Area Forecast Discussion
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137
FXUS62 KTAE 251308
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
910 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.Near Term...This morning`s KTAE sounding shows deep layer northerly
flow. It is also very dry with a PW of only 0.43". After a chilly
start to the day with widespread min temps in the middle 40s,
afternoon temps will warm into the upper 70s to around 80 degrees in
the dry airmass and sunny skies.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
High pressure, at the surface and aloft, will build over the
region tonight through Monday. This will keep the weather dry, and
allow afternoon temperatures to warm back to above normal levels.
Expect high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s on Sunday and the
mid 80s on Monday. The very dry airmass will keep overnight lows
seasonable, with upper 40s to lower 50s tonight and lower to mid
50s Sunday night.

.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
The upper ridge will continue to move east early in the period
with a trough deepening into the Southeast by Thursday and
Friday. A cold front will approach from the northwest on
Wednesday and then slow down. There are still timing differences
with the arrival of the front in our forecast area. However, any
noticeably cooler air will not arrive until after the period. In
the interim, temps will be above normal with highs gradually
falling from the mid 80s on Monday to around 80 on Friday. Lows
will generally be in the mid to upper 50s inland with 60s near
the coast.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Sunday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
period with light northerly winds during the daytime hours.

&&

.Marine...
Light to moderate offshore flow today and tonight will weaken on
Sunday as high pressure builds over the waters. Winds will become
easterly to southeasterly on Monday through the middle of the
week. No headline conditions are expected.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Relative humidity values this afternoon will drop into the mid
20s this afternoon. However, other necessary criteria for red flag
conditions will be met. On Sunday, a slow moistening trend will
begin which will keep relative humidity values above critical
levels through at least the middle of next week.

&&

.Hydrology...
Due to the ongoing dry spell, there are no hydrologic concerns
across the region.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   80  48  83  53  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   79  58  81  61  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        79  54  84  55  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        79  52  85  55  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      79  50  82  53  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    80  45  82  51  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  79  54  79  60  81 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...WOOL





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