Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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394
FXUS62 KTAE 280853
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
453 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

AFTER NUMEROUS DAYS OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE MONTH OF MARCH WITH HIGH TEMPS EVEN APPROACHING THE 90
DEGREE MARK AT TALLAHASSEE ON 3 SEPARATE OCCASIONS, TODAY WILL BE A
RUDE AWAKENING FOR THOSE WHO HAVE BECOME ACCUSTOMED TO THE VERY WARM
WEATHER. EVEN WITH PLENTY OF LATE MARCH SUNSHINE OVER THE REGION,
HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S SOUTH AT BEST THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. ALSO, BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON A PIECE OF
ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE VERY SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF, WHICH IS
CURRENTLY SWINGING EASTWARD THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT, IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO THE
CWA OVER TIME. HOWEVER, THIS ENERGY WILL BE STARVED FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE, SO THE CHANCES OF A LIGHT SHOWER FROM 10 KFT
CEILINGS WILL BE VERY SLIM AT BEST OVER SE AL, BUT THERE COULD BE A
15-20 PERCENT CHANCE JUST TO THE NW OF OUR CWA.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA FOR
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES MONDAY THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN
COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS. MODELS SHOW CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
WESTERN GULF IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THESE
FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL LEVELS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S AND LOWS NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE
10 KFT FROM NW TO SE OVER THE TERMINALS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY THAN THEY WERE ON FRIDAY,
BUT MAY STILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE
DIMINISHING AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE LATER TODAY. WINDS
WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DESPITE THE VERY COOL AIR OVER THE REGION TODAY, THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DROP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DOWN TO RED FLAG
LEVELS FOR 4 TO 5 HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND
PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, ONLY WAKULLA COUNTY IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND IS
FORECAST TO REACH AN ERC OF 37, SO A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS COUNTY ONLY FOR TODAY. ON SUNDAY, RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS EVEN LONGER FOR A LARGER
PORTION OF NORTH FLORIDA, AND WITH ERC VALUES STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME, DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND JACKSON AND CALHOUN COUNTIES IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. OVER OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES, RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
DIFFERENT CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY...HOWEVER TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH ALL RIVERS BELOW FLOOD
STAGE THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   64  39  68  46  78 /   0  10   0  10  20
PANAMA CITY   63  45  65  56  75 /   0  10   0  10  10
DOTHAN        59  38  65  50  77 /  10   0  10  20  30
ALBANY        59  36  64  47  77 /  10   0   0  20  30
VALDOSTA      63  38  68  44  76 /   0  10   0  10  20
CROSS CITY    65  38  69  42  76 /   0  10   0   0  10
APALACHICOLA  65  45  65  54  74 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR CALHOUN-COASTAL DIXIE-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL
     JEFFERSON-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL WAKULLA-GADSDEN-INLAND
     DIXIE-INLAND FRANKLIN-INLAND JEFFERSON-INLAND TAYLOR-INLAND
     WAKULLA-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-LEON-LIBERTY-MADISON.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WAKULLA-INLAND WAKULLA.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR APALACHEE
     BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
     RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER
     TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON



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