Area Forecast Discussion
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479 FXUS62 KTAE 211928 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 328 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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The 1 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a cold front from western KY to northeast OK, and a weak ridge over our forecast area. This front will approach our northwest zones toward dawn, but the dry, stable airmass in place will prevent any rain from developing. Lows will be in the mid 60s. .Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]... A PV anomaly on the back side of a mid-upper level trough in the western Great Lakes will quickly dig southeast - amplifying into a sharp shortwave trough over the Southeast US by 00Z Tuesday. This will aid in driving a surface cold front south into our area tomorrow afternoon. Both 12Z operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF indicate moderate-strong QG forcing tomorrow afternoon, and the GFS has trended towards a more amplified wave (similar to yesterday`s ECMWF solution). With greater deep layer forcing in both models, they now both indicate greater QPF, and we bumped PoPs up into the 30-40% range north of Interstate-10. There should be a narrow ribbon of low-mid level moisture ahead of the advancing front, so showers and thunderstorms should develop in a zone relatively close to the boundary. The GFS and NAM both indicate potential for MLCAPE along the front of 1000-1500 j/kg with effective deep layer shear close to 30 knots. Thus we can`t rule out the possibility of some stronger storms along the front. The front will push through most of the area Monday Night, and then stall and dissipate near the southern portions of our forecast area Tuesday. Clearing skies behind the front, and the arrival of a drier air mass, will lead to cooler lows in the northwest half of the area Monday Night - some upper 50s will even be possible in southeast Alabama. Tuesday will see a continuation of near or slightly below normal temperatures with a small chance of some lingering showers south of I-10. .Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]... A ridge of surface high pressure is still expected to set up from the Northeast into parts of the Great Lakes through much of the extended forecast period. This will set up a long stretch of east to northeast low-level flow in our forecast area and the entire region. Slightly below normal temperatures will continue under that pattern. Isolated to scattered showers are expected Wednesday and Thursday, with increasing rain chances toward the weekend as an upper level trough is forecast to develop along the Gulf coast, and deeper moisture advects back into the area.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Monday] Mostly clear skies and unrestricted VIS will persist into tonight. Some of the MOS indicates the potential for brief, shallow, light fog around dawn, but we aren`t confident enough to mention this in this TAF package. There`s a slight chance of SHRA/TSRA Monday afternoon, but after 18z.
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&& .Marine...
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Much of the period will be dominated by east to northeast flow with occasional SCEC headline conditions for winds of 15-20 knots. Under such flow patterns, winds tend to peak from the overnight hours into the mid-morning hours over the coastal waters.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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No hazardous fire weather conditions are expected for the next several days with moisture slowly on the increase.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Rainfall amounts should be fairly light over the next several days, with some areas possibly remaining dry. Later in the week into next weekend, rain chances will be on the increase, but flooding of mainstem rivers or widespread flash flooding is not expected at this time.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 65 92 66 87 66 / 0 20 20 20 20 Panama City 73 90 68 87 69 / 0 20 20 10 20 Dothan 66 88 60 84 63 / 0 30 10 10 10 Albany 66 88 62 85 63 / 0 40 10 10 10 Valdosta 63 91 64 86 65 / 0 30 20 20 20 Cross City 64 90 66 88 67 / 0 20 20 30 30 Apalachicola 69 88 71 85 72 / 0 10 20 20 20
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...FOURNIER SHORT TERM...LAMERS LONG TERM...LAMERS AVIATION...FOURNIER MARINE...LAMERS FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...LAMERS/GOULD

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