Area Forecast Discussion
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072 FXUS62 KTAE 270047 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 847 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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The 8 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed an area of high pressure centered in the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Most of the troposphere in our region remained very dry, but there has been an increase in shallow moisture in the boundary layer. With calm winds and clear skies, there could be some patchy fog around dawn, especially in the river valleys. Lows will be near average- generally in the 50s.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Tuesday] Patchy fog is expected around dawn Monday, with mainly MVFR Vis restrictions likely at all sites except KDHN (where the airmass is likely to be drier). Unrestricted Vis and unlimited cigs are expected by mid Morning, lasting through the day Monday.
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&& .Prev Discussion [251 PM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]... Stacked high pressure will move eastward across the area early this week ahead of our next cold front. With clear skies and weak winds, temperatures will rise to the mid to upper 80s on Monday, dipping to the mid to upper 50s Monday night. As winds shift to the south and cloud cover begins to increase ahead of our next cold front, temperatures Tuesday will stay in the low to mid 80s during the day, cooling to the upper 50s to low 60s overnight. .Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]... An upper level trough crossing over the eastern CONUS will help push through our next cold front on Wednesday. This next system will have very little energy and will likely only bring us light rain with the highest chances for rain (40%) in our northern zones. Highs will be in the low 80s Wednesday as the front crosses through, cooling to the 70s Thursday and Friday and cooling further into the upper 60s over the weekend as a dry cold front pushes into the southeast. Lows will be in the mid 50s Wednesday night, upper 40s to low 50s Thursday night, and dipping further into the lower 40s over the weekend. .Marine... Light and variable winds tonight will shift to the south and increase to around 10 knots Monday ahead of our next cold front which will cross the area on Wednesday. Winds will shift to north in the wake of the cold front and will remain below headline criteria through Thursday. After a dry cold front, winds may approach advisory conditions next weekend. .Fire Weather... Fair and mild weather will continue through Tuesday, with no Red Flag conditions expected. A cold front will move through the region mid week, bringing with it a modest chance for rain. .Hydrology... Our next chance for rain is Wednesday, but rainfall totals are expected to be below 0.5". With area rivers currently well below flood stage and low QPF in the forecast, no flooding is expected.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 54 86 54 85 58 / 0 0 0 0 10 Panama City 62 82 64 82 66 / 0 0 0 10 20 Dothan 56 87 57 83 61 / 0 0 0 10 20 Albany 56 88 55 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 10 Valdosta 55 87 55 84 58 / 0 0 0 0 10 Cross City 52 85 53 85 57 / 0 0 0 0 10 Apalachicola 61 81 62 81 64 / 0 0 0 0 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...FOURNIER SHORT TERM...MOORE LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...FOURNIER MARINE...MOORE FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER HYDROLOGY...MOORE

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