Area Forecast Discussion
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529 FXUS62 KTAE 221421 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 921 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2015 ...Locally heavy rain possible on Friday...as well as a low risk of a severe storm... .Near Term [Through Today]...
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The 7 am EST regional surface analysis showed a rather ill- defined, quasi- stationary front from the SC coast through north FL, extending westward to the TX coast. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a potent trough centered over NM, with moist southwest flow streaming across the Gulf Coast ahead of it. Although local radars were indicating some low returns over portions of our forecast area, so far this precipitation was too light to overcome the dry zones in between cloud layers. This is likely to continue until this evening. Despite ample clouds, highs today will be a little above average- in the mid 60s around Dothan and Albany to lower 70s around Tallahassee and Cross City.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12Z Friday] VFR cigs will lower to MVFR levels overnight as steady rain develops across the region. Occasional heavy rain and IFR cigs are possible by daybreak Friday.
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&& .Prev Discussion [429 AM EST]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]... A vigorous upper level trough will aid in the development of a surface low west of the area tonight that will move across the area on Friday, bringing the threat of heavy rainfall and maybe a few thunderstorms. Confidence is fairly high that a widespread 1.5-3" rainfall will occur with locally higher amounts. Precipitable water values are expected to rise to around the 99th percentile for January, and a large shield of moderate to heavy rain is likely north of the warm front, which will be situated near the coast. In addition, with the unseasonably high atmospheric moisture content, thunderstorms will be efficient rainfall producers. Most of the guidance members (both global and locally run CAMs) are in decent agreement on the large scale rainfall amounts. The threat of severe storms is much less certain. Currently, the SPC day 2 outlook calls for a marginal risk of severe storms, and this looks reasonable. This is a very typical cool season low CAPE/high shear scenario for our area. If the warm front can lift northward away from the coast, then the threat of severe weather would increase across the area with more instability. However, it is not certain whether or not that will occur. Many times the warm front stays pinned near the coast with the severe threat limited to just the coastal areas. However, this is a fairly dynamic system and shear values will be high, so mesoscale trends will have to be monitored closely on Friday as there could be threat of damaging winds or an isolated tornado or two if enough instability can penetrate inland. This system will begin to exit the area on Friday night with a return to dry conditions on Saturday. .Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]... After the wet system on Friday, upper level northwest flow with a lack of moisture is expected to allow for dry conditions. Temperatures are expected to be seasonal. .Marine... Winds and seas are expected to increase to advisory levels starting this afternoon west of Apalachicola and tonight across the remainder of the area ahead of a strong frontal system. A few gusts could reach gale force late tonight through Friday afternoon. Advisory conditions will continue through Saturday in the wake of the front, though gusts should fall back below gale levels. A brief improvement in conditions is expected for Saturday night and Sunday before a dry cold frontal passage increases the winds and seas again for early next week. .Fire Weather... At this time we are not expecting any fire weather concerns at least through the weekend. .Hydrology... The upcoming system for tonight and Friday is likely to produce a large area of 1.5-3" of rainfall with locally higher amounts. This will cause rivers across the area to rise, but most will likely remain below flood stage. Currently, the most vulnerable areas to minor flooding appear to be the Kinchafoonee near Dawson and the upper Withlacoochee near Valdosta. Ensemble forecasts show the potential for these sites to rise to minor flood stage. The highest rainfall is currently forecast along the Ochlockonee, so sites there may also be more vulnerable to minor flooding.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 70 57 65 52 59 / 0 80 100 50 10 Panama City 67 59 66 50 56 / 10 80 100 40 10 Dothan 65 52 57 45 54 / 10 100 100 40 10 Albany 65 52 57 48 55 / 0 100 100 50 10 Valdosta 69 56 65 54 58 / 0 80 100 70 20 Cross City 72 58 68 58 61 / 10 50 80 80 20 Apalachicola 66 61 67 53 59 / 10 70 100 40 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from Midnight tonight to 7 PM EST Saturday for Apalachee Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...FOURNIER SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM...DVD AVIATION...FOURNIER MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...BARRY HYDROLOGY...MOORE

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