Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
437 FXUS62 KTAE 151339 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 939 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
-- Changed Discussion --
A noticeably cooler, drier airmass is in place in the wake of a cold front. The 12Z TAE sounding had an 850mb temperature of 8C, which is beyond 2 standard deviations below normal for us for October. The sounding reflected the drier air as well, with a PWAT of 0.45" (down from 2.14" at 12Z yesterday!), which is below the 25th percentile for October. With so much dry air aloft, skies will stay mostly clear today. High temperatures will range from the mid 70s in our northwestern zones to upper 80s in our southeastern zones. Winds will pick up a bit early in the afternoon to around 10 MPH, with gusts of 15-20 MPH possible, particularly in southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Prev Discussion [305 AM EDT]...
-- Changed Discussion --
.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]... Deep cut-off low over the Ohio Valley will slowly migrate northeastward through Thursday keeping deep northwesterly flow in place across the forecast area. At the surface, high pressure over the western Gulf today will slide eastward through Friday. With a very dry airmass in place (PWAT below 1 inch), no precip is expected. Temperatures will be close to normal, with highs in the upper 70s for Thursday and lower 80s for Friday, and lows around 50 the next two nights. .Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]... Broad troughing, or nearly zonal flow aloft, will prevail locally through the extended range. At the surface, high pressure will remain intact, with no rain in the forecast. Highs will hold steady in the low 80s, which is near average for this time of year. Lows, will be slightly below normal, in the lower to middle 50s. .Aviation... [Through 12Z Thursday] Other than a few lingering clouds, skies have mostly cleared out overnight. VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period with westerly winds. .Marine... Offshore flow near exercise caution conditions will continue today as high pressure builds over the western Gulf. Conditions will improve tonight and Thursday with light winds and minimal seas continuing through the weekend. .Fire Weather... Although a drier air mass is expected across the region, especially Wednesday to Friday, RH values are not expected to fall to critical levels. RH values on Friday may approach red flag thresholds in the western part of our area, but winds should have decreased sufficiently such that red flag conditions are not expected. .Hydrology... Several area rivers have shown sharp rises in response to the rain that fell over the past 24-36 hours. However, prior to this rain event river levels were so low that it is unlikely any of our forecast points will reach minor flood stage. In fact, only a few points along the Shoal and Choctawhatchee rivers are forecast to remain in, or reach action stage.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
-- Changed Discussion --
Tallahassee 78 50 79 48 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 Panama City 77 56 78 56 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dothan 75 50 77 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 76 50 77 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 77 50 77 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cross City 79 50 79 50 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 77 57 77 55 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
-- Changed Discussion --
FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ NEAR TERM...MOORE SHORT TERM...CAMP LONG TERM...HARRIGAN AVIATION...LAMERS MARINE...CAMP FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.