Area Forecast Discussion
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548 FXUS62 KTAE 242000 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 400 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 .NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
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THE LOCAL AREA IS DOMINATED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS MAINTAINED MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS ARE NOTED. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA. .SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]... THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS AND AMPLIFIES. AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, LOCAL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BECOME ONSHORE BRINGING WARMER TEMPS AND INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE THURSDAY NIGHT (40-60%) AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH LOWS RANGING FROM MID 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST. .LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]... A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS BOTH DAYS ONLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTHERNMOST ZONES AND AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. A MODEST WARMING TREND IS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION...
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[THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY] MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CEILING BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. LATER TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOWER CEILINGS COULD REDEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENTS BACK TO VFR ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
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&& .MARINE...
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LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN SO UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ELEVATE TO AT LEAST CAUTIONARY LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PREVENT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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MODEST RISES IN SOME OF THE LOCAL RIVER STAGES WERE OBSERVED FROM THE RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT ALL SITES WERE BELOW ACTION STAGE.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TALLAHASSEE 56 83 56 81 61 / 10 10 10 20 50 PANAMA CITY 60 75 62 76 61 / 10 10 10 20 60 DOTHAN 57 80 55 81 54 / 10 10 10 20 50 ALBANY 58 80 55 82 56 / 10 10 10 20 40 VALDOSTA 58 84 57 84 61 / 10 10 10 20 50 CROSS CITY 57 83 58 83 65 / 10 10 10 20 50 APALACHICOLA 60 74 63 77 64 / 10 10 10 20 40
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&& .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DVD SHORT TERM...BARRY LONG TERM...BARRY AVIATION...DVD MARINE...BARRY FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER

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