Area Forecast Discussion
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410 FXUS62 KTAE 252025 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 325 PM EST Wed Feb 25 2015 ...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE AREA... .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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A low pressure system over the Gulf will move through the CWA this evening. As of 1 pm EST the warm front is located offshore the Panhandle Gulf Coast. The warm front will move through the area later this afternoon, bringing warm, moist air to the southern half of the CWA. This will be the area where a line of thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon as a cold front approaches. Heavy rain is likely ahead of the warm front this afternoon in the GA/AL counties. Heavy rain is likely for the FL Panhandle and Big Bend as this cold front moves through this evening. Rain will end from west to east overnight as the cold front passes. There will be a steep temp gradient overnight with lows in the upper 30s in the northwest to the lower 50s in the southeast Big Bend. Severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. The primary threat will be damaging winds and the possibility of a tornado or two. The FL Panhandle and Big Bend will have the best chance for severe weather since that is where the warm sector will be once the warm front moves onshore. The AL counties and most of the GA counties will likely be too stable to see strong thunderstorms. The exception perhaps the southernmost GA counties. The track of the low pressure will be particularly important to the severe risk as that will largely determine how much instability makes it inland from the coast. 0-6KM shear will be very strong this evening in the 60-80 KT range. 0-1KM shear is forecast to be up to 50 KT ahead of the cold front in FL. Currently, we expect the best chance of severe weather in a corridor stretching across Gulf, Liberty, Franklin, and Wakulla counties starting late this afternoon and lasting into the evening hours. It is in this area where there is the best model agreement on a narrow wedge of instability making it inland and overlapping with the very strong shear values. .Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]... Low pressure will be off the Carolinas by early Thursday morning, with high pressure building into the local forecast area. Temperatures will continue to be below normal on Thursday, with highs mostly in the lower to mid 50s. After a cool start to Friday, with lows in the mid 30s northwest to lower 40s southeast, only a modest warmup is expected by afternoon. Sprawling 1040mb high pressure center over the midwest will limit the warming as northerly winds help to reinforce the cool airmass. .Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]... Sprawling surface high over the midwest will continue to limit the warmup through Saturday, with temperatures remaining several degrees below normal. There may also be a few showers along the old frontal boundary in the southeastern Big Bend. A more substantial warmup will begin on Sunday as an upper ridge begins to build over the Gulf and the low level flow begins to veer to the east. May also see a chance of rain return to the forecast as the stalled front to the south moves back to the north as a warm front. By Monday, temperatures will be back to near normal levels, with highs pushing into the 70s.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Thursday] Conditions will deteriorate this afternoon as a Low approaches from the Gulf. MVFR and IFR ceilings this afternoon will worsen as rain moves in this evening. IFR conditions are likely this evening and into the overnight hours. VFR conditions will return late tomorrow morning as the low moves out. Moderate to heavy rain is expected at all terminals this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms are likely at TLH, VLD and ECP. Some storms may be severe. Gusty winds ahead of the front are likely at TLH, VLD and ECP.
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&& .Marine...
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Strong southerly winds will shift to the northwest from west to east overnight as low pressure moves across the coastal waters. May see a few gusts to gale force this evening, especially as a line of strong thunderstorms moves across the waters, but expect duration to be short so will maintain Small Craft Advisory. Winds and seas will diminish below headline criteria on Thursday as high pressure builds in behind the low. However, conditions will return to exercise caution levels by Saturday.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Widespread rainfall of generally 1 to 2 inches will keep Wet Flag conditions going throughout the CWA for the remainder of today and tonight. Cooler and drier air will initially work into the region behind this low pressure system, with a warming trend expected on Sunday. However, dewpoints will also increase with the warmup, keeping any potential for Red Flag conditions at bay for the foreseeable future.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Widespread rainfall totals of 1-2 inches are expected through tonight across the area with localized amounts in excess of 3 inches possible. These totals will cause rises along our area rivers and bring several sites along the Kinchafoonee Creek and the Choctawhatchee, Ochlockonee, Aucilla, and Upper Withlacoochee Rivers into action stage. The Withlacoochee River at Valdosta and Kinchafoonee Creek at Dawson are both likely to crest just below minor flood stage by the end of the week, but could crest higher and earlier if rainfall totals end up being higher than currently forecast.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 43 55 38 60 40 / 100 10 10 0 10 Panama City 44 55 40 57 42 / 90 0 0 0 10 Dothan 37 51 35 53 35 / 100 0 10 0 10 Albany 39 53 36 56 37 / 100 10 10 0 10 Valdosta 44 55 41 60 41 / 100 10 10 0 10 Cross City 53 63 42 63 44 / 100 20 10 0 20 Apalachicola 47 56 43 59 46 / 100 10 0 0 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Thursday for Apalachee Bay- Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT SHORT TERM...CAMP LONG TERM...CAMP AVIATION...MCDERMOTT MARINE...CAMP FIRE WEATHER...GOULD HYDROLOGY...MOORE

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