Area Forecast Discussion
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954
FXUS62 KTAE 260737
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
337 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
This mornings surface analysis depicted a weak surface trough axis
across central and southeast Georgia, noted in both the pressure
but primarily the temperature fields. This feature will drift
southwest through the morning with another round of drizzle and
light rain expected along its leading edge as very shallow, but
saturated, upglide occurs over the cool wedge of surface high
pressure.

Elsewhere, the Southeast coast is plagued by a messy low-level
troughy pattern, with the most important part of the trough (for us
at least) currently oriented north to south from Cape Canaveral
through south Florida. As the steering flow continues to veer to
the southeast, this feature will slowly drift northwest through
the day bringing a chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms
to the southeast Big Bend of Florida late in the day.

Regarding the tricky cloud cover and subsequent temperature
forecast, expect a day similar to yesterday. As the aforementioned
weak trough moving through central Georgia passes through the area,
some scattering of low clouds will be possible along the leading
edge. However, the current thinking is that the solid low cloud
deck will build back in behind the trough. So, based on the
current thinking regarding the timing of this trough, expect some
scattering west of a line from Albany to Panama City later this
afternoon. In this region expect highs to climb into the upper
70s. Now, although the cloud deck will remain more solid to the
east the advection of the low-level trough over south Florida will
likely spread some WAA across the southeast Big Bend and extreme
south-central Georgia. Even with the dense cloud cover, expect
temperatures to climb into the lower 80s under the weak WAA
regime.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
Deep moisture will continue to increase through the short term as
the deep layer flow turns more southeasterly and then southerly by
Sunday ahead of an upper trough. There is good agreement amongst
the model guidance on precipitable water values rising to well
above 2 inches across the area by Saturday and especially on
Sunday. With the approach of the upper trough on Sunday, a weak
surface low is likely to develop along the Gulf coast. These
factors point to increasing rain chances from south to north this
weekend with the highest chances on Sunday when some heavy
rainfall amounts could occur. The most likely area for heavy
rainfall appears to be along the Florida panhandle coast closest
to the better forcing from the upper trough on Sunday, and heavy
rain wording was inserted into this area. Afternoon temperatures
will be a bit below normal with all of the cloud cover expected.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
Deep moisture will be in place through Monday as the inverted
surface trough interacts with an upper trough over the central
Gulf Coast. This should result in elevated rain chances continuing
into Monday, with locally heavy rainfall possible given
precipitable water values above 2 inches. Things should begin to
dry out by Monday night or Tuesday as the upper energy shears out
to the northeast. The global guidance differs in the timing on
when the deep moisture moves out, so have left some low end PoPs
in the forecast for much of the forecast period. With the tropical
airmass for the first part of the period and no significant
airmass change expected behind this system, expect temperatures to
run near or just above normal into the middle of next week.


&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Saturday] Expect a mixture of MVFR/IFR ceilings to
spread southwest through the early morning and impact all
terminals. By midday, some scattering to VFR will be possible from
ABY to ECP, westward. MVFR should be anticipated at TLH and VLD
all day.

&&

.Marine...
Northeasterly flow will continue through tonight before shifting
to easterly on Saturday and southeasterly Saturday night into
Sunday. Conditions will likely be at or near exercise caution
levels this weekend before winds weaken early next week.

&&

.Fire Weather...
As we transition to a very wet pattern, there will be no fire
weather concerns through at least early next week.

&&

.Hydrology...
General rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely across the
forecast area through Monday, except 2 to 3 inches with locally
higher amounts along the panhandle coast. These amounts are not
expected to result in any river flooding due to low flows from the
recent dry summer. However, isolated instances of flash flooding
cannot yet be ruled out for Sunday, mainly along the panhandle
coast. It is too soon to consider any watches, but this trend will
have to be monitored.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   81  70  86  72  86 /  20  10  50  40  70
Panama City   79  71  84  74  86 /  20  10  60  70  80
Dothan        78  67  84  70  84 /  20  10  40  40  70
Albany        79  67  85  70  85 /  10  10  40  40  60
Valdosta      83  69  86  70  86 /  20  20  50  40  60
Cross City    84  71  86  71  87 /  60  40  60  40  60
Apalachicola  80  73  84  75  83 /  20  30  70  70  70

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...DVD






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