Area Forecast Discussion
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160 FXUS62 KTAE 251555 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1155 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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Today will feature the same general pattern as yesterday. The morning analysis shows two upper level ridge centers, one across the southern plains and the other off the east coast of Florida. There is a break in between the two centers where very weak upper level troughing exists. As we head through the day, the 1000-700 mb mean wind will once again be out of the southwest, yielding a borderline type 4 or 5 sea breeze regime. This favors isolated to scattered convection starting near the coast this morning and spreading inland across the remainder of the area through the afternoon hours. The ensemble of convection allowing models also shows this general evolution, so the PoP forecast will once again favor a blend of the CAMs and sea breeze climatology for today with seasonable high temperatures. .Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]... Model guidance is in reasonably good agreement that the pattern across the Eastern CONUS will amplify considerably at the start of the period as a large trough moves through the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic States. For several runs now, the models have all indicated the surface cold front making it through most if not all of our forecast area by Tuesday. Thus, expect a couple of days of below normal temps with little or no rain chances. The bulk of the colder air should remain confined in the Tennessee Valley and areas to the north though Wednesday and Thursday morning lows will drop into the 60s across Srn Alabama/Georgia. By Thursday, the pattern stalls or even retrogrades slightly with the 500 mb trough axis aligned from the Southern Appalachians through our forecast area. As deep layer moisture begins to increase on Thursday, rain chances will increase. Afternoon temperatures will still remain below normal through this portion of the long term period due to expected cloud cover, though overnight lows will return to seasonal norms.
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&& .Prev Discussion [558 AM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]... With an upper ridge centered over Texas and the mean East Coast trough pulling north of the forecast area, there will be very little in the way of synoptic scale forcing for the region through the weekend. This will leave the seabreeze as the primary mechanism for triggering convection for Saturday and Sunday. Precipitable water values and mid-level temperatures should be near seasonal normals, so PoP are weighted towards seabreeze climo for west to southwest flow. Temperatures will be warm as well, especially over the interior where the onset of scattered thunderstorms will hold off until later in the afternoon. Expect to see lower 90s south of I-10 and mid 90s to the north. .Aviation... [Through 12z Saturday] Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the day. The typical summertime scattered diurnal convection will develop across the area from southwest to northeast with VCTS shown in the forecast for now. It would not be surprising to see a few tempos for TSRA later today, but confidence in the coverage and timing is not quite high enough to include tempos at this time. .Marine... Southwesterly to westerly flow is expected to remain in place across the coastal waters into early next week as the subtropical ridge axis stays south of the waters. By late Monday into Tuesday, winds may increase to near exercise caution levels as a cold front approaches from the north. .Fire Weather... Red flag conditions are not expected over the next several days, although dispersion values will be high this afternoon across a large portion of the inland Florida big bend. .Hydrology... Afternoon sea breeze thunderstorms are expected, however heavy rain will be localized and should not have any impact on area rivers.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 92 73 93 74 94 / 50 30 50 30 40 Panama City 88 76 89 77 90 / 30 20 30 30 30 Dothan 91 73 94 75 94 / 50 30 40 30 40 Albany 93 74 95 75 95 / 40 30 30 20 30 Valdosta 96 72 93 73 93 / 40 40 40 30 40 Cross City 91 72 92 72 93 / 50 20 40 30 30 Apalachicola 89 76 88 76 89 / 30 20 30 20 30 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT/DVD SHORT TERM...CAMP LONG TERM...GODSEY AVIATION...DVD MARINE...CAMP FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...WESTON

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