Area Forecast Discussion
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598 FXUS62 KTAE 272024 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 424 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 .NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
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COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT RECENTLY PASSED THROUGH VALDOSTA AND NOW STRETCHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BIG BEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THEN NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST AND ALONG THE COAST. .SHORT TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]... AFTER A CHILLY START IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES APPROXIMATELY 10-15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS, THE WARMING TREND WILL BE FAIRLY SLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE AROUND 60 IN NORTHERN LOCATIONS OF THE CWA WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA, SOUTHERN ALABAMA, AND FLORIDA WITH DECENT SUNSHINE AROUND. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. CURRENT THINKING PLACES THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND GEORGIA BORDER WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHEAST GOM. THIS WOULD MAKE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THE COLDEST. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY RECORDS TO FALL, MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF TALLAHASSEE WILL SEE NEAR-RECORD LOWS AROUND OR JUST BELOW 40 DEGREES. THE ONLY UNCERTAINTY RESIDES IN THE AMOUNT OF ANY HIGH CLOUDS, IF ANY, THAT COULD PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THERE IS ALSO SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY AS THE EURO IS SLOWER MOVING THIS RIDGE SOUTHEAST AND WOULD NOT ALLOW IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUNDAY AS EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BEGINS TO ESTABLISH. .LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]... AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK A WEAK SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WASHINGTON STATE AREA) WILL PROGRESS EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON MONDAY THIS WILL HELP GENERATE WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES. ALONG WITH THIS FEATURE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA AND STALL GIVING OUR AREA COOL CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AFTER THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY A CUT- OFF LOW WILL EJECT EASTWARDS AWAY FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL HELP GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUDNERSTORM LATER IN THE WEEK AS SOME CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE ONGOING IN THE WESTERN GULF.
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&& .AVIATION...
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[THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY] MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET.
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&& .MARINE...
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A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL AREA WATERS. WINDS OF 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL 30 KNOT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. WITH SEAS REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN REMAIN LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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DRIER AIR IS ON TAP THIS WEEKEND. WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP TO CRITICAL LEVELS...FUELS WILL BE TOO MOIST TO ALLOW RED FLAG CRITERIA TO BE MET. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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ALL AREA RIVERS REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TALLAHASSEE 40 63 42 67 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 PANAMA CITY 47 62 46 65 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 DOTHAN 39 60 39 65 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 ALBANY 38 58 38 63 48 / 0 0 0 0 10 VALDOSTA 41 62 40 67 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 CROSS CITY 42 65 41 68 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 APALACHICOLA 45 64 47 64 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
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&& .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL GULF. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...CAMP SHORT TERM...LAMERS/DOBBS LONG TERM...LAMERS/DOBBS AVIATION...CAMP MARINE...LAMERS/DOBBS FIRE WEATHER...WOOL HYDROLOGY...LAMERS/WESTON

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