Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 062036
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
336 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2014
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
A relatively weak wake low / pressure trough did manage to develop
late this morning behind the trailing edge of the stratiform rain
region. MSLP at TLH ASOS fell 2.2mb in an hour (15-16z), which was a
little lower in magnitude than what the hi-res models were showing.
It also occurred a bit earlier, prior to the 925-850mb wind field
strengthening. Therefore, the wind gusts across the area were a bit
weaker as well, peaking around 30 mph. The steadier rain has since
cleared out of the area, but the low stratus and some areas of
drizzle have persisted into the afternoon. Model forecast soundings
from the NAM and RAP both show a shallow layer of vertical motion
below 5000 ft through the early evening, so we included some drizzle
wording in the forecast. Eventually tonight, a second round of
steadier rain is expected to move through the area as DCVA becomes
maximized with the approach of the mid-level low center. Rainfall
should be fairly light, but models have been consistent in showing
this so we went with likely (~60%) PoPs.
.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
We will finally see an end to the cool and wet weather that has
been entrenched the past several days as we move into the weekend,
although we will remain below normal for another day with cool
northerly winds Friday. The main upper low will SHIFT OVER THE
AREA AND maintain low clouds and a chance/slgt chance PoPs to
start the day tomorrow, with low clouds likely to slowly erode
from west to east during the afternoon. High temp forecasts will
be tricky tomorrow depending on how early clouds can erode. Will
keep WRN AREAS WARMING UP A BIT MORE THAN AROUND I-75, but still
well below normal for this time of year, with highs around 60f.
Locales into central GA will be the slowest to shake the clouds
and highs will likely stay in the lower to mid 50s. Once this
weather system exits, a return to sun and near normal temperatures
will commence quickly with highs in the lower 70s Saturday.
.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
We will remain in a fairly active pattern for the next 7 days, with
normal temperatures and fairly low rain chances for Sunday into
early next week. However, another strong system will be looming as
we get into the mid week with rain chances once again increasing
by Wednesday. Thursday into Friday could see a return to below
normal temperatures behind the next strong cold front.
[Through 18Z Friday]
We expect IFR or LIFR CIGS to persist through the night. Some
light rain will move back into the area overnight, but should not
significantly reduce visibility. Gradual improvement to MVFR CIGS
is expected after 12z, with stratus scattering out and VFR
developing in the afternoon.
Modest offshore winds will sustain cautionary levels through
tonight and Friday morning, before conditions improve significantly by
the weekend. Clouds and rain showers chances will decrease during
the afternoon tomorrow, with light easterly winds and sunny skies
returning for Saturday.
Red flag conditions are not expected over the next several days with
RH well above critical thresholds and recent wetting rains.
Rainfall, mostly from this morning but additional showers will add
to that tonight, will average 1-2 inches across the area. These
totals are well below flash flood guidance, so flash flooding is
not expected. However, several points along area rivers may rise
to "action" stage by next week, meaning that some of our rivers
could be "primed" for flooding for the next round of soaking rain.
The next system to look out for comes mid-next week, although at
this time WPC QPF forecast is low, around 0.5-1.0", with higher
rainfall totals over the coastal waters.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 42 59 38 72 44 / 60 20 0 0 10
Panama City 43 60 48 68 52 / 60 20 0 0 10
Dothan 39 59 40 72 49 / 60 20 0 0 10
Albany 39 57 37 72 47 / 60 40 0 0 10
Valdosta 41 56 37 71 45 / 60 40 0 0 0
Cross City 45 60 37 72 44 / 50 30 0 0 0
Apalachicola 44 59 45 66 50 / 50 20 0 0 0
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for Coastal
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for Apalachee
Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola
to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.