Area Forecast Discussion
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573 FXUS62 KTAE 271923 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 323 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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The 1 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a developing, quasi-stationary front off the SC coast, through central FL, to the central Gulf of Mexico, and a high pressure ridge along the Piedmont. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a dramatic increase in deep layer moisture along the Gulf Coast compared to 24 hours ago, as southwest flow in the mid to upper troposphere advected ample tropical moisture. Numerous showers & thunderstorms were developing along the front in the Gulf, in an airmass with precip water values 1.5 times climatology. So far, with limited Q-G forcing and instability (mainly due to cloud cover), there hasn`t been much rain in our forecast area. However, we expect this to change overnight as moisture and large scale lift gradually increase. For the remainder of this afternoon & evening, the highest PoP (50%) is around Cross City. Late tonight this shifts westward to the FL Panhandle coast. There was still some dry boundary layer air inland, which will help limit the PoP/QPF inland overnight. Lows will be in the upper 60s (north) to lower 70s (south). .Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]... Deep layer moisture will continue to be pulled northward across the Tri-state area as the upper trough approaches. Additionally, models are consistent in showing the development of a surface low along the central Gulf coast Sunday and lifting to the east- northeast over our FA Sunday night through Monday. This feature will further enhance convection along with the threat for locally heavy rainfall, especially across our SE AL and Florida zones. QPF amounts through the short term period are in the 1-3" range with isolated amounts up to 6" possible. For this reason, we have decided to issue a Flash flood Watch effective at 06z for all of our Florida and SE AL zones. Temperatures will be at or above climo. .Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]... The 12z GFS and 00z EURO are in fairly good agreement on the timing of the exiting upper trough and surface low Monday night through Tuesday. However, the GFS is quicker to dry us with deep northwest flow. Will keep a slight PoP in our easternmost zones on Wednesday to account for this. Otherwise, deep moisture begins to return to the region as early Thursday ahead of the next upper trough and associated cold front. The front is forecast to push into our CWA on Saturday. Expect temperatures to run near normal.
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&& .Aviation...
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[through 18Z Sunday] MVFR cigs across our entire forecast area were gradually lifting, and should reach VFR levels mid to late afternoon. However, as has been the case the past several days, low clouds will develop from east to west overnight, between 6Z (KVLD, KTLH, & KABY) and 9z (KDHN & KECP). Occasional IFR cigs are possible, especially at KVLD. The PoP is too low to mention rain at any of the terminals today, but we expect period of rain at KECP & KDHN on Sunday- with occasional TSRA. Elsewhere SHRA/TSRA will be more isolated.
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&& .Marine...
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Light to moderate Easterly flow will gradually shift to become southerly by Monday ahead of a weak area of low pressure. Winds may briefly reach exercise caution levels tonight but will but now will keep under headline criteria. Winds are expected to be in the 10 to 15 knots range for Sunday and Monday, but rather stormy conditions are also likely during that time with locally higher winds and seas near thunderstorms. A decrease in winds and seas is expected for next week.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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With plenty of deep tropical moisture headed our way during the next couple of days, Wet Flag conditions will be in effect.
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&& .Hydrology...
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General rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are likely across the forecast area through Monday, except 3 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts around 6 inches possible in a short period of time along the panhandle coast. These amounts are not expected to result in any river flooding due to low flows from the recent dry summer, although rises are certainly expected. However, isolated instances of flash flooding cannot yet be ruled out for Sunday into Monday, mainly along the panhandle coast and in the typically vulnerable urban and low-lying areas. If confidence continues to increase in this scenario, then a flash flood watch could be issued as early as this afternoon for Sunday.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 72 84 71 87 72 / 40 80 70 70 20 Panama City 73 83 74 86 70 / 50 90 70 60 20 Dothan 68 83 69 84 66 / 30 90 70 60 20 Albany 68 84 69 86 68 / 20 80 70 80 30 Valdosta 70 85 70 86 70 / 30 60 60 70 30 Cross City 72 86 70 86 70 / 50 60 60 70 30 Apalachicola 74 83 75 86 72 / 60 90 70 60 20
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...Flash Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Sunday through Sunday evening for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson- Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay- Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson- Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson- Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton-Washington. GA...None. AL...Flash Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Sunday through Sunday evening for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...FOURNIER SHORT TERM...BARRY LONG TERM...BARRY AVIATION...FOURNIER MARINE...BARRY FIRE WEATHER...GOULD HYDROLOGY...DVD

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