Area Forecast Discussion
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976 FXUS62 KTAE 261521 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1021 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2015 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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As a strong area of low pressure departs the region today, high pressure will build in its wake. Residual low level moisture is expected to keep conditions mostly cloudy through the day. Highs will range from the lower 50s across the northwest to the lower 60s across the southeast big bend.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12Z Friday]... As an area of low pressure moves away from the area, residual low level moisture is expected to allow for low clouds to persist through much of the period with MVFR ceilings.
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&& .Marine...
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With 14Z buoy and tower observations still indicating advisory level seas as high as 10 feet about 60NM offshore, the Small Craft Advisory was extended until 18Z for the outer waters. Winds have diminished below SCA criteria. SCEC level winds will likely return tonight with breezy northeast to east winds persisting into the weekend.
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&& .Prev Discussion [310 AM EST]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]... The trend over the short term period will be a gradually building ridge aloft (500mb heights increase 130m), while the area remains situated on the southern periphery of an east coast surface high pressure. This will keep the weather mostly dry but with cooler- than-normal temperatures. However, it does appear most locations will avoid overnight freezes. Small rain chances return on Saturday as a few rain showers will be possible in the southeast half of the area as return flow and low-mid level moisture increase. .Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]... By next week, the ridge aloft should be firmly established over the Southeast with the east coast surface ridge eroding. This will set up more of a southerly component to the return flow and allow temperatures to finally increase. Depending on eventual cloud cover, a few locations could hit the 80 degree mark early next week. The forecast calls for mostly mid-upper 70s in the Monday to Wednesday timeframe right now. Some small rain chances are in the forecast as models do generate some light QPF, however the primary QG forcing is currently expected to remain to our north and west. .Fire Weather... Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next several days. .Hydrology... A large swath of 1-2 inches of rain fell across the area. For the most part, rivers will remain below minor flood stage, although several points will reach action stage. One exception may be the Kinchafoonee Creek at Dawson, which could reach minor flood stage this weekend.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 56 37 61 40 63 / 10 10 0 10 20 Panama City 55 39 57 43 61 / 10 0 0 10 20 Dothan 51 34 54 36 58 / 10 10 0 10 10 Albany 53 35 56 37 56 / 10 10 0 10 20 Valdosta 56 39 60 41 60 / 10 10 0 10 30 Cross City 61 41 64 45 66 / 10 10 10 10 40 Apalachicola 57 42 59 47 63 / 10 0 0 10 30
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...RIP CURRENT RISK until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT SHORT TERM...LAMERS LONG TERM...LAMERS AVIATION...MCDERMOTT MARINE...MCDERMOTT FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...DVD

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