Area Forecast Discussion
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173 FXUS62 KTAE 200203 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1003 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Large stacked low just east of Jacksonville will slowly move away from the region overnight. Wrap around moisture will continue to keep a layer of low cloudiness in place through at least Sunday morning. The lowest 4000 ft of the atmosphere is still essentially saturated so expect pockets of light rain or drizzle to continue through the overnight hours. The cloudiness and winds will keep the temps from dropping too much overnight with lows generally in the mid 50s.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Monday] Low pressure near KJAX will keep north to northeast wind elevated through much of the night. The low pressure will also continue to generate MVFR to IFR cigs through at least mid-morning on Sunday. VFR conditions should return to most terminals during the afternoon.
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&& .Prev Discussion [252 PM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]... Low clouds may linger into Sunday in association with wrap-around moisture around the departing area of low pressure east of the area. Otherwise, look for deep layer ridging, clearing skies and seasonal temps to start the work week. .Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]... The next frontal system looks like it will move through the area on Tuesday. However, it looks weak and fast moving with most of the deep layer moisture affecting the northern half of the area with a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. The pattern appears to remain fairly progressive through the period, and another weak system may affect the area on Saturday. The remainder of the period looks dry with near to slightly above average temperatures. .Marine... Winds and seas will start the night at cautionary levels, but a gradual decreasing trend is expected as the night progresses. No major systems are expected to affect the area through next week, and winds are expected to stay generally around 15 knots or less after tonight. .Fire Weather... Cloudy and cool conditions will continue into Sunday morning... especially ERN areas. Red Flag conditions are not expected through the upcoming work week. .Hydrology... Most of the area saw rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches with higher amounts of 4 to 5.5 inches in Southeast Alabama and Walton and Holmes counties in Florida. These rainfall amounts in additional to rainfall from earlier in the week have led to a rise on rivers with many area rivers in flood stage. The Choctawhatchee at Bruce is expected to reach major flood stage Sunday evening. Points along the following rivers are forecast to reach moderate flood stage: St. Mark`s, Ochlockonee, Chipola, and Shoal rivers. The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found on our AHPS page (below). http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 52 70 51 79 56 / 10 0 0 0 0 Panama City 53 71 56 76 61 / 10 0 0 0 10 Dothan 50 73 52 79 57 / 10 0 0 0 10 Albany 51 72 51 79 54 / 20 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 52 70 50 79 53 / 30 0 0 0 0 Cross City 53 75 52 80 54 / 20 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 54 69 55 74 58 / 10 0 0 0 10 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...GODSEY SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM...DVD AVIATION...CAMP MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...BLOCK HYDROLOGY...WESTON

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