Area Forecast Discussion
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058 FXUS62 KTAE 232116 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 416 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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A fairly vigorous squall line continues to march eastward across central portions of the CWA early this afternoon with brief heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and wind gusts generally in the 35 to 50 mph range. As the vertical wind shear continues to become more linear in nature, the tornadic threat should continue to decrease throughout the remainder of the day, although severe wind gusts will remain a distinct possibility until the squall line moves through. Thereafter, areas of light to moderate rain, wind gusts of 30 to 45 mph and a few storms will fill in behind the line and may linger for quite some time into tonight, further adding to the rainfall totals. Temps will be very mild for a change with overnight lows ranging from the lower 60s over SE AL to the upper 60s over the SE Big Bend. .Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]... The northern stream longwave trough will deepen through the period as a couple more +PV anomalies dive through the Middle Mississippi Valley and another through the Southern Plains. It won`t be until the southernmost anomaly sweeps through the Southeast that rain will come to an end across the Tri-State region. In the meantime, a weak surface boundary and some southern stream forcing will keep a chance for showers in the forecast on Monday although the synoptic front will be west of the region. Ahead of the front we`ll likely be able to squeeze out one more day of middle 70s across the region. The front will pass to the east of us overnight with temperatures cooling into the low 50s and upper 40s. On Tuesday, we`ll likely be able to generate a little more coverage across the region under some diffluence aloft between the approaching northern stream shortwave and the departing southern stream anomaly. This will all be post frontal, cool rain with afternoon highs in the upper 50s area-wide. Rain will continue through the night Tuesday with lows dipping to around 40 degrees. .Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]... Rain will come to an end from southwest to northeast on Wednesday as the northern stream shortwave finally clears out the moisture and ushers in dry air. Wednesday night through Thursday night expect lows in the mid to upper 30s. We`ll finish the week with afternoon highs and overnight lows gradually climbing back up to seasonal averages.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Monday] Line of thunderstorms will impact the terminals from west to east through the afternoon with heavy rain and gusty winds. Storms should clear KVLD by mid evening. However, IFR cigs will remain possible through the overnight hours at all terminals.
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&& .Marine...
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A prolonged period of at least cautionary winds, and sometimes advisory level will continue through mid-week when high pressure will build into the Southeast. Showers will be possible through Wednesday, and then dry to finish the week.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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A drier airmass will move into the region for Monday. However, humidity values are still forecast to remain well above critical values, so there are no fire weather concerns.
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&& .Hydrology... Widespread rainfall totals of 1-3 inches have occurred over most of the area overnight and through the morning hours. Heavy rain with a squall line this afternoon and evening will exit the area by midnight, with additional amounts of .5 to 1 inch likely. Scattered light rain will continue overnight and through Monday. Due to the fast storm motion expected through this evening, flooding issues are not expected, although some rises will be noted on area streams and rivers by mid week. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 66 77 52 59 41 / 70 40 20 50 60 Panama City 66 72 53 59 44 / 60 30 10 50 60 Dothan 62 76 47 57 40 / 40 20 10 40 50 Albany 64 76 48 58 40 / 70 30 10 40 60 Valdosta 67 75 53 58 42 / 60 50 30 50 70 Cross City 68 74 58 64 45 / 50 50 40 60 70 Apalachicola 66 73 55 60 45 / 60 40 20 50 60
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay- Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. High Surf Advisory until Midnight CST tonight for Coastal Bay- South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Apalachee Bay-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Monday for Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM. Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ NEAR TERM...GOULD SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN LONG TERM...HARRIGAN AVIATION...CAMP MARINE...HARRIGAN FIRE WEATHER...CAMP HYDROLOGY...HOLLINGSWORTH

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