Area Forecast Discussion
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814 FXUS62 KTAE 240344 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1044 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2015 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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With some fairly strong cold air advection developing off to our west, it appears that the bulk of the Numerical Models have been a bit underdone in bringing the CAA further off to the S and E. Therefore, used a blend of the ADJECE and the ADJMEN for overnight low temps tonight, which appears to better capture the significantly colder temps over western portions of the CWA. Over portions of SE AL and far western portions of the FL Panhandle, temps could bottom out in the mid to upper 30s, though it should be noted that NO precip of the frozen variety is expected. Further to the east, lows will gradually climb into the 40s with even some lower 50s over the far SE FL Big Bend. Did not make any changes to PoPs, as the currently widespread likely category looks good at this time, with just a few areas of chance PoPs well to the south.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Wednesday] Fairly gloomy Taf fcst over the next 24 hrs, as plenty of low cigs, light rain and MVFR level Vis moves in from the west. Cigs are expected to vary from MVFR to IFR for much of the period, but gradually improve to MVFR and VFR from west to east during the afternoon hours on Tuesday.
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&& .Prev Discussion [424 PM EST]...
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.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]... Stationary frontal boundary will remain in place along the Gulf Coast on Tuesday as the surface high pressure to the north rapidly weakens. Showers will be ongoing at the beginning of the period as a jet streak passes north of the forecast area. However, cyclogenesis occurs off the southeast coast during the day, the focus for precip will shift quickly east with limited rainfall coverage expected by the afternoon. The cooler airmass to the north of the front will hold temperatures in the lower to mid 50s across the northern and western portion of the forecast area, with upper 50s and lower 60s to the south of the boundary in the Big Bend. Highs right along the boundary will be tricky with any undulations having a significant impact on temperatures. By Wednesday, a shortwave ejecting from the southwestern states will force low pressure to develop over the western Gulf. The low is forecast to track just offshore and then into the southeastern Big Bend Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Divergence aloft coupled with strong isentropic lift (thanks to a 50-60 knots 850mb jet) will provide plenty of forcing for widespread rain on Wednesday. A stripe of widespread 2-3 inch rainfall totals are likely somewhere, with current indications favoring the Big Bend into South Central Georgia for the heaviest rainfall. .Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]... Seasonably cool and dry weather will be on tap to start the extended period as the previously mentioned system exits the region. The upper flow along the Gulf Coast is forecast to return to a zonal configuration pretty quickly behind this system, keeping the bulk of the arctic air confined well north of the area. Should see a warming trend kick in by the weekend as heights begin to rise and high temperatures reach back into the mid to upper 60s. .Marine... Winds will gradually diminish through the overnight hours as a cold front stalls over the waters. Conditions will remain below headline levels until Wednesday, when winds and seas will increase ahead of a low pressure system moving across the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure will build in behind the low pressure, keeping winds and seas elevated into the weekend. .Fire Weather... No hazardous fire weather conditions are expected over the next several days due to a series of frontal systems that will bring rain to the area Tuesday and Wednesday. .Hydrology... On Wednesday, a low pressure system is poised to bring moderate to heavy rainfall to the area with widespread totals in the 2-3" range and isolated higher totals possible. This will cause several of our area rivers to rise into action stage. At this time, flooding is not expected, but if widespread rainfall amounts exceed 3 inches, then the Kinchafoonee Creek and Ochlockonee, Aucilla, and upper Withlacoochee River basins could approach minor flood stage.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 46 58 47 55 45 / 60 60 30 90 80 Panama City 45 54 45 56 45 / 50 50 40 90 60 Dothan 38 50 41 45 37 / 70 60 30 90 60 Albany 40 53 41 48 38 / 70 70 20 90 70 Valdosta 45 56 46 56 44 / 70 70 30 90 80 Cross City 53 62 49 62 53 / 30 30 30 70 80 Apalachicola 50 59 49 61 45 / 40 50 40 90 70
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...GOULD SHORT TERM...CAMP LONG TERM...CAMP AVIATION...GOULD MARINE...CAMP FIRE WEATHER...CAMP/MERRIFIELD HYDROLOGY...MOORE

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