Area Forecast Discussion
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074
FXUS62 KTAE 190123
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
825 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2014

.Update...Nearly ideal radiational cooling conditions setting up
with the center of high pressure settling in overhead. We
should see our coldest temps since Feb 13 2012 by daybreak.

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Although the anomalous 500 mb trough was already beginning to lift
out to the northeast, our coldest temperatures will be tonight as an
area of high pressure becomes centered over southwest GA. The deep,
dry airmass and calm winds will allow rapid radiational cooling to
occur, sending record low temperatures into the upper teens to lower
20s inland (away from the cities). Only the beaches will escape a
long, hard freeze, and even there we expect a light freeze.

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

The aforementioned surface high will remain nearly stationary
through Thursday, so we expect another freeze (lows in the 20s)
Wednesday night/Thursday morning. The shallow cold airmass will
limit vertical mixing (and warming), so high temperatures on
Wednesday will still be below average (mid 50s). A gradual warming
trend will begin Thursday afternoon, with highs in the mid 60s.
Lows Thursday night will "only" reach the mid 30s. Given the
forecast for low temperatures in the lower to mid 20s Thursday
morning, we`ve issued a hard freeze watch for the FL Big Bend,
North FL, and extreme south central GA.

.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

A deep layer ridge will develop over the Southeast on Friday as a
warming trend continues. Aside from some minor timing differences,
the GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement in bringing a vigorous
southern stream trough (and associated cold front) through our
forecast area Saturday night and Sunday. However, it does not look
like this will be a "clean" frontal passage, as another, weaker
system will translate quickly eastward across the Gulf Coast states
early next week. After a relatively cool start Saturday morning
(lows around 40 inland), temperatures will generally be above
average. Highs will be in the 70s and lows in the 50s. Rain appears
likely Saturday night and Sunday, with a chance of rain lingering
into early next week.

The Q-G forcing and jet stream magnitudes appear impressive in both
models for Sunday`s system, which would suggest a threat of severe
storms. However, both models forecast unimpressive SBCAPE values
(less than 500 J/kg).

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Thursday] Unlimited cigs and unrestricted vsbys at least
Wednesday evening. Winds will be less than 10 KTs through Wednesday.

&&

.Marine...

Winds and seas have fallen just below advisory levels across the
nearshore coastal waters, but will remain at advisory levels
offshore through tonight. Moderate northeast winds will continue
through Thursday as high pressure remains north and northeast of the
marine area.

&&

.Fire Weather...

A red flag warning continues across the southeast corner of Alabama
and portions of northwest Florida this Tuesday afternoon. Although
max temperatures will be about 5 to 10 degrees warmer on Wednesday,
dew points will be very low resulting in minimum relative humidity
values in the upper teens to lower 20s throughout the Tri-state
region. Red flag conditions are likely across the same areas on
Wednesday and the Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to the Red
Flag Warning. Increasing low level moisture starting on Thursday
will offset any fire weather concerns at least through the upcoming
weekend.

&&

.Hydrology...

Any "bumps" in the local river stages from Monday`s rain will be
minor. The next chance for rain will be Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   19  55  23  65  33 /   0   0   0   0  10
Panama City   29  54  37  63  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        23  53  31  62  38 /   0   0   0   0  10
Albany        21  53  28  63  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      21  54  25  64  35 /   0   0   0   0  10
Cross City    20  57  24  65  32 /   0   0   0   0  10
Apalachicola  29  54  36  62  44 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Hard Freeze Warning from 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ this evening to 9
     AM EST /8 AM CST/ Wednesday for Calhoun-Central Walton-
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-
     Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-
     Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-
     Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-
     Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton-
     Washington.

     Red Flag Warning from Noon EST /11 AM CST/ to 6 PM EST /5 PM
     CST/ Wednesday for Coastal Bay-Coastal Wakulla-Inland Bay-
     Inland Wakulla-Leon-Washington.

     Hard Freeze Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday
     morning for Gadsden-Inland Dixie-Inland Jefferson-Inland
     Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison.

GA...Hard Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EST
     Wednesday for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-
     Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-
     Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-
     Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

     Hard Freeze Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday
     morning for Brooks-Lowndes.

AL...Hard Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM CST
     Wednesday for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 5 PM CST Wednesday for Coffee-
     Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Wednesday for Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BARRY
NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER






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