Area Forecast Discussion
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604 FXUS62 KTAE 120757 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 357 AM EDT Sat Apr 12 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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A surface ridge of high pressure will remain in place today, keeping conditions mild and pleasant. Afternoon highs are expected to top out in the lower to middle 80s away from the immediate beaches this afternoon. A sea breeze is expected this afternoon given the cool shelf waters and land temps in the 80s, keeping the beaches a bit cooler. .Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]... Tonight...a large scale pattern change begins with increasing amplification and marked by a positively tilted trough over Wrn states and weak ridging over Ern states with very weak gradient over Gulf region. At surface...persistent high off Carolina Coast with a ridge Swwd across Gulf region. This translates to generally onshore flow sfc-H7 with WLY above aloft. Increasing low level moisture brings area PWATS up to around 0.9 inches and provide a favorable environment for at least patchy fog and lower ceilings. This will maintain inland lows in the mid 50s. Sunday and Sunday night...Patchy fog should linger past sunrise. The longwave pattern will undergo further amplification/strengthening as Ern ridge pushed offshore in response to Wrn trough deepening Ewd. Broad cyclonic flow evolves across Cntrl Conus with multiple shortwaves serving to deepen trough thru the night. This generates cyclogenesis over the Plains with cold front extending Swd from LWR MS Valley into TX by sundown weakening and shunting SE ridge back into Atlc. Area soundings show that mid/upper flow backs to SWLY while lower level Sly flow strengthens. Rainfall should hold off until Monday except for possibly small chance of rain Wrn/SE counties towards sunrise. With local area in warm sector ahead of next system... expect inland highs from 81 NW to 85 east. Very mild lows around 60 with a good chance of fog/or low clouds developing after midnight. Monday...Longwave trough deepens as it pivots ewd. Closed low forms over Srn Hudson bay and vigorous shortwave moves across SE region. Assocd surface low moves from Plains to NE region with cold front approaching Wrn counties by sundown. Ahead of cold front...guidance implies that a line of convection will develop which would precede front and move across during the day. PWATS increase to about 1.5 inches with local gradient further tightening for fast SW steering flow. At this time...models differ so confidence of chances of timing and possibility of severe as well as max temps not high. GFS noticeably faster and somewhat weaker. If ECMWF verifies then chances for strong to severe weather increase. Forecast will split the difference. Expect highs from near 80 N to 84 SE. 60-30% NW-SE POP shwrs/tstms gradient. Will keep out any enhanced wording for now. .Long Term [Monday Night Through Friday]... Guidance is in general agreement with a trough developing over the central portion of the country early next week. However, there are still timing/strength difference in the handling of the two main shortwaves that will be responsible for generating the trough. The GFS is a little weaker and keeps the best instability and shear out of phase through Tuesday, resulting in a lesser severe threat. The 00z ECMWF was a little more bullish on the potential for strong to severe storms. Regardless of the severe threat, it does appear that another round of significant rainfall will impact the region into Tuesday. Thereafter, the pattern is forecast to become a bit less progressive, with a ridge building off the east coast and surface high pressure nosing down the eastern seaboard. This will result in a more easterly to northeasterly flow pattern, and the potential for a few showers to move back into the region late in the work week.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 06Z Sunday] Brief patchy fog is possible at all terminals early this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the forecast period with generally SE winds near or below 10 kt this afternoon and mostly clear skies expected across our region.
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&& .Marine...
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Benign conditions will persist through tonight as high pressure remains in place. By late Sunday into Monday onshore winds and waves will begin increasing ahead of our next weather system. Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead and along a cold front expected to cross late Monday. In its wake...advisory level offshore winds and seas are expected Tuesday night into Wednesday.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Low level moisture will continue to slowly increase through the weekend with RH values remaining above critical levels. Dispersion values greater than 75 are possible across portions of the area this afternoon, mainly west of a Tallahassee to Albany line away from the coast. Dispersions near 75 are possible again on Sunday afternoon.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Most rivers have reached their peak and should begin to fall. The only exceptions should the Choctawhatchee River at Bruce and Ochlockonee River at Havana. A new flood warning was also issued for the Withlacoochee at Valdost. The next chance of rainfall is on Monday into Tuesday. The system currently appears progressive enough to prevent excessive rainfall, but rainfall amounts may be enough to temporarily halt some of the river falls. The most up to date, specific river forecast information can be found on the AHPS page at http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 83 56 83 61 82 / 0 0 0 10 40 Panama City 78 63 76 65 76 / 0 0 0 10 50 Dothan 82 57 83 61 79 / 0 0 0 10 60 Albany 84 56 83 61 80 / 0 0 0 10 60 Valdosta 85 55 84 61 82 / 0 0 0 10 40 Cross City 85 55 83 61 82 / 0 0 10 20 30 Apalachicola 77 64 74 65 76 / 0 0 0 10 40
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...DVD SHORT TERM...BLOCK LONG TERM...CAMP AVIATION...DVD MARINE...BLOCK FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...BLOCK

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