Area Forecast Discussion
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193 FXUS62 KTAE 260855 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 455 AM EDT Tue Aug 26 2014 .Near Term (Today)...
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A much drier airmass has become established across much of the region in the last 24 hours. The 00z sounding at KTAE showed the precipitable water had dropped to 1.15 inches. With little change to the weather pattern today, expect dry conditions to continue. The only exception may be a few showers developing in the moderate northeasterly flow across the southeastern Florida Big Bend. Temperatures will be near normal for late August, generally in the lower 90s. .Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]... As was mentioned on Monday, daytime high temperatures will still be considered on the Hot side with most afternoon temps rising into the middle 90s each day away from the immediate coast and over extreme northern portions of the CWA. However, with surface dewpoints expected to mix out into the upper 50s to the middle 60s with all of the deep layer dry air just ready to mix down to the surface (TAE`s 00 UTC PWAT was a remarkably low 1.13" for this time of year), afternoon relative humidities will drop into the 30s each afternoon. The end result of this will be Maximum Heat Indices that will be almost exactly the same as the Maximum High temps...in the middle 90s. On Thursday, a few upper 90s may sneak into the fcst across N FL, but this will be a far cry from the 4 consecutive days of Heat Indices of 108 to 115+. .Long Term [Thursday Night Through Monday]... After a dry day on Thursday, The GFS and ECMWF forecast the return of a moisture-rich boundary layer on Friday and Saturday as the deep layer flow shifts from east to south. However, neither model shows much in the way of Q-G forcing with this return in moisture, and the mid layer tropospheric moisture isn`t that impressive. This would suggest near climo PoPs (peaking around 40% at each site`s locally-favored diurnal peak). The GFS and ECMWF diverge a bit Sunday and Monday, as the GFS forecasts plentiful deep layer moisture (and even some weak Q-G forcing) over our region as a series of short wave troughs translate eastward over the Gulf Coast states. The ECMWF rebuilds a 500 mb high (and dry, sinking air aloft) over our forecast area, which would result in below-climo PoPs and above-climo high temperatures. The GFS hasn`t been very consistent from run to run. Additionally, we`re heading into the climatological transition to lower PoPs. Our forecast is a blend of the two solutions, with a little more weight given to the drier ECMWF solution.
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&& .Aviation...
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VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Gusty winds up to 17kts are anticipated during the daytime hours on Tuesday.
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&& .Marine...
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With a fairly tight pressure pattern and relatively cool and dry air advection for this time of year, the Small Craft Advisory conditions out of the northeast are persisting across the coastal waters early this morning, but should finally diminish to Cautionary levels for this afternoon and tonight, where we will have a fairly rare easterly surge in the winds tonight. This particular pattern usually occurs in the Winter and Spring months, so we have yet another footnote to add to our unusual summer of 2014.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Through drier conditions are expected through much of this week, relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. Thus red flag conditions are not expected.
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&& .Hydrology...
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With little to no measurable rainfall expected across the Tri-State region until Friday and the upcoming weekend, there are no pressing hydrological concerns at the present time.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 93 71 95 70 95 / 10 10 20 10 10 Panama City 92 75 91 75 91 / 10 20 20 10 10 Dothan 92 68 93 68 95 / 0 10 10 10 10 Albany 91 68 93 67 95 / 10 10 10 10 10 Valdosta 91 67 94 67 95 / 10 10 10 10 10 Cross City 91 68 94 69 94 / 20 10 20 10 10 Apalachicola 91 76 89 76 90 / 20 20 10 10 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for Apalachee Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...GODSEY SHORT TERM...GOULD LONG TERM...FOURNIER AVIATION...GODSEY MARINE...GOULD FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY HYDROLOGY...GOULD

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