Area Forecast Discussion
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286 FXUS62 KTAE 261607 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1207 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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Similar to the last two days, the forecast area remains sandwiched between two upper level ridges with little in the way of synoptic scale flow. This will make the sea breeze circulation the main driver for convection once again today. One subtle change for today is that the 1000-700 mb mean wind is expected to have more of a westerly component instead of southwest like the last couple of days. As a result showers and thunderstorms will form in the Florida counties and move eastward. The Alabama and Georgia counties will be drier than the past few days...thus afternoon highs will be warmer. .Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]... Model guidance continues to be in excellent agreement in the amplification of the Eastern CONUS trough through the long term period. As the trough deepens on Monday night into Tuesday, expect a cold front to move through the forecast area by Tuesday afternoon. While there are some slight differences on timing and magnitude of the cooler and drier air behind this frontal boundary, there is good agreement now that the front will clear to the south. Dry conditions should be in place across the region from Tuesday evening into Thursday. This interval will also feature some cool overnight lows, possibly dipping into the lower 60s in the colder spots across Southern Alabama. Even in the Florida Big Bend, temperatures Wednesday and Thursday mornings should drop into the upper 60s or just a bit cooler. Records for this period at Tallahassee are as follows: July 30 - 67 (1927) July 31 - 63 (1896) Aug 1 - 64 (1993) By Thursday afternoon, moisture will begin to increase once again across the forecast area as another upper disturbance within the main upper trough moves into the forecast area. Unsettled conditions look to return Friday and into next weekend with rain chances increasing considerably. While overnight lows will return to climatological norms for early August, daytime temperatures will still be below normal due to plenty of convective activity.
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&& .Prev Discussion [252 AM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]... For Sunday, the forecast area will remain in a col region between upper ridges to east and west, and a trough to the north. The seabreeze will continue to provide the primary forcing. However, with the low-level flow generally out of the west and a slight decrease in deep layer moisture, expect coverage to be lower than on Saturday. With less convection and clouds, temperatures will be able to rise into the mid to upper 90s, especially across interior areas. With dewpoints holding in the lower to mid 70s, this will likely push apparent temperatures to near 105 Sunday afternoon. By Monday, the eastern U.S. trough is forecast to amplify and drive a cold front southward towards the Gulf Coast. Expect to see convection focus along the front across central Alabama/Georgia during the early to mid afternoon, with the activity pushing south into Florida by late afternoon. .Aviation... [Through 06Z Sunday] There is a possibility of brief and patchy fog with MVFR vsbys after 09z at all sites. VFR will return shortly after daybreak with scattered convection developing. VCTS is included in all of the TAFs except for ABY and DHN as most of the convection this afternoon is expected to be south of those locations. TLH has the highest probability (around 50%) of seeing convection today out of all of the TAF sites. .Marine... With the subtropical ridge stationed south of the waters, westerly to southwesterly flow will continue through early next week. As a front approaches the Gulf Coast early in the week, winds may approach exercise caution levels Monday into Tuesday. .Fire Weather... Red flag conditions are not expected over the next several days, although high dispersion values are expected Sunday afternoon across the inland Florida big bend. .Hydrology... The Shoal River at Mossy Head has reached bank full stage but is not forecast to reach flood stage. All other area rivers are below bank full stage. Thunderstorms could bring locally heavy rainfall the next few days but widespread impacts are not expected.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 93 74 96 76 96 / 50 30 30 20 40 Panama City 89 78 91 79 90 / 40 20 40 20 30 Dothan 93 75 97 76 95 / 20 20 20 20 50 Albany 96 75 97 76 95 / 20 20 20 20 50 Valdosta 95 73 96 76 95 / 40 30 30 20 40 Cross City 91 73 94 74 93 / 40 20 50 20 20 Apalachicola 90 77 90 79 90 / 40 20 40 20 20
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM CDT this evening for Coastal Bay. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT SHORT TERM...CAMP LONG TERM...GODSEY AVIATION...DVD MARINE...CAMP FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...WESTON

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