Area Forecast Discussion
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948 FXUS62 KTAE 011408 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 908 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2015 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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The 7 am EST regional surface analysis showed a strong ridge along the Piedmont, a decaying, quasi-stationary front from just off the SC coast through north FL, and a developing frontal system across MS. The KTAE sounding showed a nearly-saturated layer from the surface to 850 mb. The 06 UTC GFS forecasts weak isentropic lift at the 295 K and 300 K levels throughout the day, though recent radar trends suggest that this lift is probably too weak to support much rain, and we are only forecasting a slight chance of rain today. The preponderance of NWP guidance (including MOS, HRRR, LAMP, SREF, etc.) forecast the low clouds to remain over our region all day, which will of course affect our high temperature forecast. We expect highs to range from the mid to upper 50s across most of our region, except mid 60s around Cross City where there could be a few breaks in the overcast.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12Z Monday] Judging from the deep moist layer below 10k ft in the 12 UTC KTAE sounding, as well as the latest NWP guidance, the low ceilings this morning are likely to remain throughout today and tonight. We expect IFR to LIFR cigs today and overnight. MVFR Vis is likely as well, except for periods of IFR Vis this morning. IFR Vis is likely to return overnight. Light NE winds (generally less than 10 KT) will be the rule through tonight.
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&& .Prev Discussion [325 AM EST]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]... Southerly flow becomes more established at the surface along with a building mid/upper ridge centered over the southern GOMEX. A weak impulse will pass to the north of the area allowing for only a slight chance of showers across our northern areas. Though mostly cloudy skies are expected, the building ridge and southerly flow will help push afternoon temps into the 70s for both days. .Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]... The upper ridging shifts east on Wednesday with showers and possibly thunderstorms spreading across the local region in advance of an approaching cold front. The cold front will pass through on Thursday stalling over or just south of our coastal waters on Friday. This boundary may bring more rain to the region over the weekend as the next impulse translates across Texas and then the Gulf coastal states. Temps will be above seasonal levels with highs in the mid to upper 70s Wednesday with below normal temps thereafter. .Marine... Borderline advisory conditions will continue through daybreak this morning before quickly diminishing as high pressure weakens across the Mid Atlantic. Generally light winds and low seas are expected through mid week. By late Wednesday, onshore flow will increase ahead of an approaching front and then quickly shift offshore by Thursday behind a cold front. Advisory conditions are likely behind this cold front Thursday afternoon. .Fire Weather... Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next few days. Lowering inversion heights (and thus, mixing heights) today will limit smoke dispersion below normal daytime levels. Over the following few nights, some fog is likely and some areas of dense fog will be possible. The fog potential is likely to contribute to elevated LVORI values over much of the area. .Hydrology... Area streamflows remain above normal. The Ochlockonee and Withlacoochee Rivers are now in action stage at each of the forecast points. Minor flooding is possible for the Withlacoochee River at Valdosta early tomorrow. No significant rainfall is expected for the next few days, so no additional river flooding is anticipated at this time.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 59 54 76 58 76 / 20 10 10 10 10 Panama City 61 55 69 59 70 / 10 10 20 10 10 Dothan 56 51 72 58 77 / 20 10 20 20 20 Albany 54 49 71 57 77 / 30 10 20 20 20 Valdosta 57 53 76 58 77 / 30 10 10 10 10 Cross City 64 56 78 59 77 / 20 0 10 10 10 Apalachicola 61 57 69 60 71 / 10 10 10 10 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...FOURNIER SHORT TERM...BARRY LONG TERM...BARRY AVIATION...FOURNIER MARINE...BARRY FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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