Area Forecast Discussion
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252 FXUS62 KTAE 190035 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 835 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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The 8 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a 1012 mb low pressure system centered near Jackson, MS, with a quasi-stationary front extending southeast from this low across Southeast AL and South GA. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a long wave trough (positively tilted) from Ohio to TX, with moist southwest flow ahead of it over much of the Gulf Coast. The radar network showed a QLCS approaching the western portions of our forecast area, although it was moving into a region of progressively drier, more stable air. The best initialized Convection Allowing Models (mainly the latest HRRR and CONUS WRF ARW) bring this system into primarily the western portions of our forecast area tonight, though they do show a weakening trend. Our latest PoP/QPF reflect these changes, which is quite a bit faster and farther east (with the rain) than what we were thinking earlier.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Sunday]...A few rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the region during the TAF period. An initial round of thunderstorms should approach ECP and DHN this evening from the west around 02-06Z before diminishing. After that, the timing and location of showers and storms becomes less certain, but the current expectation is that additional rain and storms will develop and spread into the area in the early morning hours - beginning first at ECP (possibly as early as 12Z) and then pushing north and east from there. Due to timing uncertainties, periods with chances for showers and storms were indicated in the TAFs with SHRA and VCTS but kept in the VFR flight category. However, in heavier rain or storms, LIFR/IFR visibility will be possible along with some gusty winds. When timing becomes more certain, lower flight categories may be indicated explicitly at a later time.
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&& .Prev Discussion [342 PM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]... The upper trough over the Mississippi Valley today will slide eastward over the weekend bringing a return of unsettled weather to the region. Low to mid level flow will be out of the WSW, a favorable directly for higher coverage of sea breeze convection. However, synoptic influences will also be in play with a remnant front dissecting the CWA and impulses rotating through the mean trough. Deep layer shear will be above typical summertime levels on Saturday. However, mid level lapse rates will be poor and low level instability will be limited by abundant cloud cover. Still, one or two strong storms cannot be ruled out over our FL Panhandle coastal zones and the marine area. A bigger concern will be locally heavy rain. 48-hr QPF could be over 3 inches over our far northwestern zones with a much larger area over 2 inches. PoPs will be in the likely category for most of the area and max temps will mainly be held in the 80s with 90s restricted to the eastern FL Big Bend. Sunday will see more typical distribution of scattered storms and seasonal temps. .Long Term [Monday Through Friday]... A wet pattern will be prevailing over our CWA through the long term as we will be in the weakness between two large longwave ridges, one over the Atlantic, and one over the Western CONUS. This weakness will allow the area to be under the influence of deep layer southerly flow which will give good rain chances for all parts of the forecast region. Further adding to the weakness will be a cut off upper low that the GFS and Euro indicate could drop down from the mean 250mb flow Monday afternoon. As this rotates SW around the ridge, it will further fortify our rain chances throughout the long term especially Monday-Wednesday afternoons. .Marine... Low pressure west of the area will briefly increase winds and seas over the waters west of Apalachicola through Saturday. By Sunday and beyond, a weak pressure pattern more typical for the summer months will return. This will result in light winds and low seas from Sunday through Wednesday. .Fire Weather... Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next several days as moisture levels drastically increase along with rain chances. .Hydrology... Rain chances will increase through the weekend. Isolated rainfall totals in excess of 2 to 4 inches are expected across the western half of the forecast area with lesser amounts of 1 to 2 inches through Sunday night. Rainfall amounts should not be widespread enough to cause any river flooding, though some localized issues in flood prone areas are possible.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 72 89 72 91 73 / 10 70 30 50 40 Panama City 75 86 75 89 76 / 30 70 40 50 40 Dothan 72 87 72 90 72 / 40 70 40 50 30 Albany 73 87 71 91 72 / 20 70 40 50 40 Valdosta 71 89 70 91 72 / 20 50 40 50 40 Cross City 71 91 72 91 72 / 10 40 30 50 40 Apalachicola 75 86 74 90 75 / 10 70 40 50 40
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...FOURNIER SHORT TERM...WOOL LONG TERM...WOOL AVIATION...LAMERS MARINE...WOOL FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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