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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
525
FXUS62 KTAE 151246
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
846 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2013


.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
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Water vapor imagery along with the 12z KTAE sounding confirms that
drier air has moved into the area compared to yesterday morning.
A weakening frontal boundary is located just south of the area and
is expected to dissipate today. This should aid in significantly
suppressing afternoon convection this afternoon. PoPs generally
range from 10% or less across southeast AL and southwest GA to
just 20% across northwest Florida. Afternoon high temperatures
will still be seasonably warm across the area with low to mid 90s
expected across inland areas and upper 80s to near 90 along the
coast.
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&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...
The large scale longwave pattern commences highlighted by a ridge
centered over Wrn Gulf region with 593dm high south of LA, and a
full latitude trough over Wrn Atlc. As trough continues to move ewd,
Gulf ridge noses NEWD into local region. At surface, cold front
currently moving across marine area will continue to weaken and
become diffuse under increasing influence of subtropical Gulf ridge.
In its wake, high in Atlc just east of SC with ridge SWWD across
local area.

For Sun into Mon, the Gulf ridge is forecast to flatten (elongate)
SWD as a passing vortlobe skirts the Nrn Gulf region. This will
also retrograde H5 high back towards TX coast and shunt surface
high further EWD into Atlc resulting locally in veering winds and
a modest increase in deep layer moisture. Absent front, synoptic
onshore flow and seabreeze take over allowing for slightly higher
PoPs each day. Will go with 30-20% S-N pop gradient on Sun
increasing to 30-40% SW-NE on Mon. However, if Gulf and East coast
seabreeze collide in late aftn across our ern counties, aided by
passing vort especially on Mon, then increasing rain amounts and
chance for stronger storms become possible.

Lack of clouds should keep min temps tonight a few degrees below
normal. Expect inland lows tonight from mid 60s east to low 70s
west. With veering winds and added clouds Sun night, min temps rise
to low 70s everywhere. The development of seabreeze and aftn clouds
should lower temps from recent days, especially in cooler beach
temps. Expect highs Sat and Sun from mid 80s coast to low 90s Nrn
counties.

&&

.LONG TERM [Monday Night through Friday]...
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The tri-state area will be on the southern periphery of the
faster westerlies early next week with scattered afternoon/evening
convection expected. Depending on the timing of a shortwave passing
to the north and its associated surface boundary, rain chances may
be higher on Tuesday through Thursday (especially over the
northern zones). Temperatures are expected to remain near
seasonal norms.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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[Through 12z Sunday] VFR conditions will prevail across the area
with the drier airmass in place. Isolated thunderstorms could
develop over north Florida as the sea breeze moves onshore, and
possibly affect ECP and TLH. However, precipitation chances will
remain low, and VFR conditions will continue at most locations
throughout the day. Winds will be east to southeast around 10
knots.
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&&

.MARINE...
Winds should continue to diminish through the weekend as the the
stationary front washes out and the subtropical ridge becomes
reestablished across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Winds and seas
should remain low through the middle of next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
River gauges are expected to remain below flood stage for at least
the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Tallahassee   92  71  91  71  91 / 20   0  30  20  30
Panama City   89  75  87  75  86 / 20  10  20  20  20
Dothan        94  71  92  73  92 / 10   0  20  20  40
Albany        93  69  92  72  93 / 10   0  20  20  40
Valdosta      93  67  93  71  92 / 10   0  20  20  40
Cross City    92  69  92  70  91 / 20  10  30  20  30
Apalachicola  88  75  85  75  85 / 20  10  20  20  20
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&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...DVD
Short Term/Marine/Hydrology...Block
Long Term...Camp
Aviation/Fire Wx...Barry