Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 251837

237 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist through this
evening. As the upper level trough moves out late this evening a
ridge will quickly build in from the west. As a result precip will
end by midnight. Expect seasonal lows tonight in the lower 70s.

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
The persistent weakness that has been in place across the Eastern
CONUS for the last few days will be replaced by a mid level ridge
building into the region. This will result in slightly lower rain
chances and warmer afternoon temperatures through the weekend.
Highs by Sunday will be in the mid 90s with a few locations
possibly reaching the upper 90s. Heat indices Sunday afternoon
will likely be in the 100 to 105 degree range.

.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
Model guidance is in reasonably good agreement that the pattern
across the Eastern CONUS will amplify considerably at the start of
the period as a large trough moves through the Ohio Valley to the
Mid Atlantic States. For several runs now, the models have all
indicated the surface cold front making it through most if not all
of our forecast area by Tuesday. Thus, expect a couple of days of
below normal temps with little or no rain chances. The bulk of the
colder air should remain confined in the Tennessee Valley and
areas to the north though Wednesday and Thursday morning lows will
drop into the 60s across Srn Alabama/Georgia.

By Thursday, the pattern stalls or even retrogrades slightly with
the 500 mb trough axis aligned from the Southern Appalachians
through our forecast area. As deep layer moisture begins to
increase on Thursday, rain chances will increase. Afternoon
temperatures will still remain below normal through this portion
of the long term period due to expected cloud cover, though
overnight lows will return to seasonal norms.


[Through 18Z Saturday] Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through
the day. The typical summertime scattered diurnal convection will
develop across the area from southwest to northeast. Overnight
expect MVFR conditions at all terminals except for ABY. Low ceilings
are likely overnight except for DHN which will probably experience
mist in the early morning hours.


Southwesterly flow will continue over the marine area through the
weekend. On Monday, westerly flow will increase to cautionary
levels ahead of an approaching cold front. This boundary will move
through the marine area on Tuesday with light offshore winds
expected in its wake.


.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not expected over the next several days,
although dispersion values will be high this afternoon and Saturday
across most inland areas.


Afternoon sea breeze thunderstorms are expected, however heavy rain
will be localized and should not have any impact on area rivers.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   73  94  76  94  76 /  30  30  10  20  10
Panama City   76  91  78  91  79 /  20  30  10  20  10
Dothan        73  96  75  95  76 /  30  20  10  10  10
Albany        74  96  75  95  76 /  30  20  10  20  10
Valdosta      72  95  73  97  75 /  40  30  10  20  10
Cross City    72  92  74  93  74 /  20  30  10  20  10
Apalachicola  76  90  78  90  79 /  20  30  10  20  10


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...




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