National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

969
FXUS62 KTAE 151812
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
212 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2013


.NEAR TERM [This Afternoon through Tonight]...
A fairly sharp moisture gradient remains in place across our area
early this afternoon, with dewpoints in the lower 60s across SW
Georgia, and lower 70s in the coastal Panhandle and around Dixie
County. 12 UTC TAE sounding showed very dry mid-level air which
should help suppress convection this afternoon and evening. There
could be some isolated storms where higher surface dewpoints exist
in the aforementioned areas along the Panhandle coast and in the
eastern Florida Big Bend. Some isolated showers and storms are
possible over the coastal waters overnight. Lows over land should
be within a few degrees of 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Sunday through Monday]...
The flow is expected to veer to a more southerly direction on Sunday
with some increase in moisture. Thus, PoPs are expected to be a bit
higher than today, but still only on the order of 30% for most
areas, with a few areas near 40%. A similar scenario is expected for
Monday, with the highest PoPs (still on the order of 40%) placed in
the northern portions of the forecast area as a weak shortwave
passes by to the north.

&&

.LONG TERM [Monday Night through Saturday]...
A fairly seasonal period is expected with scattered afternoon and
evening convection each day. Temperatures are expected to remain
near their seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION [through 18 UTC Sunday]...
Outlook for the next 24 hours is VFR. ECP could see some TSRA in
the area this afternoon, but any rain should be brief / isolated.
All other terminals should stay dry and relatively cloud free.

&&

.MARINE...
Easterly winds are expected to surge to near cautionary levels east
of Apalachicola tonight and diminish by late morning on Sunday.
Winds and seas are then expected to remain low through the middle of
next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH will generally remain above 40%; red flag conditions not expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
River gages are expected to remain below flood stage for at least
the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   73  91  72  93  71 / 10  30  20  20  10
Panama City   77  87  74  88  75 / 20  30  10  20  10
Dothan        72  92  72  93  73 / 10  30  20  40  30
Albany        69  91  72  94  73 / 10  30  30  30  30
Valdosta      68  91  71  92  71 / 10  30  30  30  20
Cross City    70  91  70  91  70 / 20  40  30  20  10
Apalachicola  77  86  73  87  74 / 20  20  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Lamers
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...Lamers
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...Lamers
HYDROLOGY...DVD