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206
FXUS62 KTAE 150824
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
424 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2013

.NEAR TERM [Today]...
A weak stationary front/trough stretched west to east across the
northern rim of the gulf from Louisiana to just south of the Florida
Panhandle this morning. This boundary will dissipate today as upper
ridging builds in from the west and the surface ridge begins to
reestablish itself across the local region.

Time height cross sections, forecast soundings and water vapor
imagery show that much drier air has filtered into the region,
especially north of the Florida border. This along with subsidence
drying due to the building upper ridge should help to suppress deep
convection today. We only expect isolated afternoon showers/tstms
this afternoon over the Florida zones as the sea breeze advances
inland. High temperatures should be a bit warmer, especially to the
west closer to the ridge, where mid 90s will be common away from the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...
The large scale longwave pattern commences highlighted by a ridge
centered over Wrn Gulf region with 593dm high south of LA, and a
full latitude trough over Wrn Atlc. As trough continues to move ewd,
Gulf ridge noses NEWD into local region. At surface, cold front
currently moving across marine area will continue to weaken and
become diffuse under increasing influence of subtropical Gulf ridge.
In its wake, high in Atlc just east of SC with ridge SWWD across
local area.

For Sun into Mon, the Gulf ridge is forecast to flatten (elongate)
SWD as a passing vortlobe skirts the Nrn Gulf region. This will
also retrograde H5 high back towards TX coast and shunt surface
high further EWD into Atlc resulting locally in veering winds and
a modest increase in deep layer moisture. Absent front, synoptic
onshore flow and seabreeze take over allowing for slightly higher
PoPs each day. Will go with 30-20% S-N pop gradient on Sun
increasing to 30-40% SW-NE on Mon. However, if Gulf and East coast
seabreeze collide in late aftn across our ern counties, aided by
passing vort especially on Mon, then increasing rain amounts and
chance for stronger storms become possible.

Lack of clouds should keep min temps tonight a few degrees below
normal. Expect inland lows tonight from mid 60s east to low 70s
west. With veering winds and added clouds Sun night, min temps rise
to low 70s everywhere. The development of seabreeze and aftn clouds
should lower temps from recent days, especially in cooler beach
temps. Expect highs Sat and Sun from mid 80s coast to low 90s Nrn
counties.

&&

.LONG TERM [Monday Night through Friday]...
The tri-state area will be on the southern periphery of the
faster westerlies early next week with scattered afternoon/evening
convection expected. Depending on the timing of a shortwave passing
to the north and its associated surface boundary, rain chances may
be higher on Tuesday through Thursday (especially over the
northern zones). Temperatures are expected to remain near seasonal
norms.

&&

.AVIATION...[Through 06z Sunday]
VFR conditions will prevail across the area with the drier airmass
in place. Isolated thunderstorms could develop over north Florida as
the sea breeze moves onshore, and possibly affect ECP and TLH.
However, precipitation chances will remain low, and VFR conditions
will continue at most locations throughout the day. Winds will be
east to southeast around 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds should continue to diminish through the weekend as the the
stationary front washes out and the subtropical ridge becomes
reestablished across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Winds and seas
should remain low through the middle of next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
River gauges are expected to remain below flood stage for at least
the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   92  71  91  71  91 / 20  10  30  20  30
Panama City   89  75  87  75  86 / 20  10  20  20  20
Dothan        94  71  92  73  92 / 10  10  30  20  40
Albany        93  69  92  72  93 / 10   0  20  20  40
Valdosta      93  67  93  71  92 / 10  10  20  20  40
Cross City    92  69  92  70  91 / 20  10  30  20  30
Apalachicola  88  75  85  75  85 / 20  10  20  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$


SHORT TERM/MARINE...Block
AVIATION/FIRE WX/NEAR TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Camp