Area Forecast Discussion
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935 FXUS62 KTAE 200737 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 337 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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Mid-level heights will begin to rise today as a ridge of high pressure builds just west of the forecast area. This will lead to a more northwesterly low-level flow, with some drier air working in from the north. This combination of factors should yield reduced rainfall coverage compared to yesterday, with the sea-breeze playing the primary role in triggering convection. For PoPs today, have blended the local sea-breeze climatology with the CAM ensemble guidance. This places the highest PoPs in the western Big Bend, south of I-10. Temperatures should be warmer today owing to the building ridge and reduced cloud cover. Expect temperatures to reach the mid and upper 90s, with the highest values over SE Alabama and SW Georgia. .Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]... Deep layer ridging will build and become centered over the central Gulf coast states Thursday through Friday. This will bring hot temperatures and drier than normal conditions to the region. The best chance for rain (30%) will be across the Florida zones due to the afternoon sea-breeze. Highs will be in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees both days. Heat index values are forecast in the 105-110 degree range over the Florida zones and around 105 degrees elsewhere on Thursday. Heat index values in the 105-110 range could expand to cover most of the Tri-state region on Friday. A Heat Advisory may be needed for at least a portion of our FA for both days. Lows will only be in the mid 70s. .Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]... Conditions are expected to stay hot and relatively dry through early next week as a strong ridging of high pressure builds inland and stays in place until it begins to weaken late this weekend. A long stretch of hot days is on tap with highs expected to reach the upper 90s Thursday through Sunday, decreasing only slightly to the mid 90s Monday and Tuesday when rain chances increase again after the ridge begins to weaken.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 06Z Thursday] With a little extra low-level moisture in place from Wednesdays rainfall, expect to see some MVFR/IFR cigs or vsby at KTLH, KABY, and KVLD. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Thunderstorm activity should be more limited today, with KTLH having the best chance of any impacts.
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&& .Marine...
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Light to occasionally moderate west winds will continue into the upcoming weekend. Seas are generally expected to remain around 2 feet or less through the period.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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High pressure will build over the region over the next few days, pushing afternoon temperatures higher and minimum relative humidities lower. However, despite RH values dropping into the lower to mid 30s by Thursday, no Red Flag Conditions are anticipated.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Rainfall totals through the week are expected to be less than an inch with localized higher amounts possible. With all area rivers below action stage, no flooding is expected.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 96 75 98 75 100 / 40 10 30 20 30 Panama City 93 79 97 78 97 / 40 10 20 20 20 Dothan 96 75 99 76 99 / 20 10 20 10 20 Albany 97 75 100 76 100 / 20 10 20 10 20 Valdosta 96 74 100 74 100 / 30 10 20 20 30 Cross City 94 74 98 74 97 / 30 10 30 20 30 Apalachicola 93 77 94 77 95 / 40 10 20 20 20
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...CAMP SHORT TERM...BARRY LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...CAMP MARINE...BARRY FIRE WEATHER...CAMP HYDROLOGY...WESTON

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