Area Forecast Discussion
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133 FXUS62 KTAE 250800 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 300 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2015 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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Mostly sunny skies during the morning hours will give way to partly cloudy skies during the afternoon as a cold front approaches from the northwest. However, any shower activity is expected to hold off until tonight. Afternoon high temperatures will likely reach the lower to middle 60s across the area. .Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]... A potent shortwave will dive into the southeastern states tonight and push a cold front across the forecast area. While deep moisture will be quite limited, the intensity of the shortwave and associated 140kt jet streak will be enough to squeeze out a few showers across the eastern portion of the area early on Monday. Cooler temperatures will follow the front, with highs on Monday ranging from the lower 50s in the northwest to around 60 in the southeastern Big Bend. The main push of cold air is expected to remain well to the northeast, so Tuesday morning lows will not be terribly cold (lower to mid 30s), and lower to mid 60s are expected by Tuesday afternoon. .Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]... A mean trough is forecast to remain in place over the eastern states through most of this week. The northwesterly flow aloft will help to keep temperatures near normal to just a bit below normal. Outside of a few isolated showers on Friday associated with a weak front, the forecast is dry until late next weekend.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12Z Monday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Winds will be gusty this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front which will move through during the overnight hours.
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&& .Marine...
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Another rough couple of days is in store for the coastal waters as a strong front crosses the waters tonight. Westerly winds will increase late this afternoon, approaching 30 knot over the offshore legs overnight. Winds will become northwesterly on Monday, but conditions will be slow to improve with Small Craft Advisory conditions persisting into Monday night. Conditions will not improve significantly until the middle of the week when high pressure builds over the waters.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Red flag conditions are not expected over the next several days. Dispersion values will be high across the panhandle this afternoon and across most of the area on Monday.
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&& .Hydrology...
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After Friday`s rain, many area rivers are still on the rise. The Aucilla at Lamont is forecast to reach minor flood stage today. Within the next week, more minor flooding will be possible along the St. Marks, Ochlockonee, and Kinchafoonee rivers, where rises are forecast to be slower.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 65 42 58 36 63 / 0 20 10 0 0 Panama City 64 47 58 42 63 / 0 20 10 0 0 Dothan 62 41 55 35 61 / 0 10 0 0 0 Albany 63 41 56 34 61 / 0 10 10 0 0 Valdosta 63 44 58 36 62 / 0 20 10 0 0 Cross City 64 43 60 36 63 / 0 40 20 0 0 Apalachicola 65 49 58 41 63 / 0 30 10 0 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...RIP CURRENT RISK until 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ early this morning for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday for Apalachee Bay-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Tuesday for Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...DVD SHORT TERM...CAMP LONG TERM...CAMP AVIATION...DVD MARINE...CAMP FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...WESTON/CAMP

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