Area Forecast Discussion
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340
FXUS62 KTAE 160301
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1001 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

As return flow increases on the western periphery of surface high
pressure and ahead of an approaching cold front, very shallow
isentropic ascent may result in a few light showers across the
Florida panhandle and southeast Alabama. The coverage of rain
should remain isolated-to-scattered in nature due to the weakly
forced, extremely shallow surface based (~290K) layer over which
ascent is occurring. By sunrise the surface front will be
approaching our western Alabama and Florida counties yielding a
better chance for showers.

Separate from the approaching frontal system, dense fog is
developing over the southeast Big Bend of Florida tonight. A dense
fog advisory is currently in effect for the region and may have to
be extended northward as the evolution of the fog becomes more
clear. The main point of concern will be in Dixie county where a
prescribed burn has left some lingering smoke just west of highway
19 near county road 361. Typically a fog/smoke mix will yield near
zero visibilities. Depending upon how this plays out a dense smoke
advisory may be possible later tonight.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Wednesday]...

Low ceilings, likely in the MVFR range will spread west to east
late tonight through tomorrow ahead of a cold front. Behind the
front restrictions should clear somewhat quickly. In general,
expect a 3 to 6 hour window of restrictions at each terminal
through the TAF. A narrow band of light showers should be expected
immediately along the front. West winds may gust to around 20
knots at times.

&&

.Prev Discussion [348 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

A mid-upper level low, currently evident on water vapor satellite
loops centered over northern Missouri, should slowly lift into
Lower Michigan by tomorrow morning. With most of the mid-upper
level height falls focused well north of our area, the cold front
approaching from the west should be weakening with time. In fact,
the 500mb heights are forecast to rise over the next 24 hours over
our forecast area. Therefore, we expect fairly weak forcing along
the cold front, with a broken line of showers. Hi-res guidance
suggests that most locales could see rain, but the rain totals
will be rather light and the duration very short (1-hr or less).
Temperatures ahead of the cold front should be above normal.

Dry weather with clearing skies is expected for the remainder of
the short term period as the shallow front passes by and a ridge
of surface high pressure builds in underneath zonal flow aloft.
Temperatures will cool closer to seasonal normals.


.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...

Although zonal flow over the southern US will be the predominant
pattern through much of the extended forecast period, global
models do consistently show a deamplifying wave ejecting from
Texas to the Southeast on Friday to Saturday. In general, they are
depicting a surface low to develop somewhere in the vicinity of
the Gulf coast, although the details have been quite variable
among different model runs. For now we are forecasting the best
rain chances on Friday Night and Saturday, and some thunderstorms
will be possible too. Temperatures will be steady near seasonal
normals for much of the period.


.Marine...

Southwesterly winds will increase tonight as the cold front
approaches. 15-20 knot winds appear likely enough west of
Apalachicola to warrant a SCEC headline for those legs, mainly for
the 06-18Z period. The next significant increase in winds should
be later Friday or Saturday as the next low pressure system
approaches the area.


.Fire Weather...

Relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds for
the next several days, with rain possible tomorrow and early
this weekend. Thus, hazardous fire weather conditions are not
expected.


.Hydrology...

No flooding issues are expected over the next several days. A weak
system may bring a few light showers on Tuesday. A better chance
of rain may arrive around Friday night or Saturday.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   48  76  42  65  39 /  10  30   0   0   0
Panama City   58  71  46  61  47 /  20  40   0   0   0
Dothan        55  69  40  62  39 /  20  40   0   0   0
Albany        46  71  38  63  36 /  10  40   0   0   0
Valdosta      43  73  41  64  38 /   0  30   0   0   0
Cross City    42  74  43  68  38 /   0  10  10   0   0
Apalachicola  56  72  46  62  45 /  10  30   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday for Coastal Dixie-
     Coastal Taylor-Inland Dixie-Inland Taylor-Lafayette.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...DVD/LAMERS






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