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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
666
FXUS62 KTAE 190121
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
921 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2013

.NEAR TERM [Tonight]...
-- Changed Discussion --
Updated PoPs for both the 00 to 06 and 06 to 12 UTC time frames
tonight, with likely PoPs still continuing across parts of the FL
Panhandle, all of SE AL, and a good portion of SW and SC GA. A few
strong storms with gusty winds (40-50mph) and frequent lightning
will remain possible over western portions of the CWA for the next
few hours, until the diurnal support for the convection dies off.
After 06 UTC, lowered PoPs to 20% over the interior, but increased
them up to 20s over the Coastal Waters to account for any Land
Breeze convection. Otherwise, the current fcst appears well on
track, and only minor tweaks were applied elsewhere.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Friday]...
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Weather will be a bit unsettled for the rest of the week as a slow
moving surface front, extending e-w across the Appalachians today,
sags swd into the area tomorrow and Thursday. This front will stall
generally e-w across far srn GA/nrn FL and provide a focus for
higher PoPs each afternoon. Have upped PoPs a bit given the location
of the front and the potential for a weak surface wave to form along
it, which will support scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. Overall severe threat will remain low with little or
no shear and weak lapse rates, however an isolated microburst could
not be ruled out Wednesday. Otherwise, temperatures will remain near
normal with highs in the lower 90s and lows around 70.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday Night through Tuesday]...
Pattern will support seasonal conditions through the early part
of next week with afternoon highs inland in the lower 90s along
with a chance of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms each
day. Overall, rather benign mid and upper level pattern is
expected to become established by the weekend and result in little
day to day change.

&&

.AVIATION...
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[Beginning 00Z Wednesday] Showers and thunderstorms are coming to an
end this evening and the primary concern will be the development of
low CIGS. Expecting most sites to drop into the MVFR CIG category
between 06Z and 10Z. Terminals that saw rainfall this afternoon
could see some MVFR VIS restrictions and MVFR/IFR ceilings.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
The subtropical ridge of high pressure, which will extend from the
western Atlantic Ocean into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, will keep
winds light to moderate out of the southwest until Wednesday night,
with the strongest winds over the nearshore legs with the afternoon
Sea Breeze. Then, a cold front approaching from the northwest will
cause a temporary shift in the winds to light offshore, before it
stalls out and weakens in our vicinity on Thursday. Thereafter, a
new ridge of high pressure will build in to our northeast, giving
us lighter winds out of the east and southeast, with a continuation
of the low seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag conditions are unlikely this week as RH values will remain
above critical levels.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No problems are anticipated in the near future.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Tallahassee   75  91  72  90  69 / 20  60  40  50  30
Panama City   77  90  73  89  73 / 30  60  40  30  30
Dothan        74  90  71  92  71 / 60  50  30  40  20
Albany        74  90  71  92  71 / 60  50  30  40  20
Valdosta      73  90  70  92  70 / 30  60  40  50  30
Cross City    73  92  71  91  69 / 20  50  30  40  30
Apalachicola  77  90  72  88  71 / 20  50  40  30  30
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Wool
SHORT TERM...Evans
LONG TERM...Evans
AVIATION...Moore/Walsh
MARINE...Gould
FIRE WEATHER...Wool
HYDROLOGY...Evans