Area Forecast Discussion
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902
FXUS62 KTAE 012011
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
411 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

As expected, a few slow-moving showers and thunderstorms have
developed this afternoon across parts of southwest Georgia, while
the rest of the area has remained dry. Isolated-scattered showers
and storms may linger into the early evening in SW GA before
diminishing. Otherwise, a relatively thick layer of mid-high level
cloud cover has pushed in to the western part of the area a little
earlier than expected. If this persists overnight, it could keep
low temperatures a little warmer than model guidance suggests. At
the same time the lowest dewpoints will be in our Florida and
Alabama zones, and if clearing occurs, the dry air mass could
support cooler low temperatures. Last night that was the case, and
lows in those areas dipped into the mid 60s. Basically if the
cloud cover dissipates we would anticipate lows in the upper 60s,
but if it persists, lows could be in the low-mid 70s instead.


.Short Term [Saturday through Monday]...

The GFS and ECMWF forecast a 500 mb long wave trough from the Ohio
Valley to the northwest Gulf Coast. At the surface, both models
forecast a quasi-stationary, east-west trough (remnants of the cold
front that passed through our forecast area Monday night) across our
region. With increasing deep layer moisture and at least some
synoptic scale lift, there will be a good chance of rain across the
area. The highest PoPs (40-60%) will be in southeast AL & south
GA, where the most favorable combination of deep layer moisture
and synoptic forcing will be. For Saturday, the PoP in FL will
still be below climo values (around 30%) due to some lingering dry
air. However, PoPs in FL will increase to 50-60% Sunday & Monday as
the deep layer moisture increases and becomes more evenly
distributed across the forecast area. Highs will be in the lower to
mid 90s in FL, and around 90 in GA & AL. Lows will be in the 70s.


.Long Term [Monday night through Friday]...

The positive tilted 500 mb trough to our northwest, and the
quasi-stationary surface trough across our forecast area will
weaken on Tuesday. A deep layer ridge, the western extent of the
semi-permanent Bermuda ridge, will build across the FL Peninsula
and eastern Gulf of Mexico for the remainder of the work week.
Daily PoPs will be near average on Tuesday (40-50%), then
a little below-average for the remainder of the week (30%) as
deep layer moisture decreases. High temperatures will be in the
lower 90s Tuesday, then mid 90s Wednesday through Friday. Lows
will be in the 70s.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Saturday] VFR conditions should generally prevail
through the TAF period at all terminals. There may be a few SHRA
near the ABY and VLD terminals prior to 02Z, but a dry forecast is
expected thereafter. There is a small chance of some MVFR-IFR CIGS
pushing into ABY and VLD later tonight from the northeast again
(similar to last night), but confidence is not high enough to
include in the forecast at this time.

&&

.Marine...

Through Monday there will be a broad, weak area of low pressure
across the coastal waters, causing winds to be light and variable
and seas to be 1 ft or less. As the Bermuda ridge begins to build
across the FL Peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico by mid week,
winds will become more well-defined out of the west-southwest
around 10 KT.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Summer-like conditions and increasing rain chances will result in no
significant fire weather concerns over the next few days.

&&

.Hydrology...

Area rivers are currently all below bank full stage, with a few in
low flow stage. Seven-day rainfall totals for the area will be about
normal for this time of year at around 1-1.5". These amounts should
not cause significant rises to our rivers. No flooding is expected
for the next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  94  73  93  72 /  10  30  20  50  30
Panama City   75  90  75  90  75 /  10  20  20  30  30
Dothan        69  91  72  90  72 /  10  40  20  50  30
Albany        72  91  73  90  73 /  30  50  30  50  30
Valdosta      70  96  72  93  71 /  20  40  20  50  30
Cross City    70  93  72  93  72 /  10  30  20  40  30
Apalachicola  73  88  76  89  75 /  10  20  20  30  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...MOORE








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