Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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449 FXUS62 KTAE 141456 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1056 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 .NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
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WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH ON & OFF CLOUD COVER. ALL THIS HUMIDITY AND MOISTURE IS BEING DRIVEN BY SOUTHERLY WINDS COMING FROM THE GULF INTO OUR AREA. PWATS TODAY ARE ALSO STILL FAIRLY HIGH WITH VALUES OF 1.58 AS OF THIS MORININGS 12Z SOUNDING. THE INTERMITTENT CLOUD COVER MAY ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE TODAY, ALLOWING FOR HIGHS TO GET BACK INTO THE MID 80S FOR THE PANHANDLE AREA. COMBINED WITH ALL THE MOISTURE, THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS & STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK OF THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL RETURN ALONG WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES OUR AREA.
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&& .AVIATION...
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[THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY]... LIFR CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATER THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REGION AND POSSIBLY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION.
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&& .PREV DISCUSSION [406 AM EDT]...
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.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]... UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL OPEN UP AND KICKED NORTHEASTWARD BY THE NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE GULF COAST REGION UNDER WSW UPPER FLOW WITH RIPPLES OF ENERGY PASSING OVERHEAD FROM TIME TO TIME. A SYNOPTIC FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION, ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY COULD BACK DOOR INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE CAROLINAS. PWATS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT HIGH WITH LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR VALUES RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY. ABUNDANT CLOUDS WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE RUNNING SOME 15-18 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.| .LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]... THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A CUT-OFF LOW OVER NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY AND THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY BEFORE OPENING UP AND LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAIN SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW SURFACE FEATURES WITH THIS SYSTEM DEVELOP/EVOLVE OVER THE PLAINS. THE LATEST GFS RUN BACKED OFF ITS MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FROM THE 18Z RUN AND NOW DELAYS ANY DRYING UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THIS FORECAST. THEREFORE, LOOK FOR MORE OF THE SAME ATYPICAL APRIL WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. .MARINE... OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. .FIRE WEATHER... RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH HIGH RH EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD STAY HIGH. .HYDROLOGY... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE RESULTED IN SOME SHARP RISES ON THE CHIPOLA RIVER WITH RISES ALSO NOTED ON THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE, PEA AND SHOAL RIVERS. FOR THE MOST PART, AREA RIVERS WILL REMAIN BELOW ACTION STAGE. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM JUST A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THESE TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON AREA RIVERS.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TALLAHASSEE 85 68 82 67 83 / 50 40 50 50 60 PANAMA CITY 78 69 78 68 79 / 50 50 60 40 50 DOTHAN 83 65 81 65 80 / 60 50 60 50 60 ALBANY 86 66 81 65 78 / 60 50 70 60 60 VALDOSTA 85 67 83 66 82 / 50 40 60 50 60 CROSS CITY 87 67 84 67 82 / 20 30 50 40 60 APALACHICOLA 79 72 79 70 81 / 40 40 50 40 50
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&& .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...GODSEY/ARROYO SHORT TERM...WOOL LONG TERM...WOOL AVIATION...GODSEY MARINE...WOOL FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS HYDROLOGY...WOOL

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