Area Forecast Discussion
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618 FXUS62 KTAE 140052 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 752 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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We remain locked into a stable weather pattern as the mid-upper level flow across much of the CONUS was an omega block. The latest NWP guidance consensus is very close to our afternoon forecast package, as we anticipate another in a string of cool nights. Lows will be near freezing across the normally coldest interior locations east of the Apalachicola/Chattahoochee Rivers, and mid 30s west. Widespread frost is also likely.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Monday] We will continue our recent stretch of remarkably fair weather through at least Sunday evening. Unlimited cigs and unrestricted Vis are expected, with NW-N winds less than 10 KT through the period. Smoke plumes from a few wildfires may locally reduce Vis.
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&& .Prev Discussion [352 PM EST]...
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.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]... High-amplitude upper-level ridging will overspread much of the eastern third of the country on Sunday. The upper-level pattern will begin to transition on Monday as a +PV anomaly forces a shortwave trough into the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. At the surface, high pressure will remain intact through the day on Monday, continuing the dry northwest flow on Sunday, and very weak transitioning flow on Monday. No rain is expected on Sunday or Monday, with highs gradually moderating to near 70 degrees on Monday. Overnight lows on Sunday night will remain in the low to mid 30s. On Monday night, a somewhat favorable region of upper-level diffluence will overspread the local area where the northern stream short-wave and southern stream flow spread apart on the heels of the departing ridge. However, it appears as though this synoptic support will arrive prior to the surface front with very little deep layer moisture or low-level forcing available. Thus no rain is expected on Monday night, though the veering low-layer flow should moderate overnight temperatures into the 50s west of the Apalachicola and Chattahoochee rivers and in the lower to middle 40s east. .Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]... On Tuesday, the aforementioned surface front will press into the region and will bring a slight chance for some light showers. Though, as mentioned above, the deep layer forcing will have outrun the front yielding only shallow forcing immediately along the front. Rainfall amounts will be less than a quarter of an inch at best. We`ll finish the week dry, with seasonable afternoon highs and overnight lows. The next chance for rain will come next weekend as another shortwave moves into the eastern half of the country. .Marine... Sub-headline level northwest winds will continue through Sunday night before veering southerly late on Monday through the first part of Tuesday. On Tuesday, a cold front will pass through the northeast Gulf and may increase winds briefly to cautionary levels. Light winds and low seas will then prevail to finish the week. .Fire Weather... Fair weather will continue through Monday, with a gradual warming and moistening trend, especially during the afternoons. With a high pressure system remaining in place, surface and transport winds, as well as daytime mixing heights, will remain low. This combination will keep daytime dispersion values at unusually low levels. .Hydrology... Dry weather is expected for much of the next week. The only exception will be when a quarter-inch or less of rain will be possible on Tuesday. Though, area rivers should remain rather steady state.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 33 68 36 70 45 / 0 0 0 0 10 Panama City 43 63 45 67 54 / 0 0 0 0 10 Dothan 37 63 39 68 51 / 0 0 0 0 20 Albany 33 65 36 68 46 / 0 0 0 0 10 Valdosta 33 66 37 68 43 / 0 0 0 0 10 Cross City 32 68 35 69 41 / 0 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 41 65 44 66 53 / 0 0 0 0 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...FOURNIER SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN LONG TERM...HARRIGAN AVIATION...FOURNIER MARINE...HARRIGAN FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN

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