Area Forecast Discussion
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360 FXUS62 KTAE 150705 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 305 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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In the wake of the cold front that has pushed through the area, a drier air mass is advecting in. The drying through a deep layer should lead to relatively clear skies. Models are very consistent in showing 850mb temperatures around 8-9C this afternoon near the top of the mixed layer, which usually corresponds to highs in the upper 70s on well-mixed days. This was very close to the result of 00Z model consensus, so our forecast did not stray far from that. .Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]... Deep cut-off low over the Ohio Valley will slowly migrate northeastward through Thursday keeping deep northwesterly flow in place across the forecast area. At the surface, high pressure over the western Gulf today will slide eastward through Friday. With a very dry airmass in place (PWAT below 1 inch), no precip is expected. Temperatures will be close to normal, with highs in the upper 70s for Thursday and lower 80s for Friday, and lows around 50 the next two nights. .Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]... Broad troughing, or nearly zonal flow aloft, will prevail locally through the extended range. At the surface, high pressure will remain intact, with no rain in the forecast. Highs will hold steady in the low 80s, which is near average for this time of year. Lows, will be slightly below normal, in the lower to middle 50s.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12Z Thursday] Other than a few lingering clouds, skies have mostly cleared out overnight. VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period with westerly winds.
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&& .Marine...
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Offshore flow near exercise caution conditions will continue today as high pressure builds over the western Gulf. Conditions will improve tonight and Thursday with light winds and minimal seas continuing through the weekend.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Although a drier air mass is expected across the region, especially Wednesday to Friday, RH values are not expected to fall to critical levels. RH values on Friday may approach red flag thresholds in the western part of our area, but winds should have decreased sufficiently such that red flag conditions are not expected.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Several area rivers have shown sharp rises in response to the rain that fell over the past 24-36 hours. However, prior to this rain event river levels were so low that it is unlikely any of our forecast points will reach minor flood stage. In fact, only a few points along the Shoal and Choctawhatchee rivers are forecast to remain in, or reach action stage.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 80 50 79 48 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 Panama City 77 56 78 56 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dothan 77 50 77 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 77 50 77 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 79 50 77 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cross City 80 50 79 50 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 77 57 77 55 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ early this morning for Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...LAMERS SHORT TERM...CAMP LONG TERM...HARRIGAN AVIATION...LAMERS MARINE...CAMP FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN

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