Area Forecast Discussion
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959 FXUS62 KTAE 272050 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 350 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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The dry cold front that passed through this morning continues to progress on down through Florida. Overall there hasn`t been much in the way of airmass change behind this front, aside from it being just slightly cooler. High pressure at 19z was still located across western Arkansas - but moving eastward. Model guidance is still split on how cool temperatures will be tonight, which does make sense given that the positioning of the surface high pressure area in the NAM/GFS are quite different. Pretty much across the board, the GFS-based MAV MOS is coldest, and this make sense given the GFS has the furthest east position of the surface ridge. Even with the GFS position, the ridge is still too far west for the min temps its predicting in the Fla Big Bend. Moreover, with an airmass that isn`t anomalously cold, this may be just another case where the guidance is exhibiting a cold bias. With that being said, will trend tonight`s overnight temperatures a couple degrees warmer than the consensus of the guidance, except across far western areas where a couple of hours of calm winds should help these areas have a light freeze. .Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]... The relatively cold weather pattern will continue through Saturday morning. With shallow vertical mixing, highs Friday will remain about 10 deg below average (generally in the mid 50s), despite ample sun. The surface ridge will be moving east of our forecast area Friday night, but it still appears close enough for calm winds across much of the region. We expect a light freeze away from the cities and beaches, with plenty of frost. Deep layer ridging will begin to take shape over the Southeast Saturday afternoon, with highs returning to near average (mid 60s). Lows Sunday will only below a few degrees below average, in the lower to mid 40s. .Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]... The deep layer ridging on Sunday and Monday will begin to break down a bit early Tuesday, as a weak 500mb trough ambles slowly eastward. It`s doubtful this trough will have any major influence on our local weather in terms of temperature change or rain chances. Some discrepancy arises between the 12 UTC GFS & ECMWF mid to late week, as the ECMWF brings a cold front through our region while the GFS rebuilds a deep layer ridge. A compromise of these solutions gives a 20% PoP for Wednesday & Wednesday night. Lows will be near average through the period, generally in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Highs will also be near average, in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Friday] VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the period. Winds will be from the northwest 5 to 10 knots with gusts up to 20 knots and should decrease after sunset.
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&& .Marine...
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Advisory conditions will persist beyond 20 NM offshore through Friday morning, followed by a decrease in winds and seas for the weekend.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Cool afternoon highs will offset low dewpoints to keep relative humidity values above critical levels on Friday. On Saturday, return flow will commence and increase dewpoints, with moisture levels well above critical thresholds through next week.
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&& .Hydrology...
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The Ochlockonee River is cresting at Thomasville about 2 feet above action stage. As this water further moves downstream toward Concord and Havana, expect these sites to similarly crest above action stage late on Sunday or early on Monday. The Little River in Srn GA is continuing to rise with a crest expected late this weekend above action stage at Hahira. Water in this and the Withlacoochee will contribute to rises downstream into the middle Suwannee, but these rises will be minor and stay well below action stage. Elsewhere, our river points have crested from earlier rains, with the exception of the lower portions of the Choctawhatchee and Apalachicola Rivers. With no significant rain expected for the next week, no additional river issues are anticipated in the near future.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 34 57 31 66 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 Panama City 39 56 41 65 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dothan 31 55 34 65 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 31 54 32 64 41 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 33 55 32 65 41 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cross City 34 57 31 68 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 40 57 42 64 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal Gulf. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Friday for Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...GODSEY SHORT TERM...FOURNIER LONG TERM...FOURNIER AVIATION...GODSEY MARINE...FOURNIER FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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