Area Forecast Discussion
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682 FXUS62 KTAE 260344 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1044 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2015 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Just made a few tweaks in PoPs (mostly averaging out in the same 20-40 percent range) and added isolated thunderstorms to account for the very vigorous Upper Level shortwave which is racing eastward juts to our north tonight. Any rain which does fall will be quite minimal, and the major impacts will be the very strong and gusty NW winds which will keep lows temps out of the 30s over the interior (when combined with the cloud cover), and also create for a near Gale event over the Coastal waters, which will have to be monitored overnight.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Tuesday] VFR conditions will be the rule through the period, but aviators must be on the lookout for very gusty winds and possible LLWS.
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&& .Prev Discussion [424 PM EST]...
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.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]... By Monday morning, a cold front will be just downstream of the CWA. This means cool, dry northerly winds at the sfc and wrap around moisture lingering in the mid/upper levels. Skies will clear out by Monday afternoon for the southern half of the CWA. Clouds will linger until the evening hours for the AL and GA counties. Winds will be gusty in the afternoon hours (up to 25 mph). Highs will be in the mid to upper 50s on Monday. Northerly winds will continue for the rest of this forecast period due to high pressure over the Midwest. Highs on Tuesday will be in the low 60s. Lows will be in the mid to upper 30s. .Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]... Wednesday and Thursday will be high pressure over the Southeast. Thursday night into Friday morning a cold front will move through bringing a slight chance of rain. Friday afternoon/evening high pressure will build in from the northwest. By Sunday, a developing Gulf Low will bring clouds and a slight chance of rain. Highs will range from the mid 50s to the mid 60s as pressure systems come and go. Lows will range from the mid 30s to the upper 40s as cloud cover varies. .Marine... A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for tonight and tomorrow. Southwesterly winds will shift to northwesterly by Monday morning. Sustained winds will likely reach 25 knots with gusts up to 40 knots possible briefly in the outer waters. By Tuesday morning, winds will be moderate and northerly winds, but may exceed 20 knots again Tuesday afternoon and evening. By Wednesday morning winds will become light. .Fire Weather... Even though afternoon relative humidities will remain fairly low throughout much of the upcoming week, conditions will not yet become favorable enough for any Red Flag concerns. .Hydrology... While many area rivers have risen due to Friday`s rain, only the Aucilla River at Lamont is forecast to reach flood stage in the next few days. It will reach minor flood stage this evening and crest at 54.9 feet on Tuesday. Within the next week, more minor flooding will be possible along the St. Marks, Ochlockonee, and Kinchafoonee rivers, where rises are forecast to be slower.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 43 57 37 64 38 / 20 0 0 0 0 Panama City 48 57 42 63 42 / 10 0 0 0 0 Dothan 41 54 36 61 36 / 10 10 0 0 0 Albany 41 55 35 61 35 / 10 10 0 0 0 Valdosta 43 57 37 63 37 / 20 0 0 0 0 Cross City 44 59 37 64 40 / 40 20 0 0 0 Apalachicola 48 57 41 63 43 / 20 0 0 0 0 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Tuesday for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for Apalachee Bay- Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM- Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM- Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...GOULD SHORT TERM...MCDERMOTT LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT AVIATION...GOULD MARINE...MCDERMOTT FIRE WEATHER...GOULD HYDROLOGY...WESTON

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