Area Forecast Discussion
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027
FXUS62 KTAE 191358
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
958 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The large scale split flow pattern this morning remains highlighted
in Srn stream by nearly stacked system over SE GA/NE FL. This
includes well defined mid/upper cutoff low with drier sinking air
wrapping around it. At surface...1011mb occluding low with
diffuse warm front Ewd thru coastal GA. All this reflected in
local obs with NLY flow on backside and onshore flow ahead. Radar
and area obs shows that with mid/upper drying... decreasing
coverage/intensity recent hours and although rain has largely
ended except for NE tier of GA counties...proximity of surface low
continues to favor light drizzle (mainly Ern counties) and low
stratus everywhere.

Through sundown...Mid/upper low should drift Ewd to Atlc seaboard
while surface low drifts ENE to along NE FL/SE GA coast. RAP13
soundings reflect this with lower level flow shifting to the NE
favoring low stratus while flow above becomes Nwd with ample dry
air. However with proximity of surface low...wrap around drizzle
and low clouds may still be a factor especially across NE tier
counties as reflected in area PWATS still hovering near 1 inch at
TLH and even DHN at 00Z. Also 24hr dew point comparison show
little change so any low level drying will be slow. There is a
small chance of thunderstorms N/E of surface low; namely in SE
Big Bend or Ern counties of S/Cntrl GA due to cold air and steep
lapse rates aloft seen on 12z TAE sounding. The chances increase
with any breaks in the overcast and this may even produce a few
strong storms with hail and gusty winds the primary concern. The
threat should end by sundown as low moves further ENE. The low
clouds and drizzle on back side of low should keep temperatures
well below average (mid 60s, as opposed to climo highs in the
lower 80s).

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 12Z Sunday]...Widespread IFR cigs will continue through
this morning. Patchy -DZ and even isolated SHRA are also possible
especially at VLD/ABY. Cigs may finally reach low-end MVFR levels
this at mainly at KECP and KDHN. It`s unlikely that conditions
will get much better than this, even this evening. Scattered SHRA
and (even isolated TSRA near KVLD) will diminish by sunset.
Surface winds will be N around 10 KT. IFR to LIFR cigs are likely
again for much of tonight as well

&&

.Marine...

Latest obs indicate that winds have dropped below advisory levels
and will drop SCA replacing it with SCEC headline. Winds and seas
should continue to gradually drop below headline criteria tonight
with mostly light winds and low seas expected at least for the first
half of next week.

&&

.Hydrology...

Most of the area saw rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches with higher
amounts of 4 to 5.5 inches in Southeast Alabama and Walton and
Holmes counties in Florida. These rainfall amounts in additional to
rainfall from earlier in the week have led to a rise on rivers with
many area rivers in flood stage. The Choctawhatchee at Bruce is
expected to reach major flood stage Sunday evening. Points along the
following rivers are forecast to reach moderate flood stage: St.
Mark`s, Ochlockonee, Chipola, and Shoal rivers.

The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Prev Discussion [639 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
The local area will still be experiencing some impact of the slowly
departing Mid/Upper level shortwave trough tonight through Sunday.
For tonight, we could see a few lingering showers mainly along and
east of Albany to Cross City. Otherwise, we now believe that it will
be mostly cloudy across the region through the remainder of the
weekend due to wrap around moisture associated with this feature.
Although it will be warmer Sunday, the clouds and offshore flow
will keep temps below seasonal levels. Look for deep layer
ridging, clearing skies and seasonal temps to start the work week.


.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
The next frontal system will be fast moving and shift through
Tuesday bringing a chance of rain and isolated thunderstorms.
Drier air will move in Wednesday/Thursday as high pressure builds
in over the area. The Euro has moisture returning Friday and
lingering through the end of the extended period, while the GFS is
a bit slower with arrival of the rain. Blended the two and went
with a slight chance of showers for Friday. Temperatures will be
seasonal with highs in the low 80s and lows in the 50s.


.Fire Weather...
Red Flag conditions are not expected through at least Tuesday.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   66  52  73  52  80 /  30  10   0   0   0
Panama City   67  53  74  57  78 /  20  10   0   0   0
Dothan        67  50  74  54  79 /  20  10   0   0   0
Albany        65  51  73  51  79 /  40  20   0   0   0
Valdosta      66  52  72  51  81 /  40  30   0   0   0
Cross City    71  53  76  52  80 /  30  20   0   0   0
Apalachicola  65  54  72  56  75 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOCK
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...BLOCK
MARINE...BLOCK
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...WESTON






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