Area Forecast Discussion
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729 FXUS62 KTAE 221934 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 334 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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The main forecast concern was low temperatures for tonight, as high pressure building in will keep skies clear with no precipitation. The 12Z Tallahassee sounding had PWAT of 0.42", and that is expected to drop to around 0.25" by 12Z tomorrow morning. Those values of precipitable water are near minimum values in the radiosonde record for this time of October. Given the lack of atmospheric moisture, relatively light or calm winds overnight, and clear skies, radiational cooling should be very efficient overnight. For this reason we trended the forecast closer to the cooler ECMWF MOS. This produce widespread lows in the lower 40s, except closer to the low-mid 50s right at the Gulf coast. Also, low temperatures in the city of Tallahassee could be about 10 degrees warmer than at the TLH airport (low 50s vs low 40s). .Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]... As the large upper low lifts northeastward, it will be replaced by a short wave trough moving through the Great Plains. This trough axis will then sweep east of the area Friday night. The surface high centered over the Great Lakes will slide steadily southward to a position over the Northwest Gulf Coast by 12Z Saturday. This pattern will maintain the dry weather we have enjoyed for a week now. We will see cooler than normal conditions through most of this period, although Friday`s highs will be pretty close to seasonal averages. Thursday`s highs will run about 4 degrees below normal with mid 70s north to upper 70s south. Low temps will be back down into the lower 40s for most inland areas Thursday night and modify slightly to the mid to upper 40s for Friday night. .Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]... As the trough exits east of the area, the flow across the CONUS will become more zonal. Some weak upper ridging will work eastward across the Gulf Coast and FL through the period with the next long wave trough just starting to deepen across the Plains on Wednesday. This means temps will warm once again with 80s for highs and 50s for lows. It will remain dry with slight chance PoPs only working their way back into the forecast by Tuesday night and Wednesday. It should be noted that the 12Z ECMWF now takes the remnant of TD 9 from the northwest Caribbean Sea and lifts it northward into the Central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. The 06Z GFS was doing something similar with an even stronger system, but the latest version has backed off. Until we see some run-to-run consistency in the models, we will not give too much regard to this scenario.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Thursday] Clear skies (VFR conditions) and light winds should prevail through the TAF period.
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&& .Marine...
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Offshore flow will persist across the waters through much of the period. Wind speeds will increase to cautionary levels tonight, and may briefly approach advisory levels, before decreasing below headline criteria on Thursday. Moderate offshore flow will then persist into the weekend with winds weakening on Sunday and veering to the east by Monday.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Very dry air will continue to filter into the region from a ridge of high pressure off to our northwest. Although conditions are expected to remain below Red Flag levels at this time, slightly longer durations of low relative humidities and slightly higher ERC values could put a small portion of the Florida Big Bend in Red Flag conditions. Therefore, the situation will be monitored closely over the next few days.
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&& .Hydrology...
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There are no hydrologic concerns across the region since it hasn`t rained in a week and no rain is expected for about another week.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 41 77 42 80 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 Panama City 51 76 52 78 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dothan 42 74 44 78 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 41 75 43 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 42 75 43 78 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cross City 44 78 43 80 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 52 76 51 77 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...LAMERS SHORT TERM...WOOL LONG TERM...WOOL AVIATION...LAMERS MARINE...WOOL FIRE WEATHER...GOULD HYDROLOGY...WOOL

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