Area Forecast Discussion
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370
FXUS62 KTAE 240745
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
345 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

03 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA OUT INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING
FROM WESTERN QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND AND EXTENDING DOWN THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW, A MOIST NEAR SURFACE LAYER OF
CLOUDS IS TRAPPED BENEATH A WEAK INVERSION AROUND 900 MB. EXTENSIVE
STRATUS IN PLACE THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE
DAYTIME HOURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. SOME EROSION OF THIS CLOUD DECK IS
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA
WHERE THE BACK EDGE OF CLOUDINESS IS NEARING OUR ALABAMA COUNTIES.
OBVIOUSLY, HOW LONG THE CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND GREATLY IMPACTS THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS RELATIVELY WEAK,
THUS THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE CLOUD DECK WILL ERODE QUICKEST
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS AND ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S,
WHILE STAYING AROUND 70 ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

THE LOCAL WEATHER WILL BE RATHER UNEVENTFUL UNTIL THURSDAY...WHEN
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. FAIR WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURSDAY POPS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...BUT WITH UNIMPRESSIVE
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND FORCING THEY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH LOWS NEAR
60 AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

A STRONG COLD FRONT...IN TERMS OF AIRMASS CONTRAST...WILL MOVE
THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN. SKIES WILL CLEAR LATER ON FRIDAY...BUT THE
COLDEST AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. A MODEST WARMING TREND IS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY] EXTENSIVE MVFR CEILINGS AROUND
1KFT WILL LOWER TO IFR BEFORE SUNRISE ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE LATE
MORNING HOURS, THESE CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AND EVENTUALLY
SCATTER AT ECP/DHN/TLH, BUT PROBABLY REMAIN IN PLACE AT ABY/VLD.
AFTER SUNSET, MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ABY/VLD AND LIKELY
RETURN AT TLH.

&&

.MARINE...

NORTHEAST WINDS WERE IN THE EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL DECREASE LATER TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOSENS. RELATIVELY LOW WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PREVENT ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

MODEST RISES IN SOME OF THE LOCAL RIVER STAGES WERE OBSERVED FROM
THE RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT ALL SITES WERE BELOW ACTION STAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   76  59  81  59  80 /   0  10  10  10  30
PANAMA CITY   75  62  74  63  76 /   0  10  10  10  30
DOTHAN        76  58  78  59  80 /   0  10  10  10  20
ALBANY        75  58  78  58  81 /   0  10  10  20  20
VALDOSTA      71  59  81  60  81 /  10  10  10  20  20
CROSS CITY    78  60  82  61  83 /  10  10  10  10  20
APALACHICOLA  74  63  74  65  77 /   0  10  10  10  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER



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