Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 132052

352 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Deep ridging will continue to build into the area tonight, which
should lead to a night of calm winds, clear skies, and chilly
temperatures yet again. Lows should be in the low-mid 30s, with some
areas of frost expected. With calm winds - similar to last night -
there should be about a 10 degree difference in lows between the TLH
airport and the central part of the city of Tallahassee. Last night
under similar conditions the TLH airport had a low of 31, while our
office at FSU had a low of 42. Overall, temperatures should be a
couple degrees warmer tonight.

.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

High-amplitude upper-level ridging will overspread much of the
eastern third of the country on Sunday. The upper-level pattern
will begin to transition on Monday as a +PV anomaly forces a
shortwave trough into the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. At
the surface, high pressure will remain intact through the day on
Monday, continuing the dry northwest flow on Sunday, and very weak
transitioning flow on Monday. No rain is expected on Sunday or
Monday, with highs gradually moderating to near 70 degrees on
Monday. Overnight lows on Sunday night will remain in the low to
mid 30s.

On Monday night, a somewhat favorable region of upper-level
diffluence will overspread the local area where the northern
stream short-wave and southern stream flow spread apart on the
heels of the departing ridge. However, it appears as though this
synoptic support will arrive prior to the surface front with very
little deep layer moisture or low-level forcing available. Thus no
rain is expected on Monday night, though the veering low-layer
flow should moderate overnight temperatures into the 50s west of
the Apalachicola and Chattahoochee rivers and in the lower to
middle 40s east.

.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

On Tuesday, the aforementioned surface front will press into the
region and will bring a slight chance for some light showers.
Though, as mentioned above, the deep layer forcing will have
outrun the front yielding only shallow forcing immediately along
the front. Rainfall amounts will be less than a quarter of an inch
at best. We`ll finish the week dry, with seasonable afternoon
highs and overnight lows. The next chance for rain will come next
weekend as another shortwave moves into the eastern half of the


[Through 18Z Sunday]

Clear skies, VFR, with light winds through the remainder of the
TAF period.



Sub-headline level northwest winds will continue through Sunday
night before veering southerly late on Monday through the first
part of Tuesday. On Tuesday, a cold front will pass through the
northeast Gulf and may increase winds briefly to cautionary
levels. Light winds and low seas will then prevail to finish the


.Fire Weather...

Fair weather will continue through Monday, with a gradual warming
and moistening trend, especially during the afternoons. With a
high pressure system remaining in place, surface and transport
winds, as well as daytime mixing heights, will remain low. This
combination will keep daytime dispersion values at unusually low



Dry weather is expected for much of the next week. The only
exception will be when a quarter-inch or less of rain will be
possible on Tuesday. Though, area rivers should remain rather
steady state.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   33  68  36  70  45 /   0   0   0   0  10
Panama City   42  63  45  67  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        36  63  39  68  51 /   0   0   0   0  20
Albany        32  65  36  68  46 /   0   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      33  66  37  68  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
Cross City    32  68  35  69  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  40  65  44  66  53 /   0   0   0   0  10


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...




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