Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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367 FXUS62 KTAE 160150 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 950 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015 .NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
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AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS MOSTLY DIMINISHED...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ONE CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN LIBERTY AND GADSDEN COUNTIES. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. LATER TONIGHT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL PUSH A COOL WEDGE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR REGION...RESULTING IN EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS MAY BE A BIT TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
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&& .AVIATION...
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[THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY] AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...AND EXPECT MVFR AND EVENTUALLY LIFR CEILINGS TO RETURN TO ALL SITES LATER TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z. THEN...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 18Z.
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&& .PREV DISCUSSION [318 PM EDT]...
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.SHORT TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]... THE LARGE SCALE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL FEATURE A MEAN BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, AND A MOIST SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM FROM HI TO THE GULF COAST. THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST PWAT VALUES ARE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO FOR OUR REGION, SO WE EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF OUR RECENT WARM, WET WEATHER PATTERN. DESPITE THESE UNUSUALLY HIGH PWAT VALUES, WE DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME, BECAUSE WE DO NOT DETECT A WELL- DEFINED FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN; JUST DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES, AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO TIME. THIS IS NOT TO SAY THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS UNLIKELY...A FEW SITES MAY GET RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING 4 INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY. IT`S JUST THAT THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS LOW. THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LOW GIVEN THE UNIMPRESSIVE BULK SHEAR AND CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY. .LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]... THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL FINALLY (ALBEIT SLOWLY) LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THIS FRONT WON`T CLEAR OUR AREA UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING, MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL WILL BEGIN TO LOWER OUR RAIN CHANCES AS EARLY AS MONDAY. POPS WILL BE 20 PERCENT OR LESS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WON`T BE THAT MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT THE LOWER HUMIDITY WILL MAKE IT FEEL A LITTLE MORE LIKE APRIL THAN JUNE. UNTIL MONDAY, THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN WET AND WARM. .MARINE... LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL VEER TO THE EAST BY THURSDAY, AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND. .FIRE WEATHER... RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH HIGH RH EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD STAY HIGH. .HYDROLOGY... RECENT HEAVY RAINS IN THE FL PANHANDLE, SOUTHEAST AL, AND SOUTHWEST GA HAVE RESULTED IN SOME SHARP RISES IN LOCAL RIVER STAGES. HOWEVER, OUR EASTERN RIVERS REMAIN MOSTLY UNAFFECTED. WE EXPECT MOST OF THE RIVER STAGES TO REMAIN BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION STAGES, THOUGH THIS COULD CHANGE IF BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN SET UP OVER A PARTICULAR RIVER BASIN.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TALLAHASSEE 69 81 66 80 65 / 60 60 50 50 30 PANAMA CITY 69 78 69 77 68 / 30 60 60 50 30 DOTHAN 66 77 63 76 63 / 30 60 60 50 40 ALBANY 65 76 62 75 63 / 30 50 50 50 40 VALDOSTA 68 80 65 78 64 / 50 50 50 50 30 CROSS CITY 69 84 67 82 65 / 50 60 40 50 30 APALACHICOLA 71 79 70 78 69 / 30 60 50 50 30
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&& .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DVD SHORT TERM...FOURNIER LONG TERM...FOURNIER AVIATION...DVD MARINE...FOURNIER FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER

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