Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 201324
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
930 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014
This morning`s KTAE sounding as expected is very moist with deep
westerly flow. Convection associated with the northern fringe of MCS
over the Gulf extends inland across the Florida panhandle. Raised
PoPs through the morning for western 2/3rds of CWA based on radar
coverage. This activity is spreading eastward. PoPs this afternoon
have also been raised to likely across the board.
[Through 12z Monday] IFR cigs with ocnl low visibilities have
developed at TLH/DHN/ABY and expect these conditions to remain in
place up til around sunrise when these restrictions should end
quickly. Convection should near the western terminals just after
sunrise and spread eastward. Focused thunderstorm TEMPO groups to
capture expected most likely thunderstorm times at the terminals.
IFR conditions are possible with the stronger storms. Should see
things quiet down after 00z when thunderstorms diminish.
.Previous discussion [413 am]...
.Near Term [Through Today]...
Another active day is expected across the region today. Area radars
as of 0730z are showing convection developing over the waters south
of the western Florida Panhandle as well as over interior southern
Alabama. With the Eastern CONUS trough well established and shown in
some models to actually amplify by the end of today, anticipate
plenty of convective activity across the region by evening. With
storms developing now to the west of the region, expect an early
start across the western areas and then spreading eastward into the
afternoon. Once again today, too much convection in western areas
this morning could limit downstream development this afternoon in
eastern areas. Convective activity will limit high temperatures to
the mid and upper 80s again today.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...
Despite the weakening and gradual dissipation of the Sfc low pressure
system in our region which will occur over the next 24 hours, the
upper level low will essentially remain well entrenched. Therefore,
the fairly wet and unsettled conditions similar to this weekend are
expected to continue well into the upcoming work week. While no
strong to severe thunderstorms are expected due to extensive cloud
cover and lack of adequate destabilization, some additional heavy
rainfall will be possible over the next few days. However, flooding
is not expected to be much of a concern, as the area most likely to
receive the larger rainfall amounts should gradually shift eastward
with time as well. Once again, high temperatures will vary quite a
bit from location to location and be highly dependent on breaks in
the cloudiness to reach or exceed the 90 degree mark. Overnight lows
should remain generally in the lower 70s at most locations, except
for mid to a few upper 70s near the immediate coast.
.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Saturday]...
The first two days of the long term will be near or above climatology
in terms of rain chances while temperatures are expected to be below
climatology. The increased chances for rain will be due to general
long wave troughing over the Eastern CONUS and an upper low that is
forecast to cut off from the mean 250mb flow and move southwest. As
this low rotates around a fairly anomalous ridge over the Western
US, rain chances will remain high through Wednesday. After Wednesday
afternoon, models diverge slightly but both the Euro/GFS suggest a
return to near normal climatological rain chances. For the end of
the long term took an equal blend of HPC, Euro, and GFS guidance.
A low pressure system now in the vicinity of our western coastal
waters will keep winds and seas slightly elevated for one more day
today, before this surface low dissipates tonight and Monday. This
will result in the return of a weaker pressure pattern more typical
for summertime, which should result in generally light winds and low
seas for the remainder of the period.
Moist conditions for the next several days will prevent red flag
criteria from being met.
While additional rainfall concerns for any potential minor flooding
or rises along some of our area rivers and streams in the Florida
Panhandle (such as Mossy Head which could potentially reach minor
flood stage today with around 2.5" of additional rainfall) will
gradually decrease as the higher amounts begin to lessen and shift
eastward next week, some locations in the Florida Panhandle will
require some close monitoring today in case another batch of heavy
rainfall strikes the region. Otherwise, only minor flooding of poor
drainage and low lying areas will be possible once again today.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 87 74 88 73 91 / 60 50 60 30 50
Panama City 87 77 88 76 89 / 70 40 40 20 40
Dothan 88 73 90 73 92 / 70 30 40 20 50
Albany 89 73 89 73 92 / 70 40 60 20 50
Valdosta 88 73 88 71 92 / 70 50 70 30 60
Cross City 89 73 88 71 92 / 60 40 70 40 60
Apalachicola 87 78 87 76 88 / 60 50 50 30 50
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
Coastal Gulf-South Walton.