Area Forecast Discussion
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772 FXUS62 KTAE 180155 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 855 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2014 ...Winter-like Airmass Moving into the Tri-State Area... .Update...
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Skies are clearing from west to east with the cold front now well to our south and east. Made minor adjustments to sky grids otherwise no changes. .Previous Discussion [320 PM EST] .Near Term [Through Tonight]... At 1 pm EST, a strong cold front extended from just west of Fitzgerald, GA, to Cape San Blas, FL. It was translating east-southeastward near 20 MPH, and will clear our entire forecast area by sunset. Deep moist convection well ahead of this front has moved off to our east and southeast, ending the threat of severe storms. The lingering light to moderate rain ahead of the front will taper off quickly from northwest to southeast for the remainder of this afternoon. An unusually deep 500 mb trough will become established over the eastern CONUS tonight, with strong cold air advection developing across our region. Despite surface winds remaining near 10 MPH overnight, temperatures will still reach freezing across the northwest two-thirds of our forecast area. The combination of cold temperatures and brisk winds will drive wind chill readings into the 15 to 20 deg range within a few hours either side of daybreak. Actual low temperatures will range from the mid 20s (northwest) to mid to upper 30s (FL beaches and Cross City area). .Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]... A very cold airmass will continue to push into the region on Tuesday as arctic high pressure builds towards the Deep South. Highs will generally only be in the mid to upper 40s, except for a few 50s along the coast and in the southeastern Big Bend. The center of the high will settle over south central Georgia by Wednesday morning, creating ideal radiational cooling conditions over the forecast area. This will allow temperatures to plummet into lower 20 across the entire forecast area, with a few upper teens possible in the inland Panhandle, SE Alabama and SW Georgia. The Wednesday record low for Tallahassee (25 degrees set in 2008) is in serious jeopardy. A rare early season hard freeze appears very likely at this time. The airmass will be slow to modify through Thursday, with highs on Wednesday only getting into the lower to mid 50s, and lows on Thursday morning falling into the upper 20s to lower 30s. .Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]... Expect to see a steady moderation in temperatures from Thursday through the weekend as the upper flow becomes zonal and then southwesterly. Highs should approach 70 degrees once again by Saturday. Rain chances will increase for Sunday into Monday as an upper trough digs into the the Southern Plains.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Wednesday] Skies are clearing and we expect VFR conditions throughout the TAF period. Winds will remain around 10 knots overnight and then in the 10 to 15 knot range with gusts around 20 knots on Tuesday.
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&& .Marine... Offshore flow will increase through tonight in the wake of the cold front. Expect frequent gust to gale force over the offshore waters and Small Craft Advisory conditions elsewhere. The gale conditions should ease by mid-morning on Tuesday, with winds continuing to diminish through Tuesday night. Winds and seas should then remain below headline criteria through the end of the work week. && .Fire Weather... A significantly colder and drier airmass will settle into the Tri-state region the next few days behind the exiting strong cold front. Although high temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will be well below normal, dew points ranging from the single digits to the teens will result in minimum relative humidity values in the upper teens to the lower 20 percent range. Red Flag conditions are likely across our southeast Alabama counties both Tuesday and Wednesday. It will be just as dry across our Georgia and Florida counties both days but Red Flag conditions are not expected at this time. && .Hydrology... Rainfall amounts have generally been below one inch across the area today. However, a few locations from Washington County Florida into SW Georgia received closer to 2 inches. With river levels running quite low ahead of this system, only minor rises are anticipated from these rainfall amounts. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 33 49 20 55 27 / 0 0 0 0 0 Panama City 35 50 29 54 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dothan 27 46 22 53 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 28 47 20 54 28 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 33 48 21 54 27 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cross City 39 52 22 56 28 / 20 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 37 51 28 55 37 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...Hard Freeze Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie- Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon- Liberty-Madison-South Walton-Washington. Freeze Warning from 1 AM EST /Midnight CST/ to 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Tuesday for Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes- Inland Bay-Inland Walton-Jackson-Liberty-South Walton- Washington. Wind Chill Advisory from 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ to 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ Tuesday for Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes- Inland Bay-Inland Walton-Jackson-Washington. GA...Hard Freeze Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt- Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes- Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas- Tift-Turner-Worth. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Tuesday for Baker-Ben Hill- Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty- Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell- Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth. Wind Chill Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EST Tuesday for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty- Early-Grady-Irwin-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph- Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth. AL...Hard Freeze Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston. Freeze Warning from Midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Tuesday for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston. Wind Chill Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CST Tuesday for Coffee- Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston. Red Flag Warning all zones Tuesday afternoon. Fire Weather Watch all zones Wednesday afternoon. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Tuesday for Apalachee Bay-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday for Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM. Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Tuesday for Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM- Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM. && $$ UPDATE...BARRY NEAR TERM...FOURNIER SHORT TERM...CAMP LONG TERM...CAMP AVIATION...FOURNIER MARINE...CAMP FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER HYDROLOGY...CAMP is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.