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954 FXUS62 KTAE 260737 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 337 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]... This mornings surface analysis depicted a weak surface trough axis across central and southeast Georgia, noted in both the pressure but primarily the temperature fields. This feature will drift southwest through the morning with another round of drizzle and light rain expected along its leading edge as very shallow, but saturated, upglide occurs over the cool wedge of surface high pressure. Elsewhere, the Southeast coast is plagued by a messy low-level troughy pattern, with the most important part of the trough (for us at least) currently oriented north to south from Cape Canaveral through south Florida. As the steering flow continues to veer to the southeast, this feature will slowly drift northwest through the day bringing a chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms to the southeast Big Bend of Florida late in the day. Regarding the tricky cloud cover and subsequent temperature forecast, expect a day similar to yesterday. As the aforementioned weak trough moving through central Georgia passes through the area, some scattering of low clouds will be possible along the leading edge. However, the current thinking is that the solid low cloud deck will build back in behind the trough. So, based on the current thinking regarding the timing of this trough, expect some scattering west of a line from Albany to Panama City later this afternoon. In this region expect highs to climb into the upper 70s. Now, although the cloud deck will remain more solid to the east the advection of the low-level trough over south Florida will likely spread some WAA across the southeast Big Bend and extreme south-central Georgia. Even with the dense cloud cover, expect temperatures to climb into the lower 80s under the weak WAA regime. .Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]... Deep moisture will continue to increase through the short term as the deep layer flow turns more southeasterly and then southerly by Sunday ahead of an upper trough. There is good agreement amongst the model guidance on precipitable water values rising to well above 2 inches across the area by Saturday and especially on Sunday. With the approach of the upper trough on Sunday, a weak surface low is likely to develop along the Gulf coast. These factors point to increasing rain chances from south to north this weekend with the highest chances on Sunday when some heavy rainfall amounts could occur. The most likely area for heavy rainfall appears to be along the Florida panhandle coast closest to the better forcing from the upper trough on Sunday, and heavy rain wording was inserted into this area. Afternoon temperatures will be a bit below normal with all of the cloud cover expected. .Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]... Deep moisture will be in place through Monday as the inverted surface trough interacts with an upper trough over the central Gulf Coast. This should result in elevated rain chances continuing into Monday, with locally heavy rainfall possible given precipitable water values above 2 inches. Things should begin to dry out by Monday night or Tuesday as the upper energy shears out to the northeast. The global guidance differs in the timing on when the deep moisture moves out, so have left some low end PoPs in the forecast for much of the forecast period. With the tropical airmass for the first part of the period and no significant airmass change expected behind this system, expect temperatures to run near or just above normal into the middle of next week. && .Aviation... [Through 06Z Saturday] Expect a mixture of MVFR/IFR ceilings to spread southwest through the early morning and impact all terminals. By midday, some scattering to VFR will be possible from ABY to ECP, westward. MVFR should be anticipated at TLH and VLD all day. && .Marine... Northeasterly flow will continue through tonight before shifting to easterly on Saturday and southeasterly Saturday night into Sunday. Conditions will likely be at or near exercise caution levels this weekend before winds weaken early next week. && .Fire Weather... As we transition to a very wet pattern, there will be no fire weather concerns through at least early next week. && .Hydrology... General rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely across the forecast area through Monday, except 2 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts along the panhandle coast. These amounts are not expected to result in any river flooding due to low flows from the recent dry summer. However, isolated instances of flash flooding cannot yet be ruled out for Sunday, mainly along the panhandle coast. It is too soon to consider any watches, but this trend will have to be monitored. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 81 70 86 72 86 / 20 10 50 40 70 Panama City 79 71 84 74 86 / 20 10 60 70 80 Dothan 78 67 84 70 84 / 20 10 40 40 70 Albany 79 67 85 70 85 / 10 10 40 40 60 Valdosta 83 69 86 70 86 / 20 20 50 40 60 Cross City 84 71 86 71 87 / 60 40 60 40 60 Apalachicola 80 73 84 75 83 / 20 30 70 70 70 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM...CAMP AVIATION...HARRIGAN MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...DVD

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