Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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970 FXUS62 KTAE 282005 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 405 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 .NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
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A COOL AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH A STRONG TROUGH PARKED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WITH LIGHT WINDS, TEMPERATURES MAY REACH TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GOING ANY LOWER. .SHORT TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. COMBINED WITH THE DEPARTING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, THIS SIGNALS A WARMING TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUR AREA SHOULD BE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET; THUS DESPITE THE WEAKENING TREND OF THE FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH QG FORCING FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE 09Z SREF MEAN AND 12Z GFS INDICATE AROUND 500 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR...A SOMEWHAT MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COMBINATION THAT COULD YIELD A FEW STRONG STORMS. CONVECTION SHOULD BE MOST VIGOROUS AND WIDESPREAD IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. .LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]... THE WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT MAY LINGER AROUND THE REGION FOR A COUPLE DAYS BEFORE ULTIMATELY DISSIPATING AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT ON DETAILS...ENOUGH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE INDICATING LIGHT QPF TO WARRANT SOME SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE MOST LIKELY 24-HOUR WINDOW FOR DRY WEATHER WOULD BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY LATER IN THE WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION...
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[THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH ONLY MID AND UPPER CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
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&& .MARINE...
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QUIESCENT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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A VERY DRY AIR MASS EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED. PREDICTED FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS ARE JUST HIGH ENOUGH IN LEON AND WAKULLA COUNTIES TO REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA. THIS IS NOT THE CASE IN OTHER COUNTIES. MOISTURE LEVELS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY...HOWEVER TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH ALL RIVERS BELOW FLOOD STAGE THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TALLAHASSEE 38 69 45 78 58 / 0 0 10 20 20 PANAMA CITY 45 66 57 74 63 / 0 0 10 20 20 DOTHAN 36 66 49 77 56 / 0 0 10 50 20 ALBANY 36 65 46 77 53 / 0 0 10 40 20 VALDOSTA 37 67 43 76 54 / 0 0 10 20 20 CROSS CITY 37 68 41 75 57 / 0 0 0 10 10 APALACHICOLA 43 65 55 74 63 / 0 0 0 20 20
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&& .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WAKULLA-INLAND WAKULLA-LEON. RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WAKULLA- INLAND WAKULLA. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...CAMP SHORT TERM...LAMERS LONG TERM...LAMERS AVIATION...CAMP MARINE...LAMERS FIRE WEATHER...WOOL HYDROLOGY...WESTON

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