Area Forecast Discussion
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058
FXUS62 KTAE 161524
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1124 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
VERY MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE
NEXT IN A SERIES OF IMPULSES KICKED OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THESE ARE NOW
MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA. A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA, FROM NEAR DOTHAN
EASTWARD TO JUST NORTH OF VALDOSTA. THE PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY
LIKELY PROVIDED SOME ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL WE`VE
SEEN THIS MORNING.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME HEATING, BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STORM COVERAGE MAY
NOT BE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY. NEVERTHELESS, HI-RES GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS IS LIKELY LATER
TODAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [333 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...

A VERY MOIST SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL EXTEND ACROSS MEXICO AND
THE GOMEX WITH A DEEP CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY WITH ENHANCED RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE NOW QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LAYING
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. AS
THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST PARALLELING THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COASTLINE, A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE PULLED INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES
BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. UNTIL THEN, ON FRIDAY EXPECT TO
SEE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH POPS IN THE LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE REGION.
SATURDAY, WE SHOULD SEE POPS TAPERED FROM LIKELY (70%) FAR WEST
ZONES TO SLIGHT (20%) EASTERN THIRD. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS EXCEPT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR OUR NORTHERNMOST
ZONES ON FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM [SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME ABSORBED IN
ANOTHER LOW TRANSLATING FROM THE UPPER PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EITHER LATE MONDAY
OR EARLY TUESDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. HOWEVER, MOST
OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE EAST SO POPS
WILL BE IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY TUESDAY
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS OF SEEING CONVECTION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WON`T BE THAT MUCH COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT THE LOWER HUMIDITY WILL MAKE IT FEEL A
LITTLE MORE LIKE APRIL THAN JUNE.


.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY] IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT ALL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST WELL INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AN
EVENTUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS EXPECTED. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORM ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY AND ARE INDICATED
AS A POSSIBILITY AT ALL TERMINALS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH EVENING.


.MARINE...

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY BECOMING LIGHT TO
MODERATE AS THEY SHIFT TO ONSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. WINDS SHIFT TO BECOME OFFSHORE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY.


.FIRE WEATHER...

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH HIGH RH EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY AND FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD STAY HIGH.


.HYDROLOGY...

RECENT HEAVY RAINS IN THE FL PANHANDLE, SOUTHEAST AL, AND SOUTHWEST
GA HAVE RESULTED IN SOME SHARP RISES IN LOCAL RIVER STAGES. HOWEVER,
OUR EASTERN RIVERS REMAIN MOSTLY UNAFFECTED. WE EXPECT MOST OF THE
RIVER STAGES TO REMAIN BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION STAGES, THOUGH THIS
COULD CHANGE IF BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN SET UP OVER A PARTICULAR RIVER
BASIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   81  67  80  64  85 /  70  80  70  30  40
PANAMA CITY   77  69  77  67  80 /  80  70  60  20  60
DOTHAN        77  64  76  62  82 /  90  90  60  30  60
ALBANY        76  62  74  61  83 /  80  90  60  30  40
VALDOSTA      79  65  80  64  86 /  60  80  70  30  20
CROSS CITY    83  67  82  65  87 /  70  70  60  20  20
APALACHICOLA  80  71  78  68  80 /  80  60  70  20  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER



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