Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 280038
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
838 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
AFTER PASSAGE OF TODAY`S COLD FRONT, NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL
INVADE THE REGION TONIGHT. MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
30S OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE LOWER
TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST MORNING WE HAVE
SEEN SINCE MARCH 8TH AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A RATHER CHILLY
ALBEIT DRY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS GUSTY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
WATERS. WINDS OF 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL 30 KNOT GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. WITH SEAS REMAINING ELEVATED
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND THEN REMAIN LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION [424 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...
AFTER A CHILLY START IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROXIMATELY 10-15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS, THE WARMING
TREND WILL BE FAIRLY SLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE AROUND 60 IN NORTHERN LOCATIONS OF THE
CWA WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA, SOUTHERN
ALABAMA, AND FLORIDA WITH DECENT SUNSHINE AROUND. NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST US. CURRENT THINKING PLACES THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH OVER
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND GEORGIA BORDER WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
WOULD MAKE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THE
COLDEST. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY RECORDS TO FALL, MOST
LOCATIONS EAST OF TALLAHASSEE WILL SEE NEAR-RECORD LOWS AROUND OR
JUST BELOW 40 DEGREES. THE ONLY UNCERTAINTY RESIDES IN THE AMOUNT
OF ANY HIGH CLOUDS, IF ANY, THAT COULD PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. THERE IS ALSO SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY AS THE
EURO IS SLOWER MOVING THIS RIDGE SOUTHEAST AND WOULD NOT ALLOW
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUNDAY AS EASTERLY
FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BEGINS TO
ESTABLISH.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK A WEAK SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY
ENTERING THE WASHINGTON STATE AREA) WILL PROGRESS EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON MONDAY THIS WILL HELP GENERATE WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES. ALONG WITH THIS FEATURE A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA AND STALL GIVING
OUR AREA COOL CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. AFTER THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY A CUT- OFF LOW WILL
EJECT EASTWARDS AWAY FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND WILL HELP GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
LATER IN THE WEEK AS SOME CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE ONGOING IN THE
WESTERN GULF.


.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AIR IS ON TAP THIS WEEKEND. WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL DROP TO CRITICAL LEVELS...FUELS WILL BE TOO MOIST TO ALLOW
RED FLAG CRITERIA TO BE MET. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.


.HYDROLOGY...
ALL AREA RIVERS REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE ARE NO FLOODING
CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   41  63  42  67  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
PANAMA CITY   45  62  46  65  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
DOTHAN        38  60  39  65  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALBANY        38  58  38  63  48 /   0   0   0   0  10
VALDOSTA      41  62  40  67  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
CROSS CITY    44  65  41  68  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
APALACHICOLA  45  64  47  64  57 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     GULF.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR APALACHEE BAY
     OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL
     OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO
     APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE
     RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SUWANNEE
     RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...LAMERS/DOBBS
LONG TERM...LAMERS/DOBBS
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...LAMERS/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS/WESTON



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