Area Forecast Discussion
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808 FXUS62 KTAE 180919 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 419 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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A Ridge of Sfc high pressure will continue to hang on across the region today as an area of low pressure slowly gets more organized near the north central Gulf Coast. While this will be our primary weather maker for Friday, it will do little more than spread out bands of Cirrus across our skies today, just dimming the abundant sunshine from time time. High temps are expected to run very close to climatology, with readings ranging from the lower to middle 60s across the board, generally from north to south. .Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]... Increasing moisture ahead of a developing storm system across the Western Gulf of Mexico on Friday will lead to increasing cloud cover and eventually areas of rain developing by Friday afternoon as the storm system moves closer to the region and isentropic lift increases. From Friday afternoon through Saturday morning the model guidance is in fairly good agreement that the best zone of isentropic ascent will remain across our northern tier counties or possibly even further north across Central Alabama and into Middle Georgia Friday night. As the weak surface area of low pressure approaches on Saturday, limited deep layer forcing will limit overall coverage of rain. Rain amounts through the short term period should remain on the low side, but cloudy conditions from Friday through Saturday will keep temperatures below normal, and possibly several degrees below normal across our northern zones. .Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]... A complex weather pattern will evolve throughout the long term period. The system that passed through the region on Saturday will leave behind a stalled frontal zone across the Eastern Gulf and across the Florida Peninsula. With the upper level pattern across the Western and Central CONUS becoming more energetic by Sunday, a series of impulses moving within the broader trough will likely create intervals of rain along and north of this boundary Sunday through Tuesday. Thereafter, both the GFS and Euro indicate the main upper trough will dig into the mid Mississippi River Valley generating a strong storm system across the Tennessee Valley that will eventually push a cold front across Florida on Wednesday. The overall intensity of this frontal system is uncertain, with the 18/00z Euro featuring a weaker solution than its previous run. So while the forecast remains uncertain with regard to the intensity this storm system, there does appear to be consensus emerging that drier conditions should arrive late on Christmas Eve and continue into Christmas Day.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12Z Friday] With plenty of cool and dry air entrenched across the region and a large cirrus canopy overhead, VFR level conditions with light winds are expected to easily prevail through the Taf period.
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&& .Marine...
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Light offshore flow over the marine area will continue into Friday, when winds will shift to easterly and increase to moderate levels. Headline conditions are not anticipated. Winds will decrease by Sunday and remain low into Monday.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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After a brief shot of cool and dry air today and Friday (which will still not even be close to causing any Red Flag concerns), low level moisture and rain chances will begin to increase again over the weekend. This upcoming pattern will be extremely unfavorable for both Red Flag conditions and even controlled burns.
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&& .Hydrology...
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With light rainfall amounts anticipated with the next storm system on Friday into Saturday, there are no flooding issues expected through the weekend.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 65 41 65 47 66 / 0 0 10 30 30 Panama City 63 46 62 54 65 / 0 0 40 30 30 Dothan 63 42 59 46 60 / 0 0 40 50 50 Albany 63 40 62 46 62 / 0 0 30 50 60 Valdosta 63 39 65 46 64 / 0 0 10 30 30 Cross City 67 40 70 47 69 / 0 0 10 20 20 Apalachicola 64 44 64 54 66 / 0 0 20 20 30
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...GOULD SHORT TERM...GODSEY LONG TERM...GODSEY AVIATION...GOULD MARINE...GODSEY FIRE WEATHER...GOULD HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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