Area Forecast Discussion
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957
FXUS62 KTAE 140004
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
804 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING REVEALS A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AHEAD OF THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WEST TEXAS. ABUNDANT DEEP
MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR APRIL. THE RADAR MOSAIC REVEALS SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA WITH A LARGE AREA
OF RAIN MOVING EAST THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TOWARDS THE AREA
THAT RECEIVED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS AREA
OF RAIN IS MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE AND HAS SHOWN SOME WEAKENING
TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 00Z.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...EXPECT AN OVERALL DECREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AFTER 06Z WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE...GENERALLY BETWEEN 65 AND 70.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY] DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH 14Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z
AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [416 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF SMALL UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS CLOUDY AND RAINY IN MOST AREAS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RAIN AND BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO
SOME AREAS. THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW, AND THE MAIN
FOCUS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE POTENTIAL FLOODING.
EXPECT ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY
THROUGH THE PERIOD.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...

THE UNSETTLED TREND CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH NEAR
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN WE WILL FINALLY BREAK OUT OF
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN. THE GFS HAS A SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH AND BREAK
US OUT OF THE PATTERN ON SATURDAY, BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS US LOCKED
IN THE UNSETTLED PATTERN UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE`LL BE KEEPING
AN EYE ON THE MODELS AS NEW RUNS BECOME AVAILABLE.


.MARINE...

OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT.


.FIRE WEATHER...

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH HIGH RH
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WETTING RAINS ARE
LIKELY AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD STAY HIGH.


.HYDROLOGY...

HEAVY RAINFALL LAST NIGHT AFFECTED JACKSON COUNTY WITH TOTALS AS
HIGH AS 11" NEAR COTTONDALE WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD PORTION OF THE
PANHANDLE RECEIVING AROUND 2-3". TODAY, WE`VE BEEN FORTUNATE THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE SO FAR BEEN OFFSHORE, BUT THE
NEARLY STATIONARY STORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
COULD CAUSE SOME FLASH FLOODING ISSUES SHOULD THEY MOVE ASHORE. THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 8 PM EST TONIGHT FOR THE
FL PANHANDLE COUNTIES BECAUSE OF THIS POTENTIAL.

IN TERMS OF RIVER FLOODING, OUR RIVERS STARTED THIS EVENT AT
PARTICULARLY LOW LEVELS, SO NO FLOODING IS FORECAST FROM THE
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME, THOUGH A FEW RIVER SITES MAY RISE TO ACTION
STAGE AS A RESULT OF THIS RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   68  85  69  84  68 /  40  40  30  60  40
PANAMA CITY   71  79  72  78  70 /  50  40  50  60  40
DOTHAN        66  83  67  81  65 /  60  60  60  70  50
ALBANY        66  84  67  82  65 /  60  60  40  70  50
VALDOSTA      67  84  66  84  67 /  50  50  20  60  50
CROSS CITY    68  85  67  85  68 /  30  30  20  40  40
APALACHICOLA  72  82  73  81  71 /  40  30  30  60  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...MERRIFIELD/WESTON
LONG TERM...MERRIFIELD/WESTON
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...MOORE



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