Area Forecast Discussion
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957 FXUS62 KTAE 140004 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 804 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015 .NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
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SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING REVEALS A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES AHEAD OF THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WEST TEXAS. ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR APRIL. THE RADAR MOSAIC REVEALS SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA WITH A LARGE AREA OF RAIN MOVING EAST THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TOWARDS THE AREA THAT RECEIVED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS AREA OF RAIN IS MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE AND HAS SHOWN SOME WEAKENING TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 00Z. FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...EXPECT AN OVERALL DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AFTER 06Z WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...GENERALLY BETWEEN 65 AND 70.
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&& .AVIATION...
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[THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY] DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 14Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
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&& .PREV DISCUSSION [416 PM EDT]...
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.SHORT TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]... UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF SMALL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL KEEP CONDITIONS CLOUDY AND RAINY IN MOST AREAS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RAIN AND BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO SOME AREAS. THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW, AND THE MAIN FOCUS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE POTENTIAL FLOODING. EXPECT ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE PERIOD. .LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]... THE UNSETTLED TREND CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH NEAR AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURES. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN WE WILL FINALLY BREAK OUT OF THE UNSETTLED PATTERN. THE GFS HAS A SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH AND BREAK US OUT OF THE PATTERN ON SATURDAY, BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS US LOCKED IN THE UNSETTLED PATTERN UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE`LL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE MODELS AS NEW RUNS BECOME AVAILABLE. .MARINE... OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. .FIRE WEATHER... RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH HIGH RH EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD STAY HIGH. .HYDROLOGY... HEAVY RAINFALL LAST NIGHT AFFECTED JACKSON COUNTY WITH TOTALS AS HIGH AS 11" NEAR COTTONDALE WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE RECEIVING AROUND 2-3". TODAY, WE`VE BEEN FORTUNATE THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE SO FAR BEEN OFFSHORE, BUT THE NEARLY STATIONARY STORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND COULD CAUSE SOME FLASH FLOODING ISSUES SHOULD THEY MOVE ASHORE. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 8 PM EST TONIGHT FOR THE FL PANHANDLE COUNTIES BECAUSE OF THIS POTENTIAL. IN TERMS OF RIVER FLOODING, OUR RIVERS STARTED THIS EVENT AT PARTICULARLY LOW LEVELS, SO NO FLOODING IS FORECAST FROM THE RAINFALL AT THIS TIME, THOUGH A FEW RIVER SITES MAY RISE TO ACTION STAGE AS A RESULT OF THIS RAINFALL.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TALLAHASSEE 68 85 69 84 68 / 40 40 30 60 40 PANAMA CITY 71 79 72 78 70 / 50 40 50 60 40 DOTHAN 66 83 67 81 65 / 60 60 60 70 50 ALBANY 66 84 67 82 65 / 60 60 40 70 50 VALDOSTA 67 84 66 84 67 / 50 50 20 60 50 CROSS CITY 68 85 67 85 68 / 30 30 20 40 40 APALACHICOLA 72 82 73 81 71 / 40 30 30 60 30
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&& .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...DVD SHORT TERM...MERRIFIELD/WESTON LONG TERM...MERRIFIELD/WESTON AVIATION...DVD MARINE...WESTON FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...MOORE

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