Area Forecast Discussion
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513 FXUS62 KTAE 291827 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 227 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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As expected, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms have either moved inland or developed over land areas this afternoon. So far all convection over land is confined to the Florida zones, most concentrated in the panhandle. This activity will diminish by late this evening, setting up a fairly typical late summer night with dry weather and lows in the lower 70s. .Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]... Deepest moisture associated with northward moving tropical wave will be west and north of the area on Saturday. However, still expect to see scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area. Best chances expected across Georgia, southeast Alabama, and down the I-75 corridor. With ridge building aloft and scattered nature of convection, temperatures should be able to warm into the mid 90s for most locations on Saturday. Large-scale forcing will be even lower by Sunday, with the upper ridge still firmly in place. This should yield even lower PoPs than Saturday, with the seabreeze driving the convection. Another warm day is likely with mid 90s for highs once again. .Long Term [Monday Through Friday]... The extended period will be dominated by an upper ridge over the northeastern Gulf Coast. The subtropical ridge axis will remain just north of the forecast area, keeping the low-level flow out of the south or southeast. With the upper ridge in place and little synoptic forcing, temperatures are expected to be a little above normal (lower to mid 90s) with lower than normal rain chances.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Saturday] Occasional MVFR/IFR conditions can be expected due to convection for the remainder of the afternoon/evening, especially at ECP and TLH. Chances will diminish much more to the north and east at DHN, ABY, and VLD. Convection will diminish by late this evening with patchy fog possible at TAF sites in the pre-dawn hours.
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&& .Marine...
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The subtropical ridge will be positioned north of the coastal waters through early next week. As a result, expect to see light southerly to southeasterly flow continue through at least Tuesday.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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No fire weather concerns for at least the next several days.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through the weekend. Some locally heavy rainfall amounts are possible, but widespread heavy rain does not look likely. There are no flooding concerns at this time since river levels are already very low due to a drier than average summer.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 74 94 74 93 73 / 30 40 20 40 20 Panama City 78 90 77 91 77 / 40 30 20 30 20 Dothan 73 93 74 94 74 / 20 50 20 30 20 Albany 73 94 73 95 73 / 10 50 30 30 20 Valdosta 73 94 72 93 72 / 30 50 30 50 20 Cross City 74 93 73 92 72 / 40 40 30 40 20 Apalachicola 78 90 76 90 76 / 40 30 10 30 20
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...BARRY SHORT TERM...CAMP LONG TERM...CAMP AVIATION...BARRY MARINE...CAMP FIRE WEATHER...BARRY HYDROLOGY...CAMP

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