Area Forecast Discussion
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069 FXUS62 KTAE 240714 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 214 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2015 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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The surface cold front is currently moving through the area and will clear the area by around sunrise. Today will feature clearing skies, breezy conditions, and seasonably cool temperatures with daytime highs ranging from the middle 50s to lower 60s. .Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]... Amplified pattern is forecast to remain in place across the country through Monday, with a trough over the eastern states. For Sunday, the region will be between an exiting shortwave (from Saturday) and an approaching shortwave. With a weak pressure gradient tonight, temperatures should fall into the lower to mid 30s before moderating into the mid 60s Sunday afternoon. A potent shortwave will dig into the base of the mean trough Sunday night into Monday and push a reinforcing cold front through the forecast area early Monday morning. With very limited deep layer moisture, no precip is expected with the frontal passage, but should see cooler temperatures during the day on Monday. Expect highs ranging from the lower 60s in the southeast to the lower 50s in SE Alabama and SW Georgia. .Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]... The amplified pattern is forecast to continue through much of next week with northwesterly flow aloft across the forecast area. This will keep the weather dry through at least Thursday, with temperatures running a couple of degrees cooler than normal for late January. A front will approach the region late in the week, with the potential for a few showers on Friday. With limited return flow ahead of this front, significant rainfall seems unlikely at this time.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12Z Sunday] The passage of a cold front will bring gusty west to northwest winds and clearing skies today. MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected through mid-morning with clearing skies and VFR conditions for the remainder of the period.
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&& .Marine...
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Winds and seas will remain elevated this morning with Small Craft Advisory conditions continuing until late afternoon. Following a brief lull tonight and Sunday, winds and seas will increase again Sunday night as another front pushes across the waters. Advisory level winds are likely Sunday night through Monday afternoon. Winds will diminish slightly by Monday night, but remain near Exercise Caution levels through Wednesday.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Dispersion values will be on the high side this afternoon as well as Sunday afternoon with strong transport winds behind a cold front. Otherwise, there are no other fire weather concerns.
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&& .Hydrology...
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A widespread 1.5-3" of rain fell across the area today, with streaks of 3-6" roughly from Apalachicola to Madison. This has caused sharp rises along some of our area rivers. Minor flooding is forecast along the Withlacoochee and Aucilla rivers and is also possible along the Shoal river today. Within the next week, more minor flooding will be possible along the St. Marks, Ochlockonee, and Kinchafoonee rivers, where rises are forecast to be slower.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 58 34 65 43 59 / 0 0 0 10 0 Panama City 57 40 64 46 57 / 0 0 0 10 0 Dothan 54 35 62 41 54 / 0 0 0 10 0 Albany 55 32 62 41 56 / 0 0 0 10 0 Valdosta 57 34 63 42 59 / 10 0 0 10 10 Cross City 61 32 64 44 61 / 10 0 0 10 0 Apalachicola 59 40 62 49 61 / 0 0 0 10 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EST early this morning for Coastal Franklin. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for Apalachee Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...DVD SHORT TERM...CAMP LONG TERM...CAMP AVIATION...DVD MARINE...CAMP FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...MOORE

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