Area Forecast Discussion
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132 FXUS62 KTAE 200216 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1016 PM EDT Sun Oct 19 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Current fcst is well on track, and only minor tweaks were made. Under clear to mostly clear skies and fairly dry air, low temps should bottom out in the upper 40s to the lower 50s away from the coast.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Tuesday] VFR conditions with light winds and sct cirrus are expected to prevail at the terminals through the period. There is a slight chance of MVFR Vis at VLD late tonight, but kept the Vis no lower than 6SM for this package.
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&& .Prev Discussion [238 PM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Monday through Tuesday night]... The mean upper trough east of the area will reamplify during the short range as a shortwave dives southeast and affects the area on Monday. The lack of significant moisture return should still allow for mainly dry conditions, although some of the local CAM runs indicate a few isolated showers may be possible along the coast. With such a dry airmass in place right now, the official forecast will limit PoPs over land to 20 percent right along the coast around Apalachicola and Saint George Island for Monday. The airmass will modify slightly with highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s on Monday becoming lower to mid 80s on Tuesday. .Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]... The prevailing pattern will feature dry, northwest aloft through most of the period with the mean upper level trough axis east of the area. PoPs still look like they will remain mostly below 20 percent with temperatures near average during the day and a few degrees below average at night with the dry air in place. At the end of the period, the guidance diverges with the 19/00z ECMWF cutting off an upper low with unsettled conditions while the GFS keeps things dry. The ensemble spread is large, and a 20 PoP was introduced for Sunday. .Marine... A brief easterly surge is possible tonight over the eastern waters. Thereafter, winds and seas will be minimal through Tuesday, before northeasterly flow increases again mid-week. .Fire Weather... Although afternoon relative humidities will be fairly low over the next several days, it will not be quite dry enough to cause any fire weather concerns. .Hydrology... Dry weather is expected for the next several days with no flooding concerns.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 53 81 56 85 53 / 0 10 0 0 0 Panama City 59 80 61 82 59 / 0 10 10 0 0 Dothan 50 78 52 81 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 48 79 52 83 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 52 81 56 83 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cross City 55 84 58 85 54 / 0 10 10 0 0 Apalachicola 60 79 62 81 59 / 10 20 10 10 0 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...GOULD SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM...DVD AVIATION...GOULD MARINE...DVD/GOULD FIRE WEATHER...GOULD HYDROLOGY...DVD

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