Area Forecast Discussion
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847 FXUS62 KTAE 170638 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 238 AM EDT Sun Aug 17 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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The 10 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a weak warm front from south GA to AR, which separated a maritime tropical airmass (typical for the Gulf Coast this time of year) to the south from warm, relatively dry air to the north. The western extent of the Bermuda ridge was building across the southern FL Peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a ridge that was nearly coincident with the aforementioned surface ridge, a belt of westerlies across much of the Southeast, and a weak short wave trough over the FL Panhandle. The zone of abnormally-low PWAT values across our forecast area on Saturday were beginning to retreat to the northeast, as PWAT values over the FL Panhandle were already near climatology, with even (somewhat) higher values upstream across the central Gulf Coast. We expect a return to more typical summertime rain chances today as the warm front lifts north of our area and deep layer moisture and CAPE return. The highest PoP, 50%, is along and west of a line from Tallahassee to Dothan. The PoP decreases to 20% around Albany, Tifton, and Cross City, where the moisture will take longer to return and mesoscale forcing will be lacking. This forecast is a blend of the latest GFS, NAM, and ECMWF MOS and locally-run Ensemble of Convection Allowing Models (ECAM). Although the large-scale environment doesn`t appear favorable for organized severe storms (due to relatively weak winds aloft and a lack of forcing), some of the CAMs are forecasting updrafts of 24 m/s (where the highest PoP is). This suggests at least a small chance (5% within 25 miles of a point) of a marginally severe thunderstorm this afternoon. High temperatures will be in the mid 90s inland; around 90 at the beaches. .Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]... Monday will feature a blend of early morning offshore convection, followed by the seabreeze front generating storms over land during the afternoon. In the southwesterly flow regime, depending upon how much offshore convection moves inland early on, it could disrupt a well defined seabreeze front. This would mean that we may receive most of our storms early in the day rather than later. Regardless of exactly how this plays out, the best coverage of storms will be across north Florida and extreme southwest Georgia. Monday night into Tuesday morning as shortwave will brush our northern Georgia and Alabama counties and provide a chance for showers and thunderstorms overnight. The shortwave will elongate over the region on Tuesday and provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms. Expect a widespread scattering of storms on Tuesday, not related to the seabreeze. .Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]... Stacked high pressure through the period will allow the sea-breeze circulation will once again become the main driving force for our local weather. With a drier than normal airmass in place, chances will be somewhat lower than climo and temperatures will be slightly warmer than climo. Highs will be in the mid 90s, low 90s along the immediate coast, and lows will be in the mid 70s, upper 70s along the immediate coast.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 06Z Monday] VFR conditions and light winds are expected- except for brief periods of MVFR vis around dawn. Scattered SHRA/TSRA will develop near the FL Panhandle coast around dawn, then spread inland. KECP has the highest chance of SHRA/TSRA in the morning, and KTLH and KDHN in the afternoon. Elsewhere we expect the storms to be more isolated. Winds across the region will be SW around 10 KT by late morning, except briefly stronger and gusty in TSRA.
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&& .Marine...
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Modest southwesterly flow will near cautionary levels at times over the next couple of days. This will be especially true in the afternoon near the coast. By Wednesday, the surface ridge should move closer to our waters, yielding calming winds. Expect widespread morning showers and thunderstorms for at least the next few mornings.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Red Flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Significant rainfall is not expected over the next several days and all area rivers should remain below action stage.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 95 75 93 75 95 / 50 20 60 10 40 Panama City 89 79 90 79 90 / 50 20 50 20 30 Dothan 93 75 94 75 93 / 50 30 50 20 40 Albany 96 75 94 76 94 / 20 30 40 20 40 Valdosta 95 73 94 74 95 / 30 20 60 10 40 Cross City 93 74 92 74 93 / 20 20 50 20 20 Apalachicola 89 79 90 80 90 / 30 30 40 20 30
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...FOURNIER SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...FOURNIER MARINE...HARRIGAN FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN

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