Area Forecast Discussion
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232 FXUS62 KTAE 190807 AAA AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 407 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014 .Update... As was mentioned as a good possibility, did end up changing PoPs for today, with the main difference being 60% (likely) rain chances near the coast, over the SE FL Big Bend, and over the entire coastal waters this morning. This is due to a large area of convection already breaking out over western portions of the marine area, and the Gulf of Mexico waters to the south of both Mobile and New Orleans. && .Prev Discussion [344 AM EDT]... .Near Term [Through Today]... Although no severe weather is expected and storm total rainfall amounts will likely be quite limited, the upcoming fcst for today (and beyond for that matter) will be fairly complex. Deep layer moisture, along with sct showers and thunderstorms off to our west that are associated with an upper level trof are expected to dive southeastward towards the CWA today. However, the northern portion of this rain area is already beginning to lose its support as it moves into the drier air over our region, and much of the remaining moisture is expected to be entrained into an upper level low which is progged to develop a cutoff circulation just to our east by this evening. This makes for a very challenging PoP fcst for today, which will likely need to be updated as the situation unfolds. For now, am going with 20% to 40% from NE to SW this morning, then 20% to 50% generally from W to E this afternoon. Total rainfall amounts are expected to range from 0.05" to 0.10" across SE AL and much of the FL Panhandle to 0.15" to 0.25" further to the east, with up to 0.35" possible over the extreme SE FL Big Bend. With plenty of mid and high level cloudiness to go with the sct showers and isolated thunderstorms, high temps are expected to be held down into the mid to upper 80s this afternoon. .Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]... With the exception of some convergent showers on Saturday (primarily east of Albany and Tallahassee), the weekend should be rather suppressed WRT convective coverage as the Tri-State region resides on the stable side of a mid/upper low/trough. The lower heights and cooler atmospheric profile should yield a couple of cooler-than-typical afternoons. Expect highs in the mid 80s on Saturday, and nearing 90 on Sunday. .Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]... There is a little uncertainty in the models regarding the exact evolution of the mid-upper level flow pattern next week, although it has been a consistent trend to show significant amplification over North America. The one consistent trend has been the establishment of a persistent easterly low-level flow regime across our area as another strong surface high builds into the Northeastern US. This should keep isolated to scattered showers in the forecast (mainly in the late afternoon and early evening), with temperatures moderating close to seasonal normals. .Aviation... [Through 12Z Saturday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the terminals through the period with some MVFR level Vis possible at VLD this morning. Also, a brief period of MVFR conditions will again be possible this afternoon at all sites except DHN. .Marine... As high pressure builds south today through tonight, winds will increase to near cautionary levels beginning this afternoon. Winds will then gradually subside through the weekend as the calm center of the ridge move further into the Southeast. .Fire Weather... No fire weather concerns are expected for the next several days. .Hydrology... Generally light rainfall amounts are expected for the foreseeable future, except in very localized instances. Therefore, we are not expecting any significant flooding issues over the next week. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 89 68 86 67 89 / 40 50 20 10 10 Panama City 88 71 86 71 88 / 60 50 20 10 10 Dothan 89 66 85 65 89 / 20 30 10 10 10 Albany 88 67 83 66 89 / 50 30 30 10 10 Valdosta 87 66 84 65 88 / 50 40 40 10 10 Cross City 87 66 86 65 88 / 60 50 40 20 20 Apalachicola 87 72 84 72 85 / 60 50 20 20 10 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ UPDATE...GOULD NEAR TERM...GOULD SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN LONG TERM...LAMERS AVIATION...GOULD MARINE...HARRIGAN FIRE WEATHER...GOULD HYDROLOGY...LAMERS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.