Area Forecast Discussion
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895 FXUS62 KTAE 210029 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 829 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015 .NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
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THE 00 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. DEWPOINTS WERE DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOME OF THIS DRIER AIR WILL BE HEADED OUR WAY BY TOMORROW. ASIDE FROM A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING, EXPECT GRADUALLY CLEARING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
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&& .AVIATION...
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[THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY]...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED AND ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE, WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING AT VLD PRIOR TO SUNRISE WHEN A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SW TO NW OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
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&& .PREV DISCUSSION [422 PM EDT]...
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.SHORT TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]... WE WILL FINALLY SEE A SHORT BREAK FROM THE RAIN AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TUESDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]... THE WET UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS ON THURSDAY AS THE JET STREAM PULLS SEVERAL IMPULSES THROUGH THE AREA. POPS WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. .MARINE... EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT IN THE WESTERN WATERS OVERNIGHT. STARTING TUESDAY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH 2 TO 3 FT SEAS. TUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. .FIRE WEATHER... AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF HEAVY RAINFALL, DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. DESPITE THESE DRIER CONDITIONS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY THURSDAY. .HYDROLOGY... MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING ALONG PARTS OF THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. BRUCE IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY REACH MODERATE FLOOD STAGE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. MINOR FLOODING IS ALSO PREDICTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ON THE KINCHAFOONEE CREEK AT DAWSON. INCREASED RELEASES FROM THE WOODRUFF DAM WILL RESULT IN THE APALACHICOLA RISING ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT BLOUNTSTOWN TONIGHT. WITH THE EXPECTED RELEASES TO PEAK NEAR 60KCFS, THE RIVER LEVEL AT BLOUNTSTOWN WILL BE NEAR 19 FEET BY WEDNESDAY, STILL IN THE MINOR FLOOD CATEGORY.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TALLAHASSEE 62 82 57 85 64 / 20 0 10 10 20 PANAMA CITY 63 76 63 79 67 / 10 0 10 10 30 DOTHAN 56 77 56 82 61 / 10 0 10 10 20 ALBANY 58 78 55 83 60 / 10 0 10 10 20 VALDOSTA 62 79 56 84 62 / 20 0 10 10 20 CROSS CITY 63 82 58 86 65 / 20 0 10 10 20 APALACHICOLA 66 79 63 82 68 / 20 0 10 10 30
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&& .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...GODSEY SHORT TERM...WESTON LONG TERM...WESTON AVIATION...GODSEY MARINE...WESTON FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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