Area Forecast Discussion
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034 FXUS62 KTAE 241516 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1116 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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An eastern U.S. trough will move off the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coast through the day today. In its wake middle and upper level ridging will overspread the southeastern half of the country. This will strengthen the surface ridge and force it further down the Eastern Seaboard subsequently pushing a "backdoor" front into the Tri-State region. Based on this morning`s subjective analysis, the front is currently located near the SC/GA line with a pre-frontal trough draped through central and southeast Georgia, and another surface trough oriented northwest to southeast from Montgomery through Cairo and down the western Florida coastline. Convection should initiate this afternoon along the aforementioned troughs, especially the northeastern-most where PWATs are highest. Storms will then most likely conglomerate south and east of a line from Tallahassee to Valdosta, with more of a widely scattered nature across south Georgia. By the evening, the backdoor front will press into south Georgia and both focus convection along it and force the remaining and additional storms further southwest into SE Alabama and the Florida panhandle. The 12z sounding from Tallahassee would suggest a very unfavorable atmospheric profile for convection, simply because it is unusually dry for this time of year. However, it may be a bit misleading as a more moist airmass from the western Atlantic has since overspread the region. Satellite estimates would suggest that PWATs have climbed back to near 2 inches east of a line from Albany to Tallahassee, which is slightly above normal for this time of year. This is part of the reason why we`ll likely be supressed over the western half of the region for most of the day today (wrt seabreeze storms), with the majority of the showers and storms to the east. There is a potential for gusty to marginally severe winds with the strongest storms today, and this will likely be across the eastern and southeastern Big Bend of Florida in the mid to late afternoon timeframe. Finally, the heat will continue to be a concern today with maximum temperatures forecast to climb to the upper 90s region-wide. Marginal heat advisory conditions are expected today, especially west of the majority of the convection this afternoon. This should be the last day where both temperatures and heat indices will run above normal.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12Z Monday]... VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF, outside of showers and thunderstorms. Restrictions due to storms are most likely at TLH, ABY, and VLD.
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&& .Prev Discussion [432 AM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]... A break from the heat will begin in the short term period as a weak frontal boundary moves in from the northeast. This boundary (along with the westward retreat of the upper level ridge) should continue to keep showers and storms continuing across the region tonight. In fact, a few of these storms could be strong in the evening. Expect convection to move offshore after midnight and possibly linger into Monday. By Monday, drier air moves into the region as high pressure builds across the Mid Atlantic States. We will have a break from the heat and humidity of the past few days, though highs will still be in the lower 90s. On Tuesday, the east-northeasterly flow will increase between the surface ridge across the Mid Atlantic and a tropical system moving east of the Bahamas. This may provide just enough moisture for a few isolated showers late in the day across the Florida Big Bend, though the bulk of the region will benefit from drier air continuing to spread in from the Carolinas. .Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]... Northeasterly flow will continue through Wednesday, keeping a dry airmass in place across the region. This will keep rain chances well below climatology and temperatures near or just above normal. Temperatures will begin to warm again by late in the week as the ridge rebuilds aloft. Moisture is not expected to increase significantly until at least next weekend, so rain chances will remain relatively low. .Marine... After a period of light winds and lows seas today, increasing northeasterly flow tonight will reach cautionary levels on Monday. As the gradient further tightens on Tuesday, a period of advisory conditions will be possible. By Wednesday, winds will diminish considerably as a weak high pressure builds over the area. .Fire Weather... With plenty of heat and humidity, no Red Flag conditions are expected anytime in the near future. .Hydrology... After scattered storms today, expect a stretch of dry conditions through much of this week. As a result, river stages will remain low.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 99 76 93 71 93 / 50 40 10 10 10 Panama City 96 79 92 74 91 / 40 40 20 10 10 Dothan 97 74 93 68 92 / 30 40 10 0 10 Albany 97 74 91 69 91 / 50 30 10 0 10 Valdosta 97 73 91 69 93 / 60 40 10 0 10 Cross City 98 73 92 71 92 / 70 40 10 10 10 Apalachicola 96 80 91 77 90 / 40 40 20 10 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for Calhoun- Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin- Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty- Madison-South Walton-Washington. GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Berrien- Brooks-Calhoun-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady- Irwin-Lanier-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-Seminole-Thomas-Tift- Worth. AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Coffee-Dale-Geneva- Henry-Houston. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN SHORT TERM...GODSEY LONG TERM...CAMP AVIATION...HARRIGAN MARINE...GODSEY FIRE WEATHER...GOULD HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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