Area Forecast Discussion
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567
FXUS62 KTAE 151412
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1012 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS KEEPING A TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S IN MANY AREAS. VAPOR IMAGERY
FROM THIS MORNING SHOWS A MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING INTO THE REGION.
THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO GENERATE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IN FACT, A FEW STORMS HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA THIS MORNING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NOW ABOVE 1.7 INCHES, BUT
FORTUNATELY STORM MOTIONS TODAY SHOULD BE AROUND 15 KNOTS TO THE
NE. HOWEVER, EVEN THE STORMS THIS MORNING HAVE GENERATED LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN JUST A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME, SO IF A LARGER
CLUSTER OF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE TODAY, SOME MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
A CONCERN WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER BACK TO THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
HEATING AND ALONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD LEAD TO GOOD COVERAGE
OF STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO HAVE INCREASED POPS AT LEAST
10 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD AND ADDED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY]...CEILINGS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT. MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES AFTER ABOUT 16Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF STORMS BY 18Z. WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA AT
ALL SITES MAINLY AFTER 19Z. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 04Z WITH
A RETURN OF IFR CEILINGS LIKELY BEFORE SUNRISE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [316 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WITH THE LOCAL AREA REMAINING IN DEEP MOIST WEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS COMBINED WITH A FEW EMBEDDED IMPULSES AND
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS WILL KEEP POPS ATYPICALLY HIGH (60-70%) FOR
APRIL WHICH IS ON AVERAGE OUR DRIEST MONTH. THIS APRIL IS ALSO ON
TRACK TO BE OUR HOTTEST ON RECORD AND TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS STATES WILL
GRADUALLY OPEN UP AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ZONAL
FLOW IN PLACE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY WITH MUCH
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


.MARINE...

LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.


.FIRE WEATHER...

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH HIGH RH EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY AND FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD STAY HIGH.


.HYDROLOGY...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE RESULTED IN SOME SHARP
RISES ON THE CHIPOLA RIVER WITH RISES ALSO NOTED ON THE
CHOCTAWHATCHEE, PEA AND SHOAL RIVERS. FOR THE MOST PART, AREA
RIVERS WILL REMAIN BELOW ACTION STAGE. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM JUST A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST BIG
BEND TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THESE
TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON AREA
RIVERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   80  68  81  67  82 /  80  40  70  50  60
PANAMA CITY   77  68  78  68  78 /  80  30  60  50  50
DOTHAN        77  65  77  62  78 /  70  50  60  60  60
ALBANY        79  65  77  62  77 /  70  60  60  50  60
VALDOSTA      80  65  80  63  81 /  80  50  60  50  60
CROSS CITY    84  67  82  67  83 /  60  40  70  50  60
APALACHICOLA  78  71  79  71  78 /  80  30  50  50  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...WOOL



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