Area Forecast Discussion
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309
FXUS62 KTAE 250122
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
922 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Some convection lingers across coastal areas, especially around
Panama City this evening, but otherwise most of it has pushed
offshore into the Gulf. The only exception is a small cluster
around Moultrie which should diminish in the next few hours.
Overnight lows will range from the lower 70s across the northeast
part of the area to the upper 70s along the coast.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Tuesday] VFR conditions are expected with high clouds
gradually clearing out overnight. An isolated shower or storm may
impact ECP this evening, but confidence was not high enough to
include in the TAF. Tomorrow should be mostly sunny and generally
dry, with gusty northeast winds. Gusts around 20 knots will be
possible between 15Z and 00Z.

&&

.Prev Discussion [258 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

A deep, dry airmass will move into our forecast area Monday and
Tuesday, greatly reducing our rain chances. Although high
temperatures won`t exactly be cool, they will be back to average
(lower 90s) for this time of year. Additionally, the lower
humidity and fresh east winds will make it feel more pleasant than
what we`ve experienced the past several days.


.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

The GFS and ECMWF forecast an area of higher heights over the
Southeast through the period. Initially the deep layer moisture is
forecast to be limited, but by next weekend it may be sufficient
to support scattered mainly afternoon & evening storms (as opposed
to just isolated storms Wednesday through Friday). Temperatures
will be near climo, with lows in the 70s and highs in the 90s.


.Marine...

Northeast winds will increase overnight as the "backdoor" cold
front moves southeast across the marine area. Winds & seas will be
well above average for this time of year through at least Tuesday
night- possibly reaching advisory levels at times.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.Hydrology...

After scattered storms today, expect a stretch of dry conditions
through much of this week. As a result, river stages will remain
low.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   75  93  72  92  72 /  10  10  10  20  20
Panama City   78  92  75  92  75 /  70  10  10  20  20
Dothan        73  92  69  91  70 /  20  10  10  10  10
Albany        72  92  68  92  69 /  10   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      73  92  68  91  68 /  10  10  10  20  10
Cross City    75  91  71  91  69 /  10  30  10  20  10
Apalachicola  78  92  76  90  77 /  50  10  10  20  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






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