Area Forecast Discussion
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114 FXUS62 KTAE 280043 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 743 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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The 7 pm EST regional surface analysis showed a couple of northeast- southwest oriented troughs across the Southeast, but the pressure gradient was weaker than 24 hours ago. With this weaker gradient we expect lighter winds overnight, perhaps going calm at times. The combination of light winds and a cool, dry airmass will allow temperatures to fall into the mid 30s in our normally coldest inland sites; with a few spots perhaps briefly reaching freezing around sunrise. Patchy frost is also possible.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Thursday] Unrestricted Vis and unlimited cigs are expected through at least Wednesday evening. Winds will be light to calm overnight, then N to NE 7 KT or less Wednesday.
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&& .Prev Discussion [325 PM EST]...
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.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]... The high amplitude long wave trough will be east of the area at the start of the period with nearly zonal flow in place by 12Z Thursday. A northern stream trough will pass north of the region Thursday night. Surface high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley Wednesday morning will slide south to our forecast area by Thursday. Yet another cold front will sweep across the region Thursday night. Models have been trending drier with this front, but we have kept in a slight chance for showers after midnight. Temps will be a few degrees below normal Wednesday and Wednesday night, seasonal on Thursday and milder than normal Thursday night. .Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]... An upper level ridge will build over the area from Friday night into Saturday with another northern stream trough passing north of the area on Sunday and Sunday night. A surface frontal system will accompany this feature with the cold frontal passage most likely occurring on Sunday. We have edged PoPs up to the chance category for this event and these may rise as the timing of the frontal passage becomes more certain. High pressure will then regain control of the weather from Monday into Tuesday. Temps will be near seasonal levels through the weekend with cooler temps arriving early next week. Overnight lows will be above normal through the period. .Marine... Winds and seas have now dropped below small craft advisory criteria and we will instead go with an exercise caution headline for tonight. Winds and seas will drop below headline criteria on Wednesday and gradually veer to onshore by Thursday as high pressure settles to the south. Winds will increase slightly behind a cold front on Friday morning, but are expected to reach cautionary levels from Friday night into Sunday. .Fire Weather... Relative humidity values just above critical thresholds will preclude any hazardous fire weather conditions over the next several days. .Hydrology... Routed flow continues to progress downstream across rivers in far Southern Georgia and the Florida Big Bend. The Ochlockonee has crested at Thomasville just below flood stage. This suggests that downstream conditions at Concord and Havana will be very near or just above flood stage later this week. The Withlacoochee River crested above Valdosta this morning and the additional water from the Little River (cresting at Hahira this evening) will likely result in minor flood levels later this week below Valdosta at US-84. The next notable rainfall threat is on Sunday, with models suggesting a widespread 0.5-1.0 inch rainfall amounts across the area. Though these amounts are unlikely to result in any additional river flooding, they will continue to help keep area stream flows above normal as we move into February.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 37 60 34 64 48 / 0 0 0 0 20 Panama City 42 57 42 63 52 / 0 0 0 0 20 Dothan 34 56 36 63 47 / 0 0 0 0 20 Albany 33 55 32 61 44 / 0 0 0 0 20 Valdosta 35 56 33 63 45 / 0 0 0 0 20 Cross City 37 59 32 65 44 / 0 0 0 0 10 Apalachicola 41 59 42 64 52 / 0 0 0 0 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...RIP CURRENT RISK until 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Wednesday for Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...FOURNIER SHORT TERM...WOOL LONG TERM...WOOL AVIATION...FOURNIER MARINE...WOOL FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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