Area Forecast Discussion
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034
FXUS62 KTAE 241516
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1116 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

An eastern U.S. trough will move off the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast coast through the day today. In its wake middle and
upper level ridging will overspread the southeastern half of the
country. This will strengthen the surface ridge and force it
further down the Eastern Seaboard subsequently pushing a
"backdoor" front into the Tri-State region. Based on this
morning`s subjective analysis, the front is currently located near
the SC/GA line with a pre-frontal trough draped through central
and southeast Georgia, and another surface trough oriented
northwest to southeast from Montgomery through Cairo and down the
western Florida coastline.

Convection should initiate this afternoon along the aforementioned
troughs, especially the northeastern-most where PWATs are highest.
Storms will then most likely conglomerate south and east of a line
from Tallahassee to Valdosta, with more of a widely scattered
nature across south Georgia. By the evening, the backdoor front
will press into south Georgia and both focus convection along it
and force the remaining and additional storms further southwest
into SE Alabama and the Florida panhandle. The 12z sounding from
Tallahassee would suggest a very unfavorable atmospheric profile
for convection, simply because it is unusually dry for this time
of year. However, it may be a bit misleading as a more moist
airmass from the western Atlantic has since overspread the region.
Satellite estimates would suggest that PWATs have climbed back to
near 2 inches east of a line from Albany to Tallahassee, which is
slightly above normal for this time of year. This is part of the
reason why we`ll likely be supressed over the western half of the
region for most of the day today (wrt seabreeze storms), with the
majority of the showers and storms to the east. There is a
potential for gusty to marginally severe winds with the strongest
storms today, and this will likely be across the eastern and
southeastern Big Bend of Florida in the mid to late afternoon
timeframe.

Finally, the heat will continue to be a concern today with maximum
temperatures forecast to climb to the upper 90s region-wide.
Marginal heat advisory conditions are expected today, especially
west of the majority of the convection this afternoon. This should
be the last day where both temperatures and heat indices will run
above normal.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Monday]...

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF, outside of showers
and thunderstorms. Restrictions due to storms are most likely at
TLH, ABY, and VLD.

&&

.Prev Discussion [432 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...
A break from the heat will begin in the short term period as a
weak frontal boundary moves in from the northeast. This boundary
(along with the westward retreat of the upper level ridge) should
continue to keep showers and storms continuing across the region
tonight. In fact, a few of these storms could be strong in the
evening. Expect convection to move offshore after midnight and
possibly linger into Monday.

By Monday, drier air moves into the region as high pressure builds
across the Mid Atlantic States. We will have a break from the heat
and humidity of the past few days, though highs will still be in
the lower 90s.

On Tuesday, the east-northeasterly flow will increase between the
surface ridge across the Mid Atlantic and a tropical system moving
east of the Bahamas. This may provide just enough moisture for a
few isolated showers late in the day across the Florida Big Bend,
though the bulk of the region will benefit from drier air
continuing to spread in from the Carolinas.


.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...
Northeasterly flow will continue through Wednesday, keeping a dry
airmass in place across the region. This will keep rain chances
well below climatology and temperatures near or just above normal.
Temperatures will begin to warm again by late in the week as the
ridge rebuilds aloft. Moisture is not expected to increase
significantly until at least next weekend, so rain chances will
remain relatively low.


.Marine...
After a period of light winds and lows seas today, increasing
northeasterly flow tonight will reach cautionary levels on Monday.
As the gradient further tightens on Tuesday, a period of advisory
conditions will be possible. By Wednesday, winds will diminish
considerably as a weak high pressure builds over the area.


.Fire Weather...
With plenty of heat and humidity, no Red Flag conditions are
expected anytime in the near future.


.Hydrology...
After scattered storms today, expect a stretch of dry conditions
through much of this week. As a result, river stages will remain
low.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   99  76  93  71  93 /  50  40  10  10  10
Panama City   96  79  92  74  91 /  40  40  20  10  10
Dothan        97  74  93  68  92 /  30  40  10   0  10
Albany        97  74  91  69  91 /  50  30  10   0  10
Valdosta      97  73  91  69  93 /  60  40  10   0  10
Cross City    98  73  92  71  92 /  70  40  10  10  10
Apalachicola  96  80  91  77  90 /  40  40  20  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for Calhoun-
     Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-
     Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal
     Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland
     Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland
     Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-
     Madison-South Walton-Washington.

GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Berrien-
     Brooks-Calhoun-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-
     Irwin-Lanier-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-Seminole-Thomas-Tift-
     Worth.

AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-
     Henry-Houston.

GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






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