Area Forecast Discussion
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981 FXUS62 KTAE 260139 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 939 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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With a complex system of boundaries lingering in the area, the showers and storms have continued to persist a little bit longer each successive evening. Made some slight adjustments to the 00 to 03 UTC PoPs where the focus of the convection has shifted to the FL Panhandle, with isolated showers and storms lingering across the region elsewhere. Cut these back to 20% area wide after 03 UTC, and left the earlier fcst 06 to 12 UTC PoPs (generally 20% for the coastal waters and N FL) as is. Also over the marine area, did raise winds and seas just a bit as the pressure gradient has tightened slightly over the nearshore waters.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Sunday] There is a possibility of brief and patchy fog with MVFR vsbys after 09z at all sites. This may be accompanied by IFR cigs at ECP, TLH and VLD. All sites return to VFR shortly after daybreak with scattered convection developing in the afternoon. Went with VCTS at all but ABY as the cold front may slip to the south before convection develops.
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&& .Prev Discussion [237 PM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]... The persistent weakness that has been in place across the Eastern CONUS for the last few days will be replaced by a mid level ridge building into the region. This will result in slightly lower rain chances and warmer afternoon temperatures through the weekend. Highs by Sunday will be in the mid 90s with a few locations possibly reaching the upper 90s. Heat indices Sunday afternoon will likely be in the 100 to 105 degree range. .Long Term [Monday Through Friday]... Model guidance is in reasonably good agreement that the pattern across the Eastern CONUS will amplify considerably at the start of the period as a large trough moves through the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic States. For several runs now, the models have all indicated the surface cold front making it through most if not all of our forecast area by Tuesday. Thus, expect a couple of days of below normal temps with little or no rain chances. The bulk of the colder air should remain confined in the Tennessee Valley and areas to the north though Wednesday and Thursday morning lows will drop into the 60s across Srn Alabama/Georgia. By Thursday, the pattern stalls or even retrogrades slightly with the 500 mb trough axis aligned from the Southern Appalachians through our forecast area. As deep layer moisture begins to increase on Thursday, rain chances will increase. Afternoon temperatures will still remain below normal through this portion of the long term period due to expected cloud cover, though overnight lows will return to seasonal norms. .Marine... Southwesterly flow will continue over the marine area through the weekend. On Monday, westerly flow will increase to cautionary levels ahead of an approaching cold front. This boundary will move through the marine area on Tuesday with light offshore winds expected in its wake. .Fire Weather... Red flag conditions are not expected over the next several days, although dispersion values will be high this afternoon and Saturday across most inland areas. .Hydrology... Afternoon sea breeze thunderstorms are expected, however heavy rain will be localized and should not have any impact on area rivers.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 73 94 76 94 76 / 30 30 10 20 10 Panama City 76 91 78 91 79 / 20 30 10 20 10 Dothan 73 96 75 95 76 / 30 20 10 10 10 Albany 74 96 75 95 76 / 30 20 10 20 10 Valdosta 72 95 73 97 75 / 30 30 10 20 10 Cross City 72 92 74 93 74 / 30 30 10 20 10 Apalachicola 76 90 78 90 79 / 20 30 10 20 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...GOULD SHORT TERM...GODSEY LONG TERM...GODSEY AVIATION...BARRY MARINE...GODSEY FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT HYDROLOGY...WESTON

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