Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 060328
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1028 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2013
.NEAR TERM [Tonight]...
Yet another precarious fog forecast across the region tonight, but
was at least able to trim back PoPs across the board as it appears
that most of the showers will now remain off to our north and
west for the remainder of the night. For the time being, went with
areas of fog CWA wide with patchy dense fog across the FL Big Bend
and Panhandle, as well as the adjacent coastal waters later
tonight, where a Dense Fog Advisory may still be needed for
portions of the region at some time. Interestingly, Perry (40J) has
been the first site to drop to 1/2 mile Vis this evening, and they
are in the cool sector with a T/Td spread of 61/59 and have
radiation fog in the cooler air, where a "bubble" ridge has
formed. Further to the west where advection fog was/is still a
concern with temps and dewpoints in the lower 70s with the high
Tds advecting in off the Gulf, Sfc winds have remained in the 5 to
10 kt range, and this has kept visibilities up so far, with lower
Cigs a greater concern at this time. The one difference from
tonight versus last night is that if a Dense Fog Advisory is
needed, it will likely be issued much later than last night.
.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
The long wave pattern will change little during this period with a
mean trough axis over the western and central U.S. and a ridge
extending from the northwest Caribbean northeast across South FL and
then off the Eastern U.S. Seaboard. One short wave will lift
northeastward from the base of the trough on Friday with another
moving out into the Central Plains Saturday night. A cold front will
reach our northwestern zones Friday night and then stall once it
reaches a AAF-TLH-VLD line on Saturday. This front will remain
stationary through Saturday night. Ahead of the front, unseasonably
warm temperatures will continue. Highs on Friday will be in the
lower 80s across most of the forecast area, except along the coast.
The record at TLH of 83 should be safe however. Cooler air will
arrive behind the front for Saturday with highs mainly in the 60s.
Ahead of the front, it will stay mild with highs in the mid to upper
70s from Tallahassee and Valdosta southeastward. PoPs will be in the
chance category with the highest rain chances coming post-frontal.
.LONG TERM [Sunday through Thursday]...
The front will lift rapidly northward as a warm front on Sunday with
temps once again surging to around 80 in the FL Big Bend with 70s
elsewhere. One more warm day will occur on Monday before a stronger
cold front crosses the entire forecast area from Monday night into
Tuesday. We could see some isolated thunderstorms out ahead of the
front Monday afternoon. Once again PoPs will be in the chance
category. Much cooler air will arrive behind this front with daytime
highs ranging from the mid 50s in Coffee County AL to around 70 in
Dixie County FL. Wednesday will be the coolest day with highs in the
50s northwest of a TLH-VLD line. At this point, it does now appear
that a freeze will occur, although lows will drop into the mid 30s
across our extreme northwestern zones by sunrise Wednesday. TLH
should get no lower than 40 degrees.
[Through 00z Saturday] Another round of low cigs and fog is expected
tonight. Given that cirrus is clearing out of the area and showers
appear to be staying west of the terminals tonight, there may be
more fog across the area compared to last night. LIFR conditions are
expected to develop across the area with some conditions near
landing minimums. A gradual improvement back to VFR is expected by
late morning into early afternoon on Friday. Gusty southerly winds
are expected to develop during the afternoon.
Light to moderate onshore flow will continue over the coastal waters
through Monday as high pressure remains anchored off the east coast.
A front will slide into the western waters on Saturday briefly
switching winds to offshore west of Apalachicola. This front will
then lift back to the north Saturday night. A stronger front will
cross the waters Monday night into Tuesday with winds reaching
cautionary levels behind it.
Relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds
through the forecast period, therefore no red flag conditions are
expected in the near future. Dense fog may develop over the next
Total rainfall amounts over the next 5 days should range from
roughly an inch and a half northwest of Dothan to less than half
an inch over the southeastern half of the HSA. This will have
only minimal impacts on area rivers and streams.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 59 81 64 74 56 / 10 10 30 40 20
Panama City 66 78 65 69 58 / 10 20 40 40 20
Dothan 64 81 57 62 53 / 20 20 40 50 30
Albany 61 82 63 68 54 / 10 10 30 50 30
Valdosta 60 83 63 76 57 / 10 10 20 40 20
Cross City 59 81 60 79 56 / 10 10 10 20 10
Apalachicola 65 76 66 72 59 / 10 10 30 40 20