Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 271526
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1026 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015
.Near Term [Through Today]...
Previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments
needed. Dry northwest flow will remain in place across the area today as the
forecast area is situated within the southwestern edge of the large
circulation around the northeastern blizzard. Temperatures are
expected to be near seasonal normals, with highs reaching the upper
50s to lower 60s under partly cloudy skies.
.Prev Discussion [330 AM EST]...
.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
A reinforcing shot of slightly cooler air will arrive late tonight
with high pressure building over the Tennessee River Valley.
With the core of the high pressure area remaining to our north
through tonight, we won`t realize ideal radiation cooling
conditions, so lows generally in the mid 30s are expected.
The cool airmass will remain in place for Wednesday. Despite sunny
skies, temperatures will only warm into the upper 50s to near 60.
High pressure builds closer to the region on Wednesday night, but
increasing high cloudiness aloft may offset the favorable calm
winds and prevent a light freeze from occurring.
A slight warming trend will begin on Thursday as southerly flow
resumes ahead of a weak cold front. Highs will warm into the mid
to upper 60s across the region with mainly increasing mid/upper
.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
The first half of the long term period is still expected to be
relatively tranquil. Model guidance is in good agreement that the
next frontal system will be weak - and possibly dry as it passes
through Thursday night and early Friday. The bulk of the cooler
air behind this system will remain to the north.
There`s more uncertainty this cycle with the forecast Sunday and
beyond. The next storm system will begin to organize late Saturday
across West Texas and spread eastward across the Mississippi River
Valley. The GFS and Euro differ with how much southern stream
energy gets wrapped into this system and thus disagree on how
strong the storm system will be moving through the region on
Sunday afternoon. The trend looks to be toward a stronger
solution, so rain chances have been increased from the previous
package for Sunday.
Monday and Tuesday are highly uncertain as the models differ in how
they handle a potent southern stream impulse moving across
Northern Mexico early next week. Where a frontal zone ultimately
stalls across the Gulf on Monday will largely determine whether next
week is quite wet or is just on the cool side with a few passing
In either solution, the long term looks to continue the trend of
at or below normal temperatures to finish off January and start
[Through 12Z Wednesday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
forecast period at all terminals. Northwest winds will gust to
around 20 knots during the day on Tuesday.
Small Craft Advisory conditions across the offshore marine area
will continue into Wednesday when high pressure will move near
enough to the marine area to allow winds to subside. Generally
tranquil conditions will continue thereafter until a dry cold
front moves through the marine area on Friday resulting in an
increase in offshore winds.
A drier airmass will continue to filter into the region over the
next few days. However, Red Flag conditions are not expected. With
strong transport winds, dispersion values will be very high across
the area today.
Routed flow continues to progress downstream across rivers in far
Southern Georgia and the Florida Big Bend. The Ochlockonee has
crested at Thomasville just below flood stage. This suggests that
downstream conditions at Concord and Havana will be very near or
just above flood stage later this week.
The Withlacoochee River is cresting above Valdosta this morning
and the additional water from the Little River (cresting at Hahira
this evening) will likely result in minor flood levels later this
week below Valdosta at US-84.
The next notable rainfall threat is on Sunday, with models
suggesting a widespread 0.5-1.0 inch rainfall amounts across the
area. Though these amounts are unlikely to result in any
additional river flooding, they will continue to help keep area
streamflows above normal as we move into February.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 64 35 60 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 64 40 58 42 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 60 36 57 37 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 59 33 57 33 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 61 35 58 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 64 36 61 31 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 64 41 59 42 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK through late tonight for Coastal Gulf-South
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for Waters from
Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.