Area Forecast Discussion
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811
FXUS62 KTAE 231929
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
329 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET WITH A DRY NIGHT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
AROUND 50 ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST.

.SHORT TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN BACK
SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING TROUGH THROUGH THE
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE TRAPPED UNDER THE SHALLOW INVERSION TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS, ESPECIALLY OUR NORTHEAST ZONES. ON
WEDNESDAY, THE WEDGE BEGINS TO BREAK AS THE HIGH RETREATS INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. INCREASING INSOLATION ALONG WITH ONSHORE FLOW
WILL ELEVATE TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S MOST INLAND AREAS.
THE WARMER TEMPS AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EASTWARD FROM THE
PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE...IN THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S
TO MID 60S FOR LOWS. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL ONLY BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER
40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY] ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KECP WILL BEGIN THE
PERIOD IN IFR CONDITIONS, IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, AND RETURN
TO IFR OVERNIGHT. SOME TERMINALS MAY EXPERIENCE LIFR CONDITIONS IN
THE HOURS LEADING UP TO AND AROUND SUNRISE. CEILINGS WILL THEN
RETURN TO MVFR DURING THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN
ELEVATE TO AT LEAST CAUTIONARY LEVELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL AND KEEP AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WELL AWAY FROM RED FLAG LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

24-HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 0.25 TO 1.0 INCH
RANGE FROM ABOUT I-10 NORTHWARD...EXCEPT IN THE FL PANHANDLE
WHERE THERE WAS A NARROW BAND OF 1 TO 3 INCHES FROM DESTIN TO JUST
WEST OF BLOUNTSTOWN. ELSEWHERE RAIN AMOUNTS WERE LESS THAN 0.25
INCHES. TODAYS RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN HALF
AN INCH...WITH MOST OF THIS RAIN IN THE REGION THAT DID NOT GET
MUCH RAIN SUNDAY. THESE AMOUNTS WILL CAUSE SOME RISES ON THE LOCAL
RIVERS...BUT FLOODING IS NOT LIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   55  77  56  83  58 /  10   0   0  20  10
PANAMA CITY   57  73  60  76  61 /  10   0  10  10  10
DOTHAN        51  75  55  79  56 /  10   0   0  20  10
ALBANY        50  70  55  80  56 /  10   0   0  20  20
VALDOSTA      52  76  56  83  58 /  10   0   0  20  20
CROSS CITY    56  79  57  85  60 /  10   0   0  20  20
APALACHICOLA  59  74  62  75  62 /  10   0  10  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...DVD/MERRIFIELD
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN/MERRIFIELD
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER



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