Area Forecast Discussion
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259 FXUS62 KTAE 190721 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 321 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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A shortwave will pass through northern Georgia this morning with models showing a secondary impulse moving across central AL into central GA this afternoon/evening. The NAM solution shows deeper moisture over the area and is a little more robust with the trailing impulse than the GFS solution. This is also reflected in the MOS PoP guidance with the MET as much as 40% higher than the MAV for some of our forecast points. The locally run CAM guidance also supports the higher PoPs. The mean flow continues to be moderate from the west and based on convective coverage on Monday, will lean close to the NAM solution which shows likely PoPs for all but the Florida coastal areas and SE Big Bend (20-40%). Also as we saw on Monday, a few storms may be strong to briefly severe. Despite the above climo PoPs, the westerly low-level flow will support temperatures in the mid 90s this afternoon. .Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]... Mid-level heights will be on the rise for Wednesday and Thursday as the eastern U.S. trough slides offshore and a ridge builds over the Central Gulf Coast. As the low/mid-level ridge builds west of the forecast area, the low-level flow will become west- northwesterly for Wednesday and northerly for Thursday. With weakening upper support and less favorable flow for seabreeze convection, expect decreasing PoPs through Thursday, especially for inland areas. The building ridge will also lead to some hot temperatures. Expect highs to reach the mid 90s on Wednesday, with upper 90s to near 100 degrees possible on Thursday. Heat indices may rise above 105 in a few areas by Thursday. .Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]... An upper level ridge is expected to build northward from the Gulf across the southeast states through the period. With deep layer ridging acting to suppress afternoon convection, PoPs are forecast to be slightly below average through the period with temperatures above average. The main driver for convection will be the sea breeze with isolated to scattered coverage expected.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 06Z Wednesday] We should see patchy fog develop towards daybreak with MVFR vsbys and or cigs at most terminals. Then, look for another active day with numerous showers/TSTMS by this afternoon. The convection should briefly impact all terminals but difficult to pin timing down so left VCTS at each site starting at or after 18z.
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&& .Marine...
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Light to moderate west-southwest flow will continue through Wednesday before high pressure builds over the waters and winds and seas diminish through the end of the week. Conditions are forecast to remain below headline criteria through the period.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Normal summer conditions through the week will mean plentiful moisture, preventing red flag criteria from being met.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Significant flooding is not expected over the next several days.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 95 75 96 75 99 / 60 30 40 20 30 Panama City 94 78 93 78 93 / 30 20 30 20 30 Dothan 94 74 95 74 98 / 70 30 30 30 10 Albany 95 73 97 75 99 / 60 30 30 20 10 Valdosta 96 73 96 74 98 / 60 30 30 20 20 Cross City 94 75 94 74 96 / 20 10 40 20 20 Apalachicola 92 77 93 76 93 / 30 10 30 10 20
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...BARRY SHORT TERM...CAMP LONG TERM...DVD AVIATION...BARRY MARINE...CAMP FIRE WEATHER...BARRY HYDROLOGY...DVD

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