forecast to develop later in the work week.
The GFS and ECMWF differ on exactly when and how much this trough
will develop. Regardless, the NWP guidance consensus is close to
climatology for PoP and temperatures. The PoP will be in the 20-30%
range through the period, mainly during the afternoon and early
evening hours. It will be a warm period, especially given our
relatively cool spring so far, with highs near 90 and lows in the
60s.-- End Changed Discussion --

.AVIATION [Through 12z Friday]...
-- Changed Discussion --
Lingering fog dissipating quickly this morning. Only ECP shows
LIFR conditions as of 13z, but this will improve quickly. VFR all
sites after 14z with another round of fog expected overnight,
potentially once again into the IFR/LIFR range.-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
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Generally light onshore winds and low seas will dominate our coastal
waters for the next several days, with just some minor
enhancements near the coast with the afternoon sea breeze.-- End Changed Discussion --

.FIRE WEATHER...
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Relative humidity levels will remain above critical thresholds for
the next several days. Therefore, red flag conditions are not
anticipated.-- End Changed Discussion --

.HYDROLOGY...
Area rivers and streams will remain well below flood stage for the
next several days with very little rain in the forecast.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --Tallahassee 86 61 90 64 90 / 0 0 20 10 20
Panama City 81 67 83 67 83 / 10 0 10 10 10
Dothan 87 65 89 66 89 / 10 10 20 20 20
Albany 88 65 90 65 89 / 10 10 30 20 30
Valdosta 89 63 91 63 90 / 0 10 20 20 30
Cross City 86 62 88 63 88 / 0 0 20 10 30
Apalachicola 79 65 81 67 81 / 0 0 10 10 10-- End Changed Discussion --

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.-- End Changed Discussion --

NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Gould
LONG TERM...Fournier
AVIATION...Godsey
MARINE...Gould
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Godsey

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