Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
881 FXUS62 KTAE 020643 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 243 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
-- Changed Discussion --
With high pressure in place over the southeast still, the sea-breeze will be the main driver of Tuesday`s weather. The 1000-700 mb flow is light and variable, making it a regime 1 sea breeze day. This pattern typically has isolated offshore convection in the morning and then convection mainly focused in north Florida in the afternoon. With the east coast sea breeze expected to make its way into our area again in the late afternoon, chances for showers and thunderstorms will be higher in our south central Georgia counties as well. Local CAM guidance is forecasting an area of higher instability in the eastern Big Bend, with CAPE values nearing 3000 J/kg in the afternoon. The CAM are showing the potential for higher updraft velocities in this area as well. Some of the thunderstorms this afternoon may have strong, gusty winds with them, particularly in the eastern Big Bend region. Highs today will be seasonably warm, in the mid to upper 90s. .Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]... Upper level high pressure will continue to weaken as a TUTT moves west from the Bahamas across South FL on Wednesday. This feature will then weaken on Thursday. Easterly low to mid level flow will continue to favor evening convection across our eastern zones until around midnight and the potential for isolated strong storms will also linger. More uniform convective coverage is expected on Wednesday with PoPs generally 30-40, or near climo. Similar conditions are forecast for Thursday. Temps will remain a couple of degrees above normal overnight with afternoon highs some 2-4 degrees above climo. .Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]... Although the synoptic pattern will be dominated by weak Upper Level ridging throughout most of the extended period, the positioning of the Bermuda High pressure system at the surface will still allow for an ample supply of deep layer moisture to advect in from the southeast. Additionally, the Upper ridge is expected to weaken and retrograde westward over time, which should trend daytime PoPs at or even above climo levels (generally in the 30-50% range). While high and low temps are not expected to be nearly as warm as they have recently been, they should still average above climo, with highs generally in the lower to a few middle 90s, with lows still in the lower to middle 70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Aviation...
-- Changed Discussion --
[Through 06Z Wednesday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with brief MVFR conditions possible Tuesday with afternoon thunderstorms, which are expected everywhere except DHN.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Marine...
-- Changed Discussion --
A ridge of high pressure will remain north of the waters keeping winds light and out of the east or southeast most of this week. Of course, the sea breeze will veer the winds to onshore each afternoon and evening near the coast.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Fire Weather...
-- Changed Discussion --
Relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds this week, preventing us from reaching red flag criteria.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Hydrology...
-- Changed Discussion --
Rivers in Georgia/Alabama remain very low, with a few points potentially reaching record low levels in the next couple of weeks if the unusually dry conditions continue. Rivers are not quite as low in Florida, although with any heavy rainfall remaining highly localized this week, river flooding is not expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
-- Changed Discussion --
Tallahassee 96 73 94 73 94 / 50 40 40 20 30 Panama City 91 77 92 76 91 / 30 20 30 20 30 Dothan 97 73 95 73 95 / 20 20 40 20 30 Albany 97 73 95 73 94 / 30 30 40 20 30 Valdosta 95 72 94 71 93 / 40 40 40 20 30 Cross City 94 72 93 71 93 / 40 40 40 20 30 Apalachicola 91 76 91 75 90 / 30 20 30 20 30
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...MOORE SHORT TERM...WOOL LONG TERM...GOULD AVIATION...MOORE MARINE...WOOL FIRE WEATHER...MOORE HYDROLOGY...HOLLINGSWORTH

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.