Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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178
FXUS62 KTAE 141934
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
334 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

AN AIRMASS MUCH MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING, SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THIS TREND
TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH STORMS LIKELY PERSISTING TO
AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
NORTH OF MOBILE BAY SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH DEBRIS CLOUDINESS STREAMING OVERHEAD. OUR REGION
LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN IMPULSES OVERNIGHT, SO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN LOW OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH PLENTIFUL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDINESS ARE
LIKELY OVERNIGHT.


.SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH
A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THE SOUTHEAST US WILL REMAIN UNDER
RIDGE WITH ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE. POPS WILL BE IN
THE CHANCE TO LIKELY CATEGORY. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED, SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 80S AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...
THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST DURING THE PERIOD.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS TO WHEN THIS
WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. THE GFS HAS THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE EURO HAS IT ON MONDAY
NIGHT. BOTH MODELS SHOW A TRANSITION TO A DRIER PERIOD BEHIND THE
TROUGH. POPS WILL BE IN THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AND AROUND 30 PERCENT ON MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY] VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DROP TO IFR LEVELS AFTER 05Z AS
CEILINGS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. VISIBILITIES MAY ALSO DROP
TOWARD MORNING SHOULD THE WINDS GO CALM. ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSISTING
THROUGH LATE MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THEREAFTER TO THE
END OF THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.MARINE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3
FEET INCREASING TO 4 FEET ON SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RATHER WET...SUMMERLIKE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE RESULTED IN SOME SHARP
RISES ON THE CHIPOLA RIVER WITH RISES ALSO NOTED ON THE
CHOCTAWHATCHEE, PEA AND SHOAL RIVERS. FOR THE MOST PART, AREA
RIVERS WILL REMAIN BELOW ACTION STAGE. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM JUST A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST BIG
BEND TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THESE
TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON AREA
RIVERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   71  82  68  83  67 /  40  60  50  60  40
PANAMA CITY   72  78  68  79  69 /  50  60  40  60  40
DOTHAN        69  81  65  80  64 /  60  70  50  60  50
ALBANY        69  81  65  78  62 /  50  70  60  60  50
VALDOSTA      70  83  65  82  65 /  30  70  60  60  40
CROSS CITY    71  85  67  83  67 /  20  60  40  60  30
APALACHICOLA  73  80  71  81  71 /  40  50  40  60  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...WOOL



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