Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
926 FXUS62 KTAE 231413 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1013 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2014 ...Dangerous Heat Wave Will Continue Today... .Near Term [Through Today]...
-- Changed Discussion --
The main focus this afternoon will once again be on both record high temperatures and excessive heat indices. This morning`s water vapor analysis depict a bit more dry air across a larger portion of the Tri-State region. This will eventually translate to lower dewpoints, at least across Georgia and Alabama, than yesterday. Although this would tend to support a reduced threat for dangerous heat index values over these areas, we started out much warmer than yesterday morning and are still forecast to reach highs near 100 degrees. Essentially what this means is that across Georgia and Alabama, expect heat indices to be their highest (btwn 108-110) in the late morning and early afternoon, gradually decreasing thereafter. Elsewhere, dewpoints will remain relatively high and be slower to mix out. All of north Florida should expect heat indices above 108 for a long duration today. Nearer to the coast and along the Panhandle, expect excessive heat index values (btwn 110 and 114), due to the fact that mixing won`t be as effective and the overall proximity to the Gulf. Precipitable water values this morning were similar to yesterday, and slightly below average. This is most likely due to the instrument sampling along the edge of the slightly more moist airmass west of the Apalachicola River, and the drier air to the east. This will keep the overall coverage of storms down from normal this afternoon, though still expect a scattering of storms to be confined to mainly north Florida along the seabreeze. Some gusty winds will be possible with the strongest storms due to the drier mid-level air in place.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Aviation...
-- Changed Discussion --
[Through 12Z Sunday]... VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Prev Discussion [437 AM EDT]...
-- Changed Discussion --
.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]... The ridge center will move further west of the region by Sunday as a large trough slides down the east coast. This will push a backdoor front into the region by Sunday evening. Ahead of this boundary, expect scattered thunderstorms to develop late in the afternoon. Some of these storms could be strong given how unstable the airmass is anticipated to be ahead of the boundary. Temperatures will still be hot, but a couple degrees cooler than the past few days. A heat advisory may be needed for a portion of the region on Sunday afternoon, but with the increased rain chances, confidence isn`t high enough to extend the heat advisory into Sunday at this time. By Monday, the models begin to differ on how much drier air comes in from the northeast. Our region will be between the large ridge across the Mid Mississippi River Valley a tropical disturbance east of the Bahamas. Rain chances should be less on Monday afternoon with some drier air working into the region. Additionally, temperatures should cool a few more degrees with highs generally in the mid 90s. .Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]... The aforementioned front will finish its passage through our region by Monday evening bringing with it drier air and more seasonable afternoon high temperatures. By mid to late week, scattered sea breeze storms should be expected once again. .Marine... Light winds and seas will remain in place through the weekend. Easterly winds will increase on Monday as the gradient tightens between an area of high pressure across the Mid Atlantic States and a tropical disturbance east of the Bahamas. A period of cautionary conditions looks certain beginning Monday and continuing through at least Tuesday. .Fire Weather...With plenty of heat and high humidity, no Red Flag conditions are expected anytime in the near future. .Hydrology... Widely scattered showers and storms can be expected through most of the weekend. On Sunday, a front will pass through the region from northeast to southwest bringing with it a good chance for rain for most locations across the Tri-State region. However, rainfall amounts will be insignificant and all area rivers will remain below action stage.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
-- Changed Discussion --
Tallahassee 101 77 98 75 94 / 30 10 40 40 20 Panama City 96 80 96 80 91 / 30 10 20 40 20 Dothan 101 76 99 75 93 / 20 10 40 40 10 Albany 101 77 97 74 92 / 10 10 50 40 10 Valdosta 101 74 97 73 92 / 20 10 50 40 10 Cross City 98 75 97 74 93 / 50 10 40 40 20 Apalachicola 95 80 94 81 91 / 40 10 30 40 20
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
-- Changed Discussion --
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for Coastal Dixie-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Dixie-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon- Liberty-Madison. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin- Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-South Walton- Washington. GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Ben Hill- Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty- Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell- Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth. AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Coffee-Dale-Geneva- Henry-Houston. GM...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN SHORT TERM...GODSEY LONG TERM...HARRIGAN AVIATION...HARRIGAN MARINE...GODSEY FIRE WEATHER...GOULD HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.