Area Forecast Discussion
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975 FXUS62 KTAE 290116 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 916 PM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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During Monday evening, a large upper trough anchored itself over the ERN most U.S. At the surface, cold front from low off New England SSW across Srn most AL/GA. Earlier, ahead of front and across local area, ample low level moisture aided by strong heating combined with a relatively unstable airmass (thermodynamics quite favorable but kinematics only moderately favorable) but augmented by added forcing from upward vertical motion and vertical shear on Srn periphery of upper trough. Add forcing from ESE-WSW oriented cold front and some mid-level dry air and we had the ingredients for local enhancement and the development of severe storms in the form of cell mergers or linear segments especially near seabreeze boundaries. With roughly WNW uni-directional flow, storms moved ESE. Primary impacts were from damaging winds/downbursts plus small hail and intense lightning. By 9 PM EDT, the focus was across the Big Bend but overall storms were weakening due to the sheared out pre-frontal dynamics and nocturnal stabilization as the cold front pushed further Swd leaving generally isolated convection north of FL border and sct- nmrs convection over FL. A strong storm cant be ruled out there but the severe threat appears to have ended. HI RES guidance indicates that storms across Florida should diminish and largely end after 04z. Front should reach coastal area before sunrise. Will go with 0-60% POPs thru 03z highest across coastal FL, then 10-40% thru 12z highest over waters. In its wake, cooler and drier air will begin spreading SEWD into the region with overnight lows north of the Florida border possibly dropping into the upper 60s with clouds and some winds translating to low to mid 70s over N FL.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Wednesday]...Thunderstorms with MVFR conditions remain possible into 1030 PM EDT and around midnight EDT ahead of a cold front over TLH and ECP respectively. Otherwise, in the wake of cold front...expect VFR conditions rest of the perid.
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&& .Prev Discussion [241 PM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]... By Tuesday morning the cold front will be south of a Valdosta-Tallahassee-Apalachicola line and will continue to push south of the FL Big Bend by late afternoon. This will result in a chance of showers and thunderstorms south of the front through the day, mainly in the Big Bend area, with dry conditions Tuesday night through Wednesday night. The front will usher in cooler and much drier air, resulting in overnight lows that will come close to some long-standing records. For Tuesday night expect low 60s in southern AL and southern GA with mid to upper 60s elsewhere. Similar readings are expected for Wednesday although some locations could be cooler by a degrees or two as drier air continues to work into the area. Daytime highs will range from the upper 80s to the lower and mid 90s. Stayed close to current forecasts for next couple of days. For example at Tallahassee going for lows around 66 Wednesday and Thursday mornings. The record lows here for those dates are: July 30 - 67 (1927) Tuesday night/Wednesday morning July 31 - 63 (1896) Wednesday night/Thursday morning .Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]... There will be continued amplification of the meridional upper level flow as a strong high remains entrenched across the western CONUS with a deep trough across the east. This pattern may finally begin to weaken into early next week. In the meantime our area will remain at the base of the upper level trough under broad cyclonic flow aloft. Any subtle disturbances moving through the trough will help enhance diurnal convection. Another reinforcing surface boundary will sag across the southeast U.S. by Friday with an east-west surface trough setting up along the Gulf coast. This will be the focus for increased convection as we move into the weekend and moisture gradually returns to the area. Friday will be the transition day from dry to increasing moisture with the weekend and early next week looking unsettled with high rain chances. Overnight lows will return to normals in the 70s. Daytime high temperatures will be somewhat suppressed compared to last week with an increase in convection, with readings in the upper 80s and lower 90s. .Marine... Westerly winds will continue at a solid 15-20kt in the exercise caution range with the approach of a cold front from the north. Winds will become offshore behind the front on Tuesday and gradually diminish Tuesday night. Expect light to moderate offshore winds Wednesday through the end of the week. .Fire Weather... Drier conditions will move in on Tuesday in the wake of a front and continue through Thursday, with minimum relative humidity values dropping into the lower 30s. Red flag conditions are possible if conditions get drier than currently anticipated. .Hydrology... Storms moving through the region today could produce isolated rainfall totals around an inch or so, but widespread heavy totals aren`t anticipated. Storm motions are also quick enough to lessen any flood concerns.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 72 93 66 93 66 / 60 10 0 10 0 Panama City 75 92 72 90 72 / 60 10 0 10 0 Dothan 70 91 66 90 65 / 40 0 0 10 0 Albany 69 91 65 91 66 / 40 0 0 10 0 Valdosta 71 92 64 92 67 / 60 10 0 10 0 Cross City 75 93 68 94 69 / 50 30 10 10 0 Apalachicola 76 91 71 90 73 / 50 20 0 10 0 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ Tuesday for Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...BLOCK SHORT TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH LONG TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH AVIATION...BLOCK MARINE...HOLLINGSWORTH FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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